Time to delivery.... if I order now.

Rivians

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I have never heard anything about Rivian completing all pre orders by end of 2022.

I base my estimate on several experiences with Semiconductor HVM start ups. I estimate/guess that I am in the 45,000-55,000th section of reservations.

It seems to me to be common sense that Rivian who has never done HVM before will need a substantial amount of time to ramp up production and to wrestle with supply constraints.

I think Rivian is and will continue to do an extremely good job of building the production ramp. My estimates are not based on any negativity towards Rivian, quite the contrary.

I sincerely hope my estimates are way off but in this world of a screwed up supply chain, the tsunami of manufacturers moving to EV and the inherent complexity of starting up high volume vehicle manufacturing from scratch …. I may actually be optimistic in my estimates.
What you're way too optimistic on is reservations to converted orders. Even the almighty reservation king the Ford Bronco is seeing a 70% conversion rate. You think Rivian will best that? No chance at all. Let's go with your high range est of 55k reservations and a super high conversion rate of 70%.. thats 38k orders to fulfill in 16 months.
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Sdvictor

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I am not concerned about my $1000 deposit as IMO Rivian is solid and if you can afford a $70-90K vehicle then you can afford the deposit.

I reserved 3/20/21 and do not expect my R1T until late 2023 to mid 2024. I also have a 6/3/21 reservation on the Lightning and expect it late 2023. I prefer the Rivian and more than likely will pass on the Lightning.

One thing that is not up in the air and full of unknowns and speculation is that I will not purchase another ICE.
I'm placed my second reservation in August, and they said that orders placed that week are targeted for mid to late 2022. I think you'll get your truck a lot sooner
 

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What you're way too optimistic on is reservations to converted orders. Even the almighty reservation king the Ford Bronco is seeing a 70% conversion rate. You think Rivian will best that? No chance at all. Let's go with your high range est of 55k reservations and a super high conversion rate of 70%.. thats 38k orders to fulfill in 16 months.
I agree that I may be over estimating conversion to orders. For my sake I hope so.

But even 38,000 manufactured and delivered vehicles is IMHO a huge under taking in today’s world.

All speculation aside, time will tell.
 

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I'm placed my second reservation in August, and they said that orders placed that week are targeted for mid to late 2022. I think you'll get your truck a lot sooner
I really hope so.

A few weeks ago I asked CS when they expected LE deliveries to be complete. Their answer was “ who knows”. Direct quote. Maybe that CS was having a tough day. To be clear the CS did follow up with Rivian was doing everything they could to complete the LE deliveries ASAP. I believe Rivian is doing everything it can.

I have asked CS several times about my estimated build date was told it could be a long wait but they were working hard to make it happen ASAP.

I really do hope my estimates are wrong.

I think the days of getting something we want when we want it may not return for quite sometime.

We are also on the leading edge of a market disruption and have to expect confusion, frustration and delays.
 
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Sdvictor

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I really hope so.

A few weeks ago I asked CS when they expected LE deliveries to be complete. Their answer was “ who knows”. Direct quote. Maybe that CS was having a tough day. To be clear the CS did follow up with Rivian was doing everything they could to complete the LE deliveries ASAP. I believe Rivian is doing everything it can.

I have asked CS several times about my estimated build date was told it could be a long wait but they were working hard to make it happen ASAP.

I really do hope my estimates are wrong.

I think the days of getting something we want when we want it may not return for quite sometime.

We are also on the leading edge of a market disruption and have to expect confusion, frustration and delays.
Word is that Ford has lent engineering and mfg support from some wholely owned subsidiaries to drive initial mfg ramp up.

I heard from some folks I know working with Rivian.
 

electrictaco

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I really hope so.

A few weeks ago I asked CS when they expected LE deliveries to be complete. Their answer was “ who knows”. Direct quote. Maybe that CS was having a tough day. To be clear the CS did follow up with Rivian was doing everything they could to complete the LE deliveries ASAP. I believe Rivian is doing everything it can.

I have asked CS several times about my estimated build date was told it could be a long wait but they were working hard to make it happen ASAP.

I really do hope my estimates are wrong.

I think the days of getting something we want when we want it may not return for quite sometime.

We are also on the leading edge of a market disruption and have to expect confusion, frustration and delays.
I think you’re conflating two things here. Completing the last Launch Edition deliveries has more to do with opening service centers in the far flung corners of the U.S. and Canada than with production timelines.

I believe that if you live in a major metro area and you order a Rivian now, you will get it in 2022. The same might not be the case if you live somewhere with no service center. I also believe that some Adventure and Explore orders will be fulfilled before some Launch Edition orders.
 

ccmun

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Back in August Electrek reported "Ford’s (F150 Electric) new plan includes a ramp to 15,000 vehicles in 2022, 55,000 in 2023, and 80,000 in 2024." However last week several outlets reported that with additional investment the plan is now 40K in 2022, and 80,000 in 2023.

Given that Rivian does not have the capacity and experience of Ford, this makes me a bit nervous that Rivian will be able to scale up to even 15K per year during 2022. I really hope they can, and that my Nov 20 preorder makes it to me by fall. 22. The wait will be agony, especially after I see one in the flesh.
 

ccmun

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So I looked at Tesla to get a sense of whether Rivian will be able meet our expectations. If Tesla's history is a guide, Rivian may will be in great shape. It does not face the early skepticism about electric vehicles that Tesla faced and spent a decade in design and preproduction mode. So that bodes well for us.

Tesla produced 3,000 Model S cars in 2012. I think that represented 6 months of production.
Tesla produced 22,442 cars in 2013. Its first full year of production. (Source: Tesla, CleanTechnica)

I have no idea about the accuracy of Rivian preorder estimates floating around. Hopefully they will be able to ramp up to at least 1K production vehicles per month in early 2022, which leaves me somewhat optimistic about seeing my ride in 2022.
 

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I'm placed my second reservation in August, and they said that orders placed that week are targeted for mid to late 2022. I think you'll get your truck a lot sooner
Did this come from CS? That's the only ballpark idea I've heard from Rivian.

A few weeks ago I asked CS when they expected LE deliveries to be complete. Their answer was “ who knows”. Direct quote. Maybe that CS was having a tough day.
Whiever that was, they're now My favorite CS rep.

Word is that Ford has lent engineering and mfg support from some wholely owned subsidiaries to drive initial mfg ramp up.
Darren Palmer said as much this week. They're helping Rivian with manufacturing and ramp up, and Rivian is helping Ford with a startup mentality. I kind of suspect Ford may also be helping Rivian with supply chain issues. But that's just a bunch.

Back in August Electrek reported "Ford’s (F150 Electric) new plan includes a ramp to 15,000 vehicles in 2022, 55,000 in 2023, and 80,000 in 2024." However last week several outlets reported that with additional investment the plan is now 40K in 2022, and 80,000 in 2023.
Darren Palmer pretty flatly said these are wrong and they won't release their numbers.
 
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kurtlikevonnegut

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I personally will be very surprised if Rivian doesn't significantly outpace Tesla in their respective first full year of production (assuming production isn't significantly restrained by supply chain disruption).
 

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I like the R1T/R1S/Amazon Van and Rivian. I am jazzed about so many folks going for EVs with the end of ICE on the horizon.

So as hard as it is to wait, I will wait. In the meantime speculation is helping pass the time.
 

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After participating in this thread I have decided to cancel my F150 Lightning reservation.

Recent Rivian milestone accomplishments, their commitment to the environment and that the R1T is IMO a great vehicle and fits my needs/wants the best.

So I will wait.
 

TAZ

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About two weeks ago I ask CS about estimated delivery times and they provided the following.

"We'll be wrapping up with all LE deliveries in the Spring, but that does include R1T, R1S, as well as Canadian deliveries. "

When asked more specifically.
"I have to apologize upfront, because I truly don't have a way to pinpoint that for you. I can share that you'll be contacted before Thanksgiving by your personal Rivian Guide though to walk (guide) you through the next steps, including what to expect for timing and what that entails. "

I should also add, I placed my reservation on 11/2020 and have a R1T LE on order.
 

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After participating in this thread I have decided to cancel my F150 Lightning reservation.

Recent Rivian milestone accomplishments, their commitment to the environment and that the R1T is IMO a great vehicle and fits my needs/wants the best.

So I will wait.
I actually added a Lightning pre-order, 6 weeks after placing my R1S pre-order. Just in case Rivian production gets off to a slow start or we start seeing problems with them. Just a $100 insurance policy. I REALLY hope to be dropping that Ford pre-order...."in a sh0rt amount 0f time"!
 
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