Kachook

Member
First Name
Geo
Joined
Apr 28, 2021
Messages
15
Reaction score
4
Location
Houston, TX
First Name
Geo
Vehicles
Audi Q5 TDI, Honda Odyssey and Porsche Cayenne
So, I just placed my DP in mid-March of 21 for an R1S. Realistic chance I will see my vehicle in 2022?
 

txtravwill

Well-Known Member
First Name
Travis
Joined
Feb 18, 2021
Messages
109
Reaction score
126
Location
Marble Falls, TX
First Name
Travis
Vehicles
BMW X5, BMW X3, Ford F-150
Occupation
IT Software PM/Manager
So, I just placed my DP in mid-March of 21 for an R1S. Realistic chance I will see my vehicle in 2022?

Probably pretty good. It is hard to tell how many total R1S orders there are, and if mostly everyone with a preorder was able to configure a Launch Edition, or if it cut off before everyone did. I'd estimate still in Q1/Q2 2022 for ya, that's my take. They don't have nearly as many orders as I think they lead on to - they will get a lot of NEW orders when owners get on the road and people see the cars, reviews come out, showrooms go up, etc.
 

electruck

Well-Known Member
Joined
Oct 6, 2019
Messages
1,273
Reaction score
2,001
Location
Dallas, TX
Vehicles
2018 Volvo XC60
They don't have nearly as many orders as I think they lead on to
Interesting statement about a company that is keeping that info a closely guarded secret and has only stated that they are extremely pleased with the number of orders. Public speculation on the other hand......
 

cwoodcox

Well-Known Member
First Name
Corey
Joined
Mar 31, 2021
Messages
174
Reaction score
185
Location
Montreal, QC
First Name
Corey
Vehicles
2012 Ford Expedition
Occupation
Software Engineer
So, I just placed my DP in mid-March of 21 for an R1S. Realistic chance I will see my vehicle in 2022?
I’m in the same boat, I’m not planning on mine until Jan 2023
 

St Bernard

Well-Known Member
Joined
Aug 25, 2020
Messages
93
Reaction score
90
Location
Ca
Vehicles
BMW, PRIUS,
Probably pretty good. It is hard to tell how many total R1S orders there are, and if mostly everyone with a preorder was able to configure a Launch Edition, or if it cut off before everyone did. I'd estimate still in Q1/Q2 2022 for ya, that's my take. They don't have nearly as many orders as I think they lead on to - they will get a lot of NEW orders when owners get on the road and people see the cars, reviews come out, showrooms go up, etc.
I agree with you about the number of pre-orders. I’m not aware of many people, on this Forum, stating they they tried to get an LE when the system opened up ordering and were unable to get one. If they had more than 20,000 total orders (of which 10,000 people actually ordered an LE) they would have closed the LE order window early. If someone could order an LE in late Nov and get delivery in the first production Cycle you have to wonder how many preorders they really have. We will never know as RIVIAN is so secretive about everything. I’m happy that they did not have so many preorders as I didn’t place a deposit until 9/20 and I expect to get an RIS in Nov/Dec.
 

Kachook

Member
First Name
Geo
Joined
Apr 28, 2021
Messages
15
Reaction score
4
Location
Houston, TX
First Name
Geo
Vehicles
Audi Q5 TDI, Honda Odyssey and Porsche Cayenne
While on balance, I like the R1S better than the Model X, I think if I have to wait 6 months v. 1 year and 8 months, I would lean towards the Model X or maybe even the Model Y as a placeholder.
 

DuckTruck

Well-Known Member
First Name
Duck
Joined
Dec 23, 2020
Messages
872
Reaction score
1,571
Location
PNW
First Name
Duck
Vehicles
Corvair, BMW325, Acura Legend, XC60, '16 Caddy ELR
Once they file their S-1 we will know everything.
For all of their secrets, I think they've been pretty clear that they expect all L.E. orders to be filled this year, right?
 

stevegshi

Member
First Name
Steve
Joined
Sep 2, 2019
Messages
17
Reaction score
14
Location
20164
First Name
Steve
Vehicles
Tesla Model 3, Ram 1500
Occupation
Electrical Engr. & Contractor, Master Electrician
For all of their secrets, I think they've been pretty clear that they expect all L.E. orders to be filled this year, right?
I remember they said that too. Based on my experience getting my 2018 Model 3, I expect they will rotate the production batches through different builds. For example, they would build Launch Green with Black Interior for 3-weeks or for 1,500 units, then switch to Forest Green with Black Interior for the next 3-wk or 1,500 units. Then select the area where it is easier for them to service for first delivery (close-factory, show rooms, mobile service availability), it is within a particular delivery area, the time of reservation then comes to play as to decide who gets their vehicle first. That means if I were someone living close to the factory or in Chicago area, it would be a guarantee for taking delivery sooner comparing with others who reserve the same configuration at the same time frame.
 

timf

Well-Known Member
First Name
Tim
Joined
May 3, 2019
Messages
205
Reaction score
302
Location
Plymouth, MI
First Name
Tim
Vehicles
Tesla Model X
I remember they said that too. Based on my experience getting my 2018 Model 3, I expect they will rotate the production batches through different builds. For example, they would build Launch Green with Black Interior for 3-weeks or for 1,500 units, then switch to Forest Green with Black Interior for the next 3-wk or 1,500 units. Then select the area where it is easier for them to service for first delivery (close-factory, show rooms, mobile service availability), it is within a particular delivery area, the time of reservation then comes to play as to decide who gets their vehicle first. That means if I were someone living close to the factory or in Chicago area, it would be a guarantee for taking delivery sooner comparing with others who reserve the same configuration at the same time frame.
The concept of building vehicles in batches is often exaggerated. They aren't going to build one color exclusively for a week, and in fact may do a few switches each day. The batching also does not necessarily carry through to the final assembly line. They could have a batch of pre-painted shells of several different colors, and then mix them up for final assembly. I've never seen an automotive line where there was a continuous series of identical vehicles on the final assembly line.
 

stevegshi

Member
First Name
Steve
Joined
Sep 2, 2019
Messages
17
Reaction score
14
Location
20164
First Name
Steve
Vehicles
Tesla Model 3, Ram 1500
Occupation
Electrical Engr. & Contractor, Master Electrician
The concept of building vehicles in batches is often exaggerated. They aren't going to build one color exclusively for a week, and in fact may do a few switches each day. The batching also does not necessarily carry through to the final assembly line. They could have a batch of pre-painted shells of several different colors, and then mix them up for final assembly. I've never seen an automotive line where there was a continuous series of identical vehicles on the final assembly line.
If you were one of the first people who received the Tesla Model 3, you would know better. Up to this point, Rivian has been ‘copying’ everything Tesla did, I expect they will do the same to ramp their production. We will see for sure.
 

CommodoreAmiga

Well-Known Member
Joined
Dec 30, 2020
Messages
934
Reaction score
1,397
Location
USA
Vehicles
N/A
If you were one of the first people who received the Tesla Model 3, you would know better. Up to this point, Rivian has been ‘copying’ everything Tesla did, I expect they will do the same to ramp their production. We will see for sure.
I wouldn't say they've copied everything. To the contrary, Tesla went out of their way NOT to do things like any established manufacturer. In many cases, this was to their detriment. Rivian seems to be analyzing traditional manufacturer techniques and mirroring them when it makes sense, and deviating when they think it makes sense to. I have high hopes with Rivian manufacturing -- they don't seem to suffer from the "not invented here" syndrome, except when it comes to CarPlay. (Trigger moans/groans from the peanut gallery).
 

ajbrutman

Well-Known Member
First Name
Aiden
Joined
Aug 4, 2020
Messages
50
Reaction score
56
Location
california
First Name
Aiden
Vehicles
LE R1T, GTI
Fellow Rivian Folks,

Like most of you, I am waiting to get my Rivian. I came up with a rough analysis on the reservation numbers based on a few threads in this forum and triangulating the data with some publicly available information. I am pretty amateurish in my calculation and feel free to provide feedback. I did all the data collection over the spring break as I have been trying to grasp when will my R1S come :) . Total effort about 6 hours for data scrubbing.

Input Threads:

  1. https://www.rivianforums.com/forum/threads/rivian-waiting-room-have-you-pre-ordered-with-deposit.43/
  2. https://www.rivianforums.com/forum/threads/when-did-you-pre-order-your-rivian.422/
  3. https://www.rivianforums.com/forum/threads/rivian-annual-production-target.90/post-590

Assumptions to calculate order placement date if not called out in Thread # 422.

  • Looked at the date of joining the Rivian forum and subtracted a month from it to be the tentative date of order placement.
  • If the subtraction went prior to Nov 27th , 2018, I placed made the date as 11/30.
  • I researched on most of the members in thread 43 and in case a member has mentioned the month of order placement in some other thread, then I took the end of the month as the date. Example: If xyz said 'In faith I placed my order last July' , then I took it to be July 31st 2019.
  • Some of the members who have answered these threads do not have the location mentioned so I have marked the location of those as 'Navbl - not available',
  • For others, tried my best to narrow down to the State, Country.
  • In thread 43, if someone has stated they have not yet decided but later on in one of the forum posts they have leaned towards R1S or R1T, I have moved them to one of the vehicles and removed them from the undecided status.
So first a look at the reservation data.


Total Pre-orders found in the forum: 231

Vehicle ModelCount of Vehicle
R1S
99​
R1S/R1T
12​
R1T
120​

rivian reservations by model breakdown.png


Reservation by Country of Forum Members:

1587351826659.png




Reservation by State of Forum Members:

Rivian reservations orders by state.png


Also, giving the data for the graph below.

CountryStateR1SR1S/R1T (Undecided)R1T
CanadaAB
1​
1​
1​
CanadaQC
1​
1​
USAIA
1​
1​
USAMA
1​
1​
USAMD
1​
1​
1​
USAPA
1​
1​
USAMN
1​
2​
USAOH
1​
2​
USAVA
1​
2​
USACO
1​
3​
USAMI
1​
4​
USANC
1​
4​
CanadaNS
1​
USADC
1​
USANE
1​
USACT
2​
1​
USAGA
2​
1​
USAAZ
2​
1​
3​
USANJ
2​
3​
USAOR
2​
3​
USASC
2​
3​
USANV
2​
USAWI
2​
CanadaBC
3​
2​
USAUT
3​
USANY
5​
1​
3​
USANavbl
5​
6​
USAIL
7​
5​
USAWA
10​
8​
USATX
10​
1​
14​
USAFL
11​
9​
USACA
14​
6​
21​
AustraliaAU-VIC
1​
USADE
1​
USAHI
1​
USAKS
1​
USALA
1​
USAMS
1​
USAMT
1​
USANH
1​
USATN
1​
CanadaON
2​
USAID
2​
USAME
2​
USAPR
1​



Now comes the Most interesting Part:

When were the orders placed
by the members in the forum who have responded to both these threads.

Rivian reservations time placed.png


YearR1SR1S/R1TR1TGrand Total
2018
9​
18​
27​
Qtr4
9​
18​
27​
2019
79​
10​
90​
179​
Qtr1
26​
5​
43​
74​
Qtr2
26​
1​
17​
44​
Qtr3
18​
1​
19​
38​
Qtr4
9​
3​
11​
23​
2020
11​
2​
12​
25​
Qtr1
10​
2​
12​
24​
Qtr2
1​
1​
Grand Total
99​
12​
120​
231


Now, in a public article, by Frost and Sullivan, Rivian has about 10K orders as of Feb 2020. That means that the count of pre-orders in the forum amount to 2.31 % of the total orders. This also matches what RJ has been telling in other forums 'We have 10s of thousands of orders'........just rounding it to 10K here for the sake of calculation.

So, I have overlaid the other 97.3% of orders on top of the 231 orders but in the same frequency of the order date. Please note, that there is a huge margin of assumption over here and I did not figure out any other way to overlay that data.

So, this is what it would look like.

Rivian estimated delivery timeline.png



Next I proceeded to find out what would be the wait time for someone who has placed an order till date. Copying the table over messes up the formatting so I am pasting the picture below. The only difference to the table above is I have calculated the total per quarter and they are color coded on the right. The color coding will came handy in the next few seconds so plz bear with me.

1587352983844.png



Now, I made some assumptions to calculate what would be the throughput of the assembly line. Due to the pandemic, it is fair to assume some delay and its possible that the cars that were supposed to be delivered in the end of 2020 could potentially move to 2021. For the sake of my calculation, I just assumed that production line and delivery starts to roll out in Jan of 2021.

RJ has said that they plan to do 20K vehicles a year. That could be a bumpy ride and going by what Tesla has done and giving a huge benefit of doubt to the assembly line expertise, inputs from Ford I have come with the following numbers. Again, pure speculation, I am not too pessimistic neither too optimistic here.

In the first three quarters, I am assuming Rivian will do 500 cars a month and then for the next three quarters 750 a month and then 1000 and so on.

Another key assumption I am making is that I am not inserting a delay for the R1S. My reasoning there is that there are 720 orders of R1T that Rivian will have to work on in the first quarter of 2021 and the 360 R1Ss will come towards the end of that quarter. Since the assembly line is the same (my assumption), I figure that this will not create big delays.

So with that, this is how the burn-down would look. Look at the header row to see when an order has been placed and the columns A,B on the left to see which quarter, year the order is likely to be fulfilled. This doesn't take into account vehicle configuration, customers delaying orders, shipping, delivery attributes.

The color coding in the previous table will come handy now.


Rivian R1T R1S Delivery Timeline Estimate.png



As for me, based on the table above, I am getting my R1S in the end of 2021. I now got to figure what to do with my Tesla model S lease. Do I extend it or buy or lease another car until then.

This is my first forum post and I appreciate feedback. Just thought of putting my time to picture when I would get my Rivian. Have a great week ahead everyone.

Update on 7/7/2020:

If we extrapolate this to 30K orders instead of 10K. It will look something like this.

Total Orders: 31,429

Production starts in Q2 of 2021.

Spread out in the same pattern of the forum members' calculated order date. Please note that I am limiting the time to Q1 of 2020 when I last did the calculation (in the 2nd week of April 2020).

1593578157567-png.png




Coming back to my color coding and the table for the data that is in the graph. Keep an eye on the color coding in the last column on the right.

1593578314312-png.png



The is the burndown. 12,500 orders a year comes to 1042 orders a month. Assume that this is the throughput for 2021. In 2022 and 2023, lets assume that Rivian is going in full steam with a throughput of 20,000 orders a year (1,667 a month). Then the burndown would look like this.

1593578743177-png.png



In this scenario, my R1S will be ready in 2022 Q2 or Q3 since I placed my order in Sept 2019.


EDIT: Calculation for 30K orders due to a conversation in another thread. https://www.rivianforums.com/forum/threads/lack-of-communication.588/post-7494

EDIT 2 (7/26/2021): The updated chart that takes into account Rivian's announced delivery timings (R1T June 2021, R1S Aug 2021) is shown in the thread below. Please refer to the link below.

https://www.rivianforums.com/forum/...st-2021-pilot-production-starts.631/post-8277

1595752008982.png



Edit 3 (8/3/2020): Providing Incremental Charts for order details, Production burn-down based on the thread https://www.rivianforums.com/forum/...based-on-rivian-preorder.647/page-2#post-8771

1596442132791.png


Burndown chart with the assumption that Rivian has the ability to process 20K vehicles per year (1,667 per month)

1596442223954.png
good work my man
 

sheydon

Well-Known Member
First Name
Scott
Joined
Feb 17, 2021
Messages
48
Reaction score
80
Location
Seattle
First Name
Scott
Vehicles
Toyota Sequoia
Occupation
Consultant
If you were one of the first people who received the Tesla Model 3, you would know better. Up to this point, Rivian has been ‘copying’ everything Tesla did, I expect they will do the same to ramp their production. We will see for sure.
I certainly hope that's not true. From all the stories I've read, Tesla has adopted an approach to design and manufacturing that "figures things out" on the production / final assembly line - resulting in LOTS of quality issues - especially at startup with a new model or trim (as Elon himself admitted). I think at the time, this was referred to as "first build" (maybe still).

Rivian, on the other hand, is rooted in a Lean product design / manufacturing approach - as evidenced by the Chairman and RJ's learnings at MIT (where the author of the book "Lean Thinking" hales from). I would be surprised if they aren't purposely exposing problems on the final assembly line (shutting it down until they're fixed) and taking things slowly at start until it is operating at a steady pace with quality built in at every step. Additionally, "mixed model production" is a key principle in this different (than Tesla) world - where trim levels / colors are purposely mixed in a very specific way to level demand and work on the assembly line. If they don't start there - that's where they're headed.
 

Advertisement





 


Advertisement
Top