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good work my man
Thanks @ajbrutman - I am glad that the calculations are relevant after a year of writing it. Great inputs by members in this forum helped shape it up well and the other threads like @skyote 's 'Find your Rivian Order Number & Post it Here!' thread which helped to get the timings and burndown as best as possible. I am hoping Rivian can surprise us by beating all these estimations and delivering sooner by having a qualitative + quantitative throughput in the assembly lines.





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kvenom

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New to the forum, but long time lurker. Preordered a R1S non-launch edition last year, but beginning to think delivery will be nowhere close to January. I think I've hit the delay trifecta. 1. Non-launch edition 2. R1S 3. In Alberta, Canada where there is no Rivian base within 1000km. Lease is up in March, how likely is it going to be 2023 instead of 2022?
 

timf

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New to the forum, but long time lurker. Preordered a R1S non-launch edition last year, but beginning to think delivery will be nowhere close to January. I think I've hit the delay trifecta. 1. Non-launch edition 2. R1S 3. In Alberta, Canada where there is no Rivian base within 1000km. Lease is up in March, how likely is it going to be 2023 instead of 2022?
While I certainly would not expect delivery by March or even in the first half of 2022, Rivian will likely set the goal of delivering all pre-2021 reservations by the end of 2022. Telling yourself it will be 2023 isn't a bad idea though to temper expectations. You're going to need to find another vehicle to bridge the gap either way, so best to plan for that now.
 

DuckTruck

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New to the forum, but long time lurker. Preordered a R1S non-launch edition last year, but beginning to think delivery will be nowhere close to January. I think I've hit the delay trifecta. 1. Non-launch edition 2. R1S 3. In Alberta, Canada where there is no Rivian base within 1000km. Lease is up in March, how likely is it going to be 2023 instead of 2022?
kvenom,

Good to have you jump into the Forums with the rest of us! Are you waiting for the Max Pack? I seem to recall that the charging infrastructure will be a little thin in Alberta, at least for now.
 

kvenom

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kvenom,

Good to have you jump into the Forums with the rest of us! Are you waiting for the Max Pack? I seem to recall that the charging infrastructure will be a little thin in Alberta, at least for now.
I just ordered the adventure pack, don't; know about the max pack. Already have a level 2 charger at home, and the mountains are only an hour away with infrastructure in place so it should be fine. Might look at the Ioniq 5 or BMW iX on lease, but will keep my reservation at least till next year to see if things have moved along.
 

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Most of your logic makes sense to me, however, I'm afraid that deliveries are going to slip further than you have assumed. Granted I have only been following Rivian for a few weeks, it sure seems like they are going to slip well into Q2 or maybe even Q3 of 2021 for initial deliveries. My assumption would be that they slip +1 or even 2 months beyond the closure time for the assembly facility. In other words if the assembly facility is closed for 3 months the I think deliveries will slip 4 or 5 months. They tweeted they were closing the plant on March 20th so exactly 1 month ago today. So if they opened backup today I would think deliveries would slip 2-3 months which to me means end of Q1 2021. Yet I don't believe they are close to opening the facility again... It could really be another month or more... but I certainly hope not. I have not placed a pre-order yet but I think I intend to very soon and I really wanted the R1S sometime in 2021 it was doubtful before Covid hit. Now it's dang near impossible that I'll see one in 2021. However, I enjoyed reading your statistical exercise, thanks for sharing.
bajadahl,

Your thoughts of over a year ago are sounding very prescient. Having only joined the Forums at the end of 2020 myself, I don't recall seeing this thread before. With all the unexpected twists and turns of the last 18 months, your predictions seem pretty solid.

Color me impressed! 👍🏻👍🏽
 

DuckTruck

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I just ordered the adventure pack, don't; know about the max pack. Already have a level 2 charger at home, and the mountains are only an hour away with infrastructure in place so it should be fine. Might look at the Ioniq 5 or BMW iX on lease, but will keep my reservation at least till next year to see if things have moved along.
Can't go wrong with any of those vehicles, but up there, the R1S would be King in the snow. When I asked about the Max Pack, I was only curious if you're holding out for the battery previously known as the 410-mile range unit, or the 300-mile battery. As expensive as these things already will be, I certainly applaud the extra ~10% to get the cool upgrades of the Adventure Package over the Explorer.
 

SANZC02

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New to the forum, but long time lurker. Preordered a R1S non-launch edition last year, but beginning to think delivery will be nowhere close to January. I think I've hit the delay trifecta. 1. Non-launch edition 2. R1S 3. In Alberta, Canada where there is no Rivian base within 1000km. Lease is up in March, how likely is it going to be 2023 instead of 2022?
I do recall seeing an interview with RJ Scaringe (Bloomberg - see link) where he did say that they will be supply constrained for longer than they would like. He mentioned that the production ramp up would be slower than they initially planned for and that they have reservations that could go through 2023 for delivery.
 

Gshenderson

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New to the forum, but long time lurker. Preordered a R1S non-launch edition last year, but beginning to think delivery will be nowhere close to January. I think I've hit the delay trifecta. 1. Non-launch edition 2. R1S 3. In Alberta, Canada where there is no Rivian base within 1000km. Lease is up in March, how likely is it going to be 2023 instead of 2022?
Add MaxPack and you’ll hit the superfecta! Welcome to the forum!
 
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EVTrucking

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Just joined this forum. Reserved R1T 400+ March 15, 2021.

Too many variables and unknowns to make a meaningful prediction of delivery date but I think given all of the circumstantial information and my own assumptions, I am not expecting my R1T until late spring early summer of 2023.

My assumptions:
- 30-40K pre orders(I suspect it is more than 40K), and I am pretty much at the end of the line.
- Very slow ramp to HVM. Tesla really struggled with this. July 2021 is currently the start of production. If Rivian's goal is 20K trucks per year then the math speaks for itself.
- Simultaneous early production and delivery of Amazon vans. Which will require a lot of engineering resources to track, and fix issues.
- Parts issues
- Parts delivery issues
- Lack of sufficient trained productive work force
- Lack of direct HVM experience
- State of the manufacturing facility and qualified installed machinery.

I do think Rivian will ultimately succeed and I continue to be a Rivian fan but like so many other folks I need a truck in the short term and it in my opinion it would be foolish to purchase an ICE truck.

It's wait and see for now and I think the other EV truck producers will probably suffer significant delays too.
 

tisodom

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New to the forum, but long time lurker. Preordered a R1S non-launch edition last year, but beginning to think delivery will be nowhere close to January. I think I've hit the delay trifecta. 1. Non-launch edition 2. R1S 3. In Alberta, Canada where there is no Rivian base within 1000km. Lease is up in March, how likely is it going to be 2023 instead of 2022?
The lack of a Rivian service centre does not bother me. For many years Tesla did not have a presence in Alberta - they had set up techinicians coming to you. Rivian also seems to have proper mechanisms in place for remote diagnostics.

As for January 2022 - Yeah, let's not delude ourselves. I'm planning on mid-2022 deliveries to Canada.
 

R1THHI

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How many pre-orders or reservation folks may drop out? That helps move others to the front.

Plus, Rivian having Ford on their side, I would hope creates a best case scenario for Ford to have inside advisors to champion Rivian and get them to recover their delay in schedule and pull left the schedule, so vehicles start delivering early.
 

EVTrucking

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How many pre-orders or reservation folks may drop out? That helps move others to the front.

Plus, Rivian having Ford on their side, I would hope creates a best case scenario for Ford to have inside advisors to champion Rivian and get them to recover their delay in schedule and pull left the schedule, so vehicles start delivering early.
I have not heard that Ford is on Rivian's side; where did you read that?

IMO Rivian will not recover their schedule or deliver vehicles early. Rivian has chosen to keep their customers in the dark regarding pre-order numbers and production ramp expectations. Unless Rivian can greatly improve on Tesla's early production challenges I suspect deliveries will be significantly delayed.

Lets hope that I am wrong.
 

SANZC02

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How many pre-orders or reservation folks may drop out? That helps move others to the front.

Plus, Rivian having Ford on their side, I would hope creates a best case scenario for Ford to have inside advisors to champion Rivian and get them to recover their delay in schedule and pull left the schedule, so vehicles start delivering early.
This is an industry thing not a Rivian thing. Even Ford has reported they will miss projections by 1.1 million units this year at a revenue hit of 2.5 B.

They have also delayed the new Bronco.

I just think being a startup in the best of times is difficult. Throw in the state of manufacturing shortages and delivery delays on top of that makes it even harder.

I was down by Huntington Beach earlier today, I have never seen so many cargo ships full of containers anchored off the coast waiting to get into the Port of Los Angelos as I’ve seen this year. My best guess is we are months away from the point we will be considered caught up and back to normal.
 

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