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Time to delivery.... if I order now.

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Told y'all.....


Order today; expect 2024. Like setting yourself up for sadness? Tell yourself 2023


i placed my order for a R1s in January of 2020 while on a chat today the attendant said i would likley be late 2022 or early 2023.
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dfx

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The valuation sets the price of the stock and number of shares available for the IPO launch. If they only deliver 20k vehicles, then the price of the stock will crash hard.
Agree completely. This isn't an SPAC listing, it's a legitimate IPO and if any of the information included on the S-1 is shown to be grossly exaggerated or false then there will be court proceedings. It would be a disaster for the company and the underwriters. It is stated in the S-1 that they estimate the annual production capacity of the Normal plant at 150,000 vehicles and they expect that to be increased up to 200,000 vehicles by 2023. A company simply cannot disclose that type of information and then end up delivering 15,000 vehicles in a year's time without suffering some major consequences. It would be the biggest IPO failure of all time.
Everyone who has ordered a LE vehicle will have their vehicle before Jun 1 2022.
 

dfx

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R1T 3/21/2021 CS said the same thing to me.
Did you order a Max Pack? A March 2021 order of a Max Pack may well take until late in 2022. No way for a LE R1S ordered in Jan 2020. That order number would be somewhere between 18000 and 25000 in the queue
 

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Yes. Looking at a video with 35k views now...

Compare this with the Apple event yesterday, or the Pixel event today. Both were just incremental improvements of existing products that have existed for a decade. Each of those videos, hours in length, have millions of views.

Not only that, but every blogger is talking about it, with their own videos pulling millions of views.

Rivian gets a few views, but the are not drawing as many as I would have hoped. Neither is Lucid.

I'm not sure if consumers are overwhelmed with too many EV brands & models to care. Maybe Tesla has sucked all the air out of the room. With the f150, Q4, and Hummer EV - some of the big autos do pretty well with their view count, and message amplification. But they draw in their huge international audiences and brand influence. With everything right now; seems consumers will believe it, when they see it (in real life)



Didn't you also say that Rivian videos don't get many viewers? ?
 

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Yes. Looking at a video with 35k views now...

Compare this with the Apple event yesterday, or the Pixel event today. Both were just incremental improvements of existing products that have existed for a decade. Each of those videos, hours in length, have millions of views.

Not only that, but every blogger is talking about it, with their own videos pulling millions of views.

Rivian gets a few views, but the are not drawing as many as I would have hoped. Neither is Lucid.

I'm not sure if consumers are overwhelmed with too many EV brands & models to care. Maybe Tesla has sucked all the air out of the room. With the f150, Q4, and Hummer EV - some of the big autos do pretty well with their view count, and message amplification. But they draw in their huge international audiences and brand influence. With everything right now; seems consumers will believe it, when they see it (in real life)
Rivian and Lucid haven't advertised at all. Once they have vehicles on the road more people will start taking notice. The average person has no idea they exist.
 

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Rivian and Lucid haven't advertised at all. Once they have vehicles on the road more people will start taking notice. The average person has no idea they exist.
Bezos should let them advertise the R1T and R1S on the side of his new delivery vans.
 

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I think we're now at a point that if you want one or are still on the fence, I would recommend pre-ordering now, BEFORE they become a household name and everybody starts seeing them on the road. Because before that happens, 6 months might be a reasonable estimate.

They have 40k preorders to fill per the IPO docs. They're anticipating having production up to 7k a month almost immediately. They're talking 150k+ in 2023 so obviously that's going to about double between now and then but Rivian is still a relatively unknown brand to most. That will change fast. People griping about their love or hate of the headlights alone will be huge for publicity.

If it turns out the QC is a disaster or RJ eats puppies or something, you'll have months to find out before your order comes up and we haven't seen any grumpy stories about trouble getting the preorder fee back on cancellation. I've only seen one post somewhere about cancelling and they claimed they got their money back within days.

Another thing to consider that might give you an edge on timing: lots of year+ preorder holders decided they'd rather a max pack. That means they likely WON'T be ahead of you for an adventure or explorer mid-range. Also, why no max-pack at launch? Most likely, they don't have the battery supply yet. When will they? Who can be certain given the nature of these supply chain disruptions? But in any case, a mid-range order might put you ahead of years-long preorder holders, reducing wait time a smidge. I might personally switch up to a max pack if my order comes up earlier than cobbling together a decent enough down payment does.

And note, I say this as advice. Not as a super fan of the company, which I pathetically am. But I don't care if you order one. They're set for at least a decade with the van deal and I'm not at all worried about how well their sales will go once sightings become commonplace throughout the country.
 

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Rivian is on the edge of a tipping point, facing a rapid ramp-up in market acceptance of EVs, and entering a global industry with significant Asian, European and American competition.

  • The Tipping Point by Malcolm Gladwell is a book about how small actions at the right time, in the right place, and with the right people can create a "tipping point" for anything from a product to an idea to a trend.
  • According to Everett Rogers' "diffusions of innovation curve", we're entering phase two, an early adopters phase of market acceptance of a new innovation; his model posits that innovators represent 2.5% of the market for a new innovation; early adopters 13.5%; early majority 34%; late majority 34%, and laggards 16%.
  • China is the largest automobile market in the world and the country with the largest number of EVs and EV companies, but the market for EVs is global, not national or even regional.
  • Rivian is not really competing with Tesla which is way ahead of the curve on EVs compared with everyone else. Rivian's rivals are GM, Ford, Nio, BYD, Mercedes, Porsche, Lucid and so on.
In light of this, Rivian's IPO is risky but strategically imperative. It will take two years before Normal reaches full capacity and, in light of the rapid expansion of EV markets, that's just a drop in the bucket. As we know, Rivian is already scouting a second US factory and battery R&D center, and that will take several years to be brought on stream. And then there are the Asian and European markets.

Tesla has 5 mega-factories on-line or about to be brought on line. GM, Ford, Geely and others have existing capacity that can be converted to EVs. In the face of this gathering competition, it's do or die time for Rivian because getting in the game 2 or 3 years from now will be too late. If you're not already a player by the time the early majority buys in, it will be too late.

The question is, "how much volume do you need to be a player in 2-3 years time?" Rivian will likely be producing no more than 200-250K vehicles in this time frame (50K vans + 150-200K trucks), and that's not enough to be a major player. However, Rivian may be positioned to double that capacity in short order, and that's what this IPO is about.

Can Rivian become a major player in the global auto market in the next five years?

No matter how good Rivians are now or in the next few years, a major shakeout in the global EV market is coming Hopefully, Rivian will be among the last firms standing when that happens. This year's IPO is a strategically imperative but risky step for Rivian.
 

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...
  • Rivian is not really competing with Tesla which is way ahead of the curve on EVs compared with everyone else. Rivian's rivals are GM, Ford, Nio, BYD, Mercedes, Porsche, Lucid and so on.

No matter how good Rivians are now or in the next few years, a major shakeout in the global EV market is coming Hopefully, Rivian will be among the last firms standing when that happens. This year's IPO is a strategically imperative but risky step for Rivian.
You make very good points; however, two supplementary views:
  • I think the biggest competition will come from China, not the usual names.
  • Although I agree with you on the EV market shake up, for auto buyers there are two reasons they base their purchasing decisions:
    • (1) exterior design, and
    • (2) interior design
Even though China will produce more, in quantity and in variation, EVs and possibly more technically advanced ones, I cannot see them topping American or European designs. I don't think people will be buying EVs for their electric propulsion, but for their designs that electric propulsion will enable companies to new heights of creativity.
 

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You make very good points; however, two supplementary views:
  • I think the biggest competition will come from China, not the usual names.
  • Although I agree with you on the EV market shake up, for auto buyers there are two reasons they base their purchasing decisions:
    • (1) exterior design, and
    • (2) interior design
Even though China will produce more, in quantity and in variation, EVs and possibly more technically advanced ones, I cannot see them topping American or European designs. I don't think people will be buying EVs for their electric propulsion, but for their designs that electric propulsion will enable companies to new heights of creativity.
The last few decades have taught us to never underestimate the public's appetite for cheap crap, so I'm hesitant to accept this quite yet.

For production ramp-up, they're doing it the smart way. Heck, if I'm going to print 500 copies of something, I'll always print a sample or two to make sure it's right before sending the job to the printer. If I'm doing something like Rivian, the delays won't hurt the long-term viability anywhere near as much as putting out a rushed, crappy product would.
 

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I too am thinking about putting an order in and just joined this site, as I own a 18 Raptor and 100 buck fill ups suck. I am not sure if I put a deposit down and Rivian later folds could you get your money back. Right now at a 1.18-2 billion loss operation can not be expected to last forever. I will put down a deposit and wait and see what happens these trucks look cool to me.
 

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I too am thinking about putting an order in and just joined this site, as I own a 18 Raptor and 100 buck fill ups suck. I am not sure if I put a deposit down and Rivian later folds could you get your money back. Right now at a 1.18-2 billion loss operation can not be expected to last forever. I will put down a deposit and wait and see what happens these trucks look cool to me.
The general consensus is if the 1k is going to break you, a 70-80k vehicle probably isn't the best choice.

As for the spending vs revenue, there is another thread going into great deal on it. Remember Rivian has already raised 10B. They are aiming for another 8B raised from the IPO. They will be around for a few years at least.
 

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The general consensus is if the 1k is going to break you, a 70-80k vehicle probably isn't the best choice.

As for the spending vs revenue, there is another thread going into great deal on it. Remember Rivian has already raised 10B. They are aiming for another 8B raised from the IPO. They will be around for a few years at least.
Really is not much difference between a 70-80k EV Truck and a 100k GMC Hummer and I would imagine if I placed both deposits today, I bet I would get the GMC first.
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