What you're way too optimistic on is reservations to converted orders. Even the almighty reservation king the Ford Bronco is seeing a 70% conversion rate. You think Rivian will best that? No chance at all. Let's go with your high range est of 55k reservations and a super high conversion rate of 70%.. thats 38k orders to fulfill in 16 months.I have never heard anything about Rivian completing all pre orders by end of 2022.
I base my estimate on several experiences with Semiconductor HVM start ups. I estimate/guess that I am in the 45,000-55,000th section of reservations.
It seems to me to be common sense that Rivian who has never done HVM before will need a substantial amount of time to ramp up production and to wrestle with supply constraints.
I think Rivian is and will continue to do an extremely good job of building the production ramp. My estimates are not based on any negativity towards Rivian, quite the contrary.
I sincerely hope my estimates are way off but in this world of a screwed up supply chain, the tsunami of manufacturers moving to EV and the inherent complexity of starting up high volume vehicle manufacturing from scratch …. I may actually be optimistic in my estimates.