johnking

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Folks,

Kudos to @skyote for kicking off this thread and to everyone who contributed to the thread with their order #s.

@skyote and me had an offline discussion, worked on the data and here are some more insights.

Assumption: There will be a 15% attrition on the whole. So we have applied that for the # of orders every month.

The total # of orders after taking the attrition into account is 24,832.

Here is an overview of the orders, the months they were placed and 've overlaid the financial events of Rivian.

1596329705449.png


Next is the burn down. We have two models here.

Model 1:

Rivian is able to keep a production rate of 20K cars per year as stated by them. This translates to 1,667 cars per month.

If we go with this model, by Aug 2022, all the reservations made till 7/31 will be completed.

1596330297617.png



Model 2:

Rivian is able to ramp-up production rate by 1K every 6 months. So we start with 2K, then go to 3K after 6 months .

In this model, all the reservations made till date will be fulfilled by April 2022.

1596330432014.png


Limitation - Not considering the R1S delay by 3 months in this modelling.
 
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SEARivian

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Maybe I missed it somewhere but how does everyone know your order number? Or is it just a guess based on date ordered?
 

Coast2Coast

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John and skyote, thanks, and really nice work. It would be great if Rivian gave some feedback, but that's not likely to happen, at least not publicly. A very nice piece of sleuthing and analysis!
 

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Not sure I would want to wait another 18 months...
 

electruck

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Not sure I would want to wait another 18 months...
That's certainly understandable. Unfortunately no direct EV competitor will be available much (if any) sooner, especially if you don't already have a reservation in. Of course there's always an ICE truck off the local dealer lot if you need something sooner but I suspect you pre-ordered a Rivian for a reason.
 

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So my adjusted number is 2770 (1000 down from my original of 3770). Planning on getting a fully-loaded 180 KWH R1S. Does that put me into September at least? Lol
 
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So my adjusted number is 2770 (1000 down from my original of 3770). Planning on getting a fully-loaded 180 KWH R1S. Does that put me into September at least? Lol
I would think so.
 
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Two questions for discussion here.

1) What are your thoughts on 15% as the assumed attrition percentage?

2) What are your thoughts on likely production throughput?
 

Shzeph

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Two questions for discussion here.

1) What are your thoughts on 15% as the assumed attrition percentage?

2) What are your thoughts on likely production throughput?
I’m not sure about the second point, but to the first point I would say it seems like a solid number!

https://www.vox.com/2017/8/2/160874...-manufacture-preorder-cancellations-elon-musk

I did some math on the conversion rate for the Model 3, and based on the numbers presented in the article, the conversion rate was like 87.8%, so an attrition rate of a little over 12%

Granted, it’s a very different vehicle with a very different customer base, but an attrition rate of 15% for Rivian seems about right
 

DTM

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Regarding lead time from config to delivery: All I have to go by is the Cayenne we ordered. Our order was "locked" about 60 days prior to delivery. Remembering that most of Germany goes on vacation for a month during July or August & we picked up our car at the factory in late August. I would be surprised if the config selector is available before November. All just a WAG.
 

Coast2Coast

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On likely production throughput, at least a couple of considerations.

What's physically possible? In the Mitsubishi days, we know Normal was designed to produce 250K vehicles/year. Mitsubishis were quite a bit smaller than Rivians, so production capacity should be reduced for larger vehicles. However, Rivian is adding 400-500K additional square feet, so maybe we should go back to the 250K/year number. But the new square feet seems to be earmarked for battery & Amazon van production, so it may not add capacity for R1T/Ss.

So, production capacity is about 250K units/year, once the plant's minimum efficient scale is realized. How long will that take?

Here's where other considerations emerge. What's management's intent? Management's intent will likely be to clear out back orders within a year. So, 25K units in the first full year of production. By then, a lot of reviews, press releases and media presentations on Rivian will be out, and new orders will roll in.

The goal will be to balance output (supply) with orders (demand).

It's possible demand will outstrip supply, but there will be a lot of BEV truck competition from Ford, GM, Tesla, Lordstown and maybe one or two others. Even if Rivian builds a better truck, the existence of alternatives and brand loyalty means demand will not jump greatly. In the early days of Tesla Model S and X sales, 2012-2016, Tesla sold @110,000 units per year or roughly 25K vehicles per quarter.

Extrapolating from above, Rivian will be able to produce 25,000 R1T/Ss by Q2 2022. If demand grows steadily, Rivian may need to expand production to 100,000 units per year, and it could easily do that without straining capacity. Remember Normal was designed to handle 200-250K vehicles per year. And remember the added square footage for battery and Amazon van output.

Adding 25K units OR MORE to production annually seems like a nice target, but it's much more about demand than supply once Rivian has cleared out its backlog of orders.
 
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