#### johnking

##### Active Member

- First Name
- John

- Joined
- Dec 23, 2019

- Messages
- 36

- Reaction score
- 39

- Location
- North Bend, WA

- First Name
- John

- Vehicles
- Tesla Model S, BMW X3, Reservation for R1S

Folks,

Kudos to @skyote for kicking off this thread and to everyone who contributed to the thread with their order #s.

@skyote and me had an offline discussion, worked on the data and here are some more insights.

Assumption: There will be a 15% attrition on the whole. So we have applied that for the # of orders every month.

The total # of orders after taking the attrition into account is 24,832.

Here is an overview of the orders, the months they were placed and 've overlaid the financial events of Rivian.

Next is the burn down. We have two models here.

Rivian is able to keep a production rate of 20K cars per year as stated by them. This translates to 1,667 cars per month.

If we go with this model, by Aug 2022, all the reservations made till 7/31 will be completed.

Rivian is able to ramp-up production rate by 1K every 6 months. So we start with 2K, then go to 3K after 6 months .

In this model, all the reservations made till date will be fulfilled by April 2022.

Limitation - Not considering the R1S delay by 3 months in this modelling.

Kudos to @skyote for kicking off this thread and to everyone who contributed to the thread with their order #s.

@skyote and me had an offline discussion, worked on the data and here are some more insights.

Assumption: There will be a 15% attrition on the whole. So we have applied that for the # of orders every month.

The total # of orders after taking the attrition into account is 24,832.

Here is an overview of the orders, the months they were placed and 've overlaid the financial events of Rivian.

Next is the burn down. We have two models here.

**Model 1:**Rivian is able to keep a production rate of 20K cars per year as stated by them. This translates to 1,667 cars per month.

If we go with this model, by Aug 2022, all the reservations made till 7/31 will be completed.

**Model 2:**Rivian is able to ramp-up production rate by 1K every 6 months. So we start with 2K, then go to 3K after 6 months .

In this model, all the reservations made till date will be fulfilled by April 2022.

Limitation - Not considering the R1S delay by 3 months in this modelling.

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