johnking

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Fellow Rivian Folks,

Like most of you, I am waiting to get my Rivian. I came up with a rough analysis on the reservation numbers based on a few threads in this forum and triangulating the data with some publicly available information. I am pretty amateurish in my calculation and feel free to provide feedback. I did all the data collection over the spring break as I have been trying to grasp when will my R1S come :) . Total effort about 6 hours for data scrubbing.

Input Threads:

  1. https://www.rivianforums.com/forum/threads/rivian-waiting-room-have-you-pre-ordered-with-deposit.43/
  2. https://www.rivianforums.com/forum/threads/when-did-you-pre-order-your-rivian.422/
  3. https://www.rivianforums.com/forum/threads/rivian-annual-production-target.90/post-590

Assumptions to calculate order placement date if not called out in Thread # 422.

  • Looked at the date of joining the Rivian forum and subtracted a month from it to be the tentative date of order placement.
  • If the subtraction went prior to Nov 27th , 2018, I placed made the date as 11/30.
  • I researched on most of the members in thread 43 and in case a member has mentioned the month of order placement in some other thread, then I took the end of the month as the date. Example: If xyz said 'In faith I placed my order last July' , then I took it to be July 31st 2019.
  • Some of the members who have answered these threads do not have the location mentioned so I have marked the location of those as 'Navbl - not available',
  • For others, tried my best to narrow down to the State, Country.
  • In thread 43, if someone has stated they have not yet decided but later on in one of the forum posts they have leaned towards R1S or R1T, I have moved them to one of the vehicles and removed them from the undecided status.
So first a look at the reservation data.


Total Pre-orders found in the forum: 231

Vehicle ModelCount of Vehicle
R1S
99​
R1S/R1T
12​
R1T
120​

rivian reservations by model breakdown.png


Reservation by Country of Forum Members:

1587351826659.png




Reservation by State of Forum Members:

Rivian reservations orders by state.png


Also, giving the data for the graph below.

CountryStateR1SR1S/R1T (Undecided)R1T
CanadaAB
1​
1​
1​
CanadaQC
1​
1​
USAIA
1​
1​
USAMA
1​
1​
USAMD
1​
1​
1​
USAPA
1​
1​
USAMN
1​
2​
USAOH
1​
2​
USAVA
1​
2​
USACO
1​
3​
USAMI
1​
4​
USANC
1​
4​
CanadaNS
1​
USADC
1​
USANE
1​
USACT
2​
1​
USAGA
2​
1​
USAAZ
2​
1​
3​
USANJ
2​
3​
USAOR
2​
3​
USASC
2​
3​
USANV
2​
USAWI
2​
CanadaBC
3​
2​
USAUT
3​
USANY
5​
1​
3​
USANavbl
5​
6​
USAIL
7​
5​
USAWA
10​
8​
USATX
10​
1​
14​
USAFL
11​
9​
USACA
14​
6​
21​
AustraliaAU-VIC
1​
USADE
1​
USAHI
1​
USAKS
1​
USALA
1​
USAMS
1​
USAMT
1​
USANH
1​
USATN
1​
CanadaON
2​
USAID
2​
USAME
2​
USAPR
1​



Now comes the Most interesting Part:

When were the orders placed
by the members in the forum who have responded to both these threads.

Rivian reservations time placed.png


YearR1SR1S/R1TR1TGrand Total
2018
9​
18​
27​
Qtr4
9​
18​
27​
2019
79​
10​
90​
179​
Qtr1
26​
5​
43​
74​
Qtr2
26​
1​
17​
44​
Qtr3
18​
1​
19​
38​
Qtr4
9​
3​
11​
23​
2020
11​
2​
12​
25​
Qtr1
10​
2​
12​
24​
Qtr2
1​
1​
Grand Total
99​
12​
120​
231


Now, in a public article, by Frost and Sullivan, Rivian has about 10K orders as of Feb 2020. That means that the count of pre-orders in the forum amount to 2.31 % of the total orders. This also matches what RJ has been telling in other forums 'We have 10s of thousands of orders'........just rounding it to 10K here for the sake of calculation.

So, I have overlaid the other 97.3% of orders on top of the 231 orders but in the same frequency of the order date. Please note, that there is a huge margin of assumption over here and I did not figure out any other way to overlay that data.

So, this is what it would look like.

Rivian estimated delivery timeline.png



Next I proceeded to find out what would be the wait time for someone who has placed an order till date. Copying the table over messes up the formatting so I am pasting the picture below. The only difference to the table above is I have calculated the total per quarter and they are color coded on the right. The color coding will came handy in the next few seconds so plz bear with me.

1587352983844.png



Now, I made some assumptions to calculate what would be the throughput of the assembly line. Due to the pandemic, it is fair to assume some delay and its possible that the cars that were supposed to be delivered in the end of 2020 could potentially move to 2021. For the sake of my calculation, I just assumed that production line and delivery starts to roll out in Jan of 2021.

RJ has said that they plan to do 20K vehicles a year. That could be a bumpy ride and going by what Tesla has done and giving a huge benefit of doubt to the assembly line expertise, inputs from Ford I have come with the following numbers. Again, pure speculation, I am not too pessimistic neither too optimistic here.

In the first three quarters, I am assuming Rivian will do 500 cars a month and then for the next three quarters 750 a month and then 1000 and so on.

Another key assumption I am making is that I am not inserting a delay for the R1S. My reasoning there is that there are 720 orders of R1T that Rivian will have to work on in the first quarter of 2021 and the 360 R1Ss will come towards the end of that quarter. Since the assembly line is the same (my assumption), I figure that this will not create big delays.

So with that, this is how the burn-down would look. Look at the header row to see when an order has been placed and the columns A,B on the left to see which quarter, year the order is likely to be fulfilled. This doesn't take into account vehicle configuration, customers delaying orders, shipping, delivery attributes.

The color coding in the previous table will come handy now.


Rivian R1T R1S Delivery Timeline Estimate.png



As for me, based on the table above, I am getting my R1S in the end of 2021. I now got to figure what to do with my Tesla model S lease. Do I extend it or buy or lease another car until then.

This is my first forum post and I appreciate feedback. Just thought of putting my time to picture when I would get my Rivian. Have a great week ahead everyone.
 

bajadahl

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Most of your logic makes sense to me, however, I'm afraid that deliveries are going to slip further than you have assumed. Granted I have only been following Rivian for a few weeks, it sure seems like they are going to slip well into Q2 or maybe even Q3 of 2021 for initial deliveries. My assumption would be that they slip +1 or even 2 months beyond the closure time for the assembly facility. In other words if the assembly facility is closed for 3 months the I think deliveries will slip 4 or 5 months. They tweeted they were closing the plant on March 20th so exactly 1 month ago today. So if they opened backup today I would think deliveries would slip 2-3 months which to me means end of Q1 2021. Yet I don't believe they are close to opening the facility again... It could really be another month or more... but I certainly hope not. I have not placed a pre-order yet but I think I intend to very soon and I really wanted the R1S sometime in 2021 it was doubtful before Covid hit. Now it's dang near impossible that I'll see one in 2021. However, I enjoyed reading your statistical exercise, thanks for sharing.
 

Tyker

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I appreciate the time you put into posting this. I suppose one of the real determining factors will be what battery and options you select, as your calculations assume an equivalent priority among reservation holders. My reservation was Nov 2019 and if I have to wait until 2022 then I will just get something else. My only saving grace is I plan on getting 180kw R1T so hopefully that bumps my place in line up, hell i'll order a gear tunnel kitchen if it bumps my place in line. I've been holding on to my Mazda until the right EV comes along and I just don't have the patience to wait 2 more years anymore.
 

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Normal could reopen before end of summer. Only 3 deaths so far. They're in one of the least hard hit counties in Illinois and Pritzker is being as aggressive about expanding testing as he can be without much help from the federal government.

Rivian tends to underpromise/underhype. A lot of what they said about their factory ramp-up plans were a conservative estimate when they were targeting 1 billion in investment and expecting to spend 200 million on the factory. They got 3 billion and have spent close to 4 times as much on the factory. And they got Ford manufacturing expertise through their partnership. Also, Amazon wants their vans ASAP. I'll bet getting Rivian to ramp up production faster was what that second round was all about.

Word at events was that crash-testing would be happening in Q2. I'm hopeful that means they expected to have a production line running by that time. I assume you'd want safety tests on the cars as you plan to build them for market. They might have been looking at Q3 for launch. Even if Normal is closed for another 2-3 months, I don't think early 2021 is too much to hope for. Unless of course these protester idiots keep it up and spur on a massive second wave that spills into bordering states.
 

skyote

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Great analysis @johnking !

Speculation of course, but there are two variables that I see differently:

1) I think there are more preorders than cited by Frost & Sullivan, which seems to conflict with other statements by RJ. I would be shocked if it was fewer than 25K.
2) I think even early production capacity will reach 1K+ per month, due to the investment & scale of equipment capacity in the factory...even if they start "slow". They are building out for production of thousands per week, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them able to hit 40K in year 1 (top end of a previous Rivian estimate).

I love the thought you put into this, and hopefully we all get our Rivians earlier than expected!
 

Coast2Coast

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We don't have enough information to make even an educated guess on when production will begin and at what levels.

Trucks like the R1T and R1S have 30,000 parts and components, most of which come from suppliers. Rivian assembles parts, components, sub-assemblies, assemblies and systems into vehicles. It takes a year to re-tool an existing factory. Before you can re-tool, you have to clean, paint, remodel and make new additions, like the 400,000 square foot addition to the 2.6 million square foot Normal plant. The work on the new addition has been stopped as well as the remodeling and transfer line assembly work inside the Normal plant.

Then, there are test production runs, fine tuning, and I'm probably leaving out a bunch of stuff.

We know next to nothing about who Rivians suppliers are, and what are their states of readiness for supplying Rivian. Because Rivian is just getting into manufacturing and assembling its first vehicles, Rivian probably doesn't have second sources of supply. If one supplier isn't ready to supply, Rivian can't go to an alternative source of supply; if there are no secondary sources of supply, the production line never gets going or it is halted until supplies are available. How many suppliers does Rivian have? 100-200 is my guess.

Then, there's inside the factory stuff. Have enough workers been hired and trained? Are the main and secondary assembly lines set up and ready to go? That includes test runs, full quality vetting, and lots of communications between Rivian and its suppliers as well as within Rivian between different production, assembly, painting and testing activities and within teams carrying out different tasks. Again, I'm leaving out a bunch of stuff.

Long story short, a delay of at least a quarter and maybe two. Earliest reservation holders will get their vehicles in March 2021 instead of December 2020, if everything goes extremely well. If not, early reservation holders are likely looking at May-June deliveries, a year from now.
 
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Coast2Coast

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John, kudos on your statistical analysis. Impressive. It's interesting how close your aggregate numbers are to what R.J. predicts as an initial sales ratio - a 55% R1T to 45% R1S split. I tally 57% pre-ordering R1Ts, using your numbers (132/231).

In your analysis, the top 5 in reported pre-orders, California, Texas, Florida, Washington and Navbl (?) account for 45% (45.45%) of orders. What's Navbl? Not available? So, after eliminating Navbl, the top 4 known states account for 48% (47.9%) of orders. Wow, half of pre-orders from only four states! What's up with that?

Maybe a number of things. There's a snowball effect. If there are a lot of orders from your state, where you live, you're more inclined to report. As state populations drop, the number of potential persons holding pre-orders drop, as does the likelihood of a snowball effect.

However, there are states with large populations and surprisingly low pre-orders. New York, the state with the fourth largest population, seems about right with 9 pre-orders. But the next six states in population, Pennsylvania (2), Illinois (12), Ohio (3), Georgia (3), North Carolina (5), and Michigan (5), are surprisingly low in pre-orders (pre-order #s in parentheses) with the exception of Illinois, which is not surprising given the location of Rivian's production plant in Normal, Illinois. Such oddities may be partially explained by a snowball effect.

Another interesting number is where higher proportions of one vehicle or another, R1T versus R1S, are self-reported than what might be expected; a 55-57% weighting in favor of the R1T. Washington and New York are anomalous in this way. Perhaps the weightings in Wa and NY are explained by weather conditions. Fully enclosed, weather sealed SUVs are preferred in states with lots of rain and snow. Other thoughts?

Sample numbers in your analysis are low and self-reported, so we should be cautious. I anticipate a minimum one quarter delay and a two quarter delay is more likely. So this time next year.
 
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HokieR1T

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New Poster, just cast my vote for an R1T Pre-Order. Placed my deposit a few weeks and kicking myself for not pulling the trigger earlier. I've been following the Rivian progress since before deposits were open, but hesitant to place a deposit on a car I had never seen in person. When the traditional car manufacturers issued their incentives last month I test drove a few options. It didn't take long to realize that the Rivian was the one car I wanted.
 

jjwolf120

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The whole corona virus thing has thrown a real monkey wrench into predicting when production will start. I was hoping that they were actually hoping to start production much earlier than December, but December was when they were certain they could start. So, they might not be delayed as much as we fear because their estimates were very conservative (based on their under promise and over deliver mantra). On the plus side for those who had later reservations, but a negative overall, more people might drop out or opt for a lower end model due to changes in economic conditions. The real question is what part of the production equation was the limiting factor. Software, Parts, Machining Tools, Testing, etc. Some of these can make significant progress under current conditions and some cannot. I expect once they can get back to work, we will get a better estimate, but until then we will just have to impatiently wait. The lack of information/progress is killing me.
 

Coast2Coast

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The key information we're missing is Rivian's degree of vertical integration versus reliance on suppliers. The range in the auto industry is huge.

Tesla is or has been about 75% vertically integrated which means it makes most of the parts, components, sub-assemblies, assemblies and systems that go into its vehicles, based on what is known about its operations at Fremont, Ca. The numbers are likely to be different in its Shanghai operation, however. Toyota, by contrast, relies upon suppliers for 75% of the manufacturing value of its vehicles. It's only 25% vertically integrated. In short, auto makers can be completely different in the degrees to which they rely on vertical integration vs supplier dependency.

Where is Rivian likely to be? A good question.

If Tesla and Toyota are at extreme ends of a continuum, let's put Rivian somewhere in the middle. R.J. has said the skateboard and everything it entails, which is a lot, is proprietary. That's vertical integration. But the more you do internally, the more time it takes to build up and refine capabilities. Rivian was pushing hard to get into production fast, so let's assume a good deal of the "top hat" comes from suppliers.

There's likely to be a hundred suppliers and probably more. Whatever delays are generated internally, within Rivian, by the pandemic, they have to be multiplied by whatever delays are occurring among suppliers. Internal delays + external delays add up to a production delay of at least a quarter. And that's for the start of production. The bulk of the 20,000 vehicles Rivian expects to produce in its first, full year of production will fall in the second half of the first, full year.
 
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johnking

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However, there are states with large populations and surprisingly low pre-orders. New York, the state with the fourth largest population, seems about right with 9 pre-orders. But the next six states in population, Pennsylvania (2), Illinois (12), Ohio (3), Georgia (3), North Carolina (5), and Michigan (5), are surprisingly low in pre-orders (pre-order #s in parentheses) with the exception of Illinois, which is not surprising given the location of Rivian's production plant in Normal, Illinois. Such oddities may be partially explained by a snowball effect.

Another interesting number is where higher proportions of one vehicle or another, R1T versus R1S, are self-reported than what might be expected; a 55-57% weighting in favor of the R1T. Washington and New York are anomalous in this way. Perhaps the weightings in Wa and NY are explained by weather conditions. Fully enclosed, weather sealed SUVs are preferred in states with lots of rain and snow. Other thoughts?

Thanks Mark (@Coast2Coast) I like how you have pivoted that to the population and sliced the total % on a per state basis. The top 5 states account for 50% of the orders based on the sample data-set we have in this forum

In this table below, I have overlaid the population % of the state along with the 2018 EV sales % data. There is some correlation and might be a good indication of where would be able to spot the vehicles when they are released.

Source for 2018 EV Sales - EVAdoption.com , Population data from Wikipedia.

1587443692524.png
 

Coast2Coast

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Hi [email protected] It's interesting the top two states, California and Texas, in terms of pre-orders and population size show RJ's expected preference for R1Ts over R1Ss, but the next four states in terms of pre-orders and population size, FL, WA, IL & NY, reverse the preference, with R1Ss running ahead of R1Ts. Beyond the top 5-6 states, the numbers are too small to make even guesses about preferences, but if you take California and Texas out of the picture, there doesn't seem to be a decided preference for R1Ts. In fact, maybe the reverse.

At the Mill Valley/SF event, one of the Rivian folks said R1Ts were further along in development than R1Ss. R1Ts were in their second/third generations of development whereas R1Ss were in their first/second generations. Most the test vehicles appear to be R1Ts as well. I wonder if RJ and Rivian have the vehicle preference mix wrong for the country as a whole, even if in CA and TX an expected preference for R1Ts holds. Of course, if R1Ts and R1Ss share the same transfer lines in the Normal plant, producing the right numbers of each vehicle shouldn't be a problem, as long as suppliers are able to provide parts and components equally well for both vehicles.

And during the pandemic downtime, maybe the development cycles for the R1Ts and R1Ss will equalize. Given that the skateboard is the same for both vehicles, the differences in development are likely to be fit and finish issues. For example, there's more interior content in R1Ss with third row seating and an inside rear storage area. Those kinds of issues might be largely solved remotely and then shared, as needed, with suppliers.

I find myself worrying about the R1T vs R1S choice. The R1T is more versatile with a gear tunnel and the ability to use the pickup bed and platform it provides in multiple ways. I'm a sucker for versatility and practicality. I have a small orchard a couple miles outside of town, and versatility is important. But I like the smaller size of the R1S, making it more maneuverable in town, and its all weather, seats down versatility isn't bad. You don't have a gear tunnel with the R1S but the 16" shorter wheelbase gives it greater maneuverability.

But as A.J. pointed out in a post in another thread, R1Ts are scheduled to be produced first. That's a reason to order a R1T; you get it sooner. However, with a pandemic postponement, I wonder if that will hold true. When Rivian gets back into production, will the product mix between R1Ts and R1Ss be equal? Looking at John's numbers, there's not much difference in demand/pre-orders for one over the other.
 
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johnking

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Really good points Mark (@Coast2Coast). The R1T is the poster vehicle for Rivian and the one that has raked up so many reservations after the initial announcement. I think the R1S' demand is slowly gathering pace based on all the testing, development data of the R1T which is building trust in the minds of the potential customers. The interior as you said is going to be the most work for R1S. That could be one of the reasons it will be an additional few months before the pre-production R1Ss start rolling out. If the design, product teams at Rivian have already locked on V1 of the vehicles for the line, then we might be in a better position as contracts to suppliers would've already gone out for fulfillment. If that is yet to be done, then we could see potential delays which will be based on as you said how vertically integrated Rivian's vehicles are.
 

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I've gone back and forth a little bit. Mostly for the 17" shorter (matters in the city) and "can sleep in it without a tent" factors. Gear tunnel is just too cool though.
 

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Pherdnut says 17" and earlier I said 16". For the record, I believe the R1S is 16.4" shorter than the R1T.
 
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