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Time to delivery.... if I order now.

Zoidz

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What you're way too optimistic on is reservations to converted orders. Even the almighty reservation king the Ford Bronco is seeing a 70% conversion rate. You think Rivian will best that? No chance at all. Let's go with your high range est of 55k reservations and a super high conversion rate of 70%.. thats 38k orders to fulfill in 16 months.
Perhaps not. IMO you can't make a direct comparison on coversion rates of Bronco ($100 deposit) vs. Rivian ($1000) deposit. I know people who said $100 deposit was of no concern and they wanted to hold a place in line, but when asked if they would put $1000 on a Bronco, the answer was no way. So - I think people who put $$ down on a Rivian are more serious about following through, compared to many Bronco deposits on a whim. We shall see....
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SeaGeo

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Perhaps not. IMO you can't make a direct comparison on coversion rates of Bronco ($100 deposit) vs. Rivian ($1000) deposit. I know people who said $100 deposit was of no concern and they wanted to hold a place in line, but when asked if they would put $1000 on a Bronco, the answer was no way. So - I think people who put $$ down on a Rivian are more serious about following through, compared to many Bronco deposits on a whim. We shall see....
Can confirm. It took thought for me to put a deposit on a rivian. Particularly because they are new. "Refundable" only works if the company hasn't gone belly up. I tossed Ford a $100 as an insurance policy that I fully do not intend to convert.
 

neveo

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i placed my order for a R1s in January of 2020 while on a chat today the attendant said i would likley be late 2022 or early 2023.
 

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Bobthebuilder352

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i placed my order for a R1s in January of 2020 while on a chat today the attendant said i would likley be late 2022 or early 2023.
Well that’s annoying. I actually did a chat for the first time two weeks ago and they wouldn’t say. On one hand I don’t want it rushed but I also don’t think I can wait till 2023 so I guess i’ll need to set money on fire buying a Taycan in the meantime.
 

SeaGeo

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Well that’s annoying. I actually did a chat for the first time two weeks ago and they wouldn’t say. On one hand I don’t want it rushed but I also don’t think I can wait till 2023 so I guess i’ll need to set money on fire buying a Taycan in the meantime.
I wouldn't put any stock in it. S1 says the think they can deliver everything by the end of 2022. You'd expect that to be somewhat conservative to avoid not meeting expectations next year. Plus we have no idea about how they're going to prioritize other than *potentially* initially areas with service centers. CS has probably been directed to say the S1 or later. Hopefully we have a better idea by end of year about how quickly they ramp up.
 

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I’ve asked CS multiple times and they refuse to comment even on the year. I even tried the whole “I promise not to hold you to this, and I understand things change, but do you at least think you’re on track to get me my R1T sometime before the end of 2023?” And they wouldn’t even go for that.

So what gives?

I don’t like the inconsistencies. Some people are getting lots of special treatment. Some people are being given estimates (inconsistent, between them, however). And then I feel like I’m in a group where Rivian just won’t talk to about anything. People post chat logs where the reps seem nice and engaging but when I chat it’s always like “what do you want now?” And “we can’t tell you anything”
 
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Max

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I don’t like the inconsistencies. Some people are getting lots of special treatment. Some people are being given estimates (inconsistent, between them, however). And then I feel like I’m in a group where Rivian just won’t talk to about anything. People post chat logs where the reps seem nice and engaging but when I chat it’s always like “what do you want now?” And “we can’t tell you anything”
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Perhaps not. IMO you can't make a direct comparison on coversion rates of Bronco ($100 deposit) vs. Rivian ($1000) deposit. I know people who said $100 deposit was of no concern and they wanted to hold a place in line, but when asked if they would put $1000 on a Bronco, the answer was no way. So - I think people who put $$ down on a Rivian are more serious about following through, compared to many Bronco deposits on a whim. We shall see....
I admit I put a deposit for Lightening immediately despite the fact that I was not interested in it as much as Rivian and CT. And I liked Rivian from the first day but I waited 3 years to put a deposit. But once I made the reservation, deposit amount is completely irrelevant in which of the three I will pick. Only Value and Timing are now a factor for me.
 

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Scoiatael

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i placed my order for a R1s in January of 2020 while on a chat today the attendant said i would likley be late 2022 or early 2023.
It's impossible for them to say right now. Someone who ordered this year and lives near a service center well get their truck before someone who ordered last year and has no service center in their state yet.
 

Bobthebuilder352

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service center distance relating to delivery time is an interesting quirk. I get it but I’m ~4hours from the closest one and they didn’t exactly announce they were doing this in advance. Again, I get it because if they turn out becoming unreliable it would become an annoying schlep back and forth for them or me.
 

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i placed my order for a R1s in January of 2020 while on a chat today the attendant said i would likley be late 2022 or early 2023.
If you have ordered an R1T back in Jan of 2020 and delivery doesn't arrive until the end of 2022 or 2023 then there is no way this company will receive a valuation of $80bil. Not if they only deliver 20,000 vehicles in a 12 month span
 

Dbeglor

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If you have ordered an R1T back in Jan of 2020 and delivery doesn't arrive until the end of 2022 or 2023 then there is no way this company will receive a valuation of $80bil. Not if they only deliver 20,000 vehicles in a 12 month span
Those are two unrelated things. They will receive whatever valuation they receive in about 6 weeks (presumed timeline for IPO), before anything is known for sure on deliveries (not to mention that unofficial timeline from a single CS agent isn't worth the screen it's printed on). Additionally, the amount of deliveries in the first year has very little bearing on the overall value of the company. Delivering only 10k, or 30k or even 40k in the first year doesn't really sway what an investor thinks income, expense and value will be down the road. That is, unless their ramp up affects future preorder velocity, which it could potentially but unknown.

The ultimate IPO valuation of the company will be determined far more by how much investors believe in the long-term vision and products of the company rather than these initial flagship vehicles. Case in point, Tesla's valuation has little to do with the Model S/X, they were just a stepping stone to what the company was really about.
 

Scoiatael

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If you have ordered an R1T back in Jan of 2020 and delivery doesn't arrive until the end of 2022 or 2023 then there is no way this company will receive a valuation of $80bil. Not if they only deliver 20,000 vehicles in a 12 month span
The valuation sets the price of the stock and number of shares available for the IPO launch. If they only deliver 20k vehicles, then the price of the stock will crash hard.
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