Anyone worried?

[peashooter]

1. What information have you received from Tesla regarding the Cybertruck, since you reserved it?
2. We have received some updates on production. We have gone from late 2020 to 2021. Also, you may have noticed that there is a global pandemic which makes estimating the future very difficult. I don't blame them for not having a firm date, since they could be shut down by the pandemic in the future.
3. I hate to tell you that Tesla has to buy batteries too. They buy them from Panasonic, LG Chem and Catl. It remains to be seen what kind of prices they will get on batteries. Tesla is likely to have an advantage on price, due to their larger scale, but I doubt their will be much difference in the technology. The battery manufactures all make pretty good batteries.
4. Tesla is speculated to have a new battery design. They haven't announced anything, and until they start producing it, it is speculation.
5. I seriously doubt the Cybertruck will beat Rivian to market. They haven't completed the purchase of the land on which they going to build the factory which will have equipment installed to produce the vehicle. It is highly unlikely that the Cybertruck will hit the market in 2021. The Cybertruck is a completely new design, using new materials and it will take extra time for production to start.

1. There almost weekly updates from Musk on features, thoughts, etc.
2. the last update i saw was almost a year ago of 10 door panels and all other pictures are of a dead empty warehouse
4. Yes, battery day will be exciting, you better hope they have nothing
5. Rivian has empty warehouses, you don't think Tesls knows how to spin up a factory? Look what they did in China

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[DucRider]

Full Disclosure: I have a reservation for both Rivian and CyberTruck. Up until last year, I was 100% on board with Rivian and thought Tesla was about to go out of business. Then they build a factory in China in a few months, one in Germany, one coming soon in Texas. They buy a battery technology company, create new gigantic fabrication mold equipment, etc.

So now I am 95% CyberTruck and 5 % Rivian and here is why:
1. Rivian is horrible at communication and PR. Please stop with the adventure videos, I don't care about the rock climbing dude taking a truck for a ride in the desert.
2. We have had zero update on production, design, etc. in years
3. Rivian has to buy batteries and do you think they are going to get the best prices and technology over Tesla, Hell NO
4. Tesla is about to release a custom in house designed battery. If they announce it in September, its GAME over for Rivian.
5. I actually think that CyberTruck will come to market first over Rivian and that is REALLY SAD!

Tesla does not make their own batteries, Panasonic makes them for them (US) with other suppliers for the Chinese market.
Musk even directly placed the blame on Panasonic for lower than expected M3 deliveries in Q1 of 2019 due to only 2/3rds of the production they expected from the Gigafactory lines.

The Rivian reveal was less than 2 years ago, we have had updates on lower price, increased range, more features, faster charging. Any statement about "no update for years" is an exaggeration at best.

Tesla bought battery research companies, no actual battery production.

There is some indication that Rivian may manufacture their own batteries, but nothing announced.

Tesla has yet to decide on a location and purchase land for the Cybertruck factory, let alone break ground, order assembly line equipment, etc. The chances of them entering production before Rivian are near zero.

The good news is they don't have to worry about a solution for their paint issues with the Cybertruck.

No problem with someone deciding on the Tesla over the Rivian, and Tesla does hold some distinct advantages. Just none of the ones listed. Their Supercharging infrastructure being primary.

Tweets/thoughts from Musk hold little weight with me as they are often detached from reality and what is actually eventually produced. Full self driving capability time frames and cross country documented trips come to mind (but there are many other examples).

Right now nobody has to choose because neither is available or can actually be configured/ordered.

 

[jjwolf120]

1. There almost weekly updates from Musk on features, thoughts, etc.
2. the last update i saw was almost a year ago of 10 door panels and all other pictures are of a dead empty warehouse
4. Yes, battery day will be exciting, you better hope they have nothing
5. Rivian has empty warehouses, you don't think Tesls knows how to spin up a factory? Look what they did in China

1. That's nice. Is he showing you additional prototypes? Testing of prototypes? Advances toward production? Would you be happy if R.J. was emailing you weekly, with these things. I only need to know about actual progress in producing the vehicle. Each person may have different needs, wants and desires in this area.
2. I've seen pictures of vehicles doing testing, machines being installed, additional construction of the plant.
4. I assume they have something, otherwise they wouldn't be having an event. I just don't assume that I know exactly what they will announce.
5. First that's China. The German factory isn't being built quite as fast. Also, they are building the Model 3, which they already know how to produce. How long did it take from announcement to production for each entirely new design that Tesla has produced? Note that the Model Y is not an entirely new design.

 

[jjwolf120]

If they won't provide a way to upgrade their battery packs, then I won't buy one. We already have to make a lot of compromises by buying an electric vehicle, and if I have to live with those compromises for the life of the vehicle, then I it doesn't make sense for me to buy one until those compromises no longer exist. I am not the type of person to cycle through vehicles. My current car is 15 years old and I am very happy with it. I would keep something like the Rivian for 15 or 20 years as well. But if I am going to be stuck with 150 mile range while towing for the life of the vehicle, then I would rather just go for a hybrid truck.

If you get the 185 kwh pack and assuming that prices come down in the future to $100 per kwh (expected by 2025, Tesla may get their quicker) at the pack level, then it would cost $18,500 for the pack plus labor to swap out your battery pack. How big an advance in battery density would it take for that to be a worthwhile endeavor? On the plus side, your existing battery pack, might have some residual value.

 

[discsinthesky]

1. Rivian is horrible at communication and PR. Please stop with the adventure videos, I don't care about the rock climbing dude taking a truck for a ride in the desert.

Honestly, I love the comms/PR, but I think I'm precisely the demographic they're targeting with it.

 

[electruck]

@peashooter You seem to have forgotten that Tesla didn't just start churning out new cars over night when they were getting started.

https://www.businessinsider.com/most-important-moments-tesla-history-2017-2

For example, it took over 3 years from Model S prototype to first delivery and that was without the interruption of a global pandemic. It was over 3.5 yrs for Model X. Model 3 was about 15 months and we all saw just how smoothly that went. Sure, they are a much more mature company today but you also can't expect a new manufacturer to have the same capability as a company that has been delivering cars for over 8 years. Rivian is by no means lacking progress, it seems you just choose not to see what is in plain sight.

Rivian and Tesla are very different companies. That doesn't mean they can't co-exist and both be successful. That said, if Tesla suits you better or if Tweeting with Elon makes you happy, then by all means buy a Tesla.

 

[discsinthesky]

If you get the 185 kwh pack and assuming that prices come down in the future to $100 per kwh (expected by 2025, Tesla may get their quicker) at the pack level, then it would cost $18,500 for the pack plus labor to swap out your battery pack. How big an advance in battery density would it take for that to be a worthwhile endeavor? On the plus side, your existing battery pack, might have some residual value.

Assuming the rest of the vehicle holds up, I would gladly pay for that $100 per kwh battery swap down the road. I love the idea of swapping batteries and using a vehicle indefinitely (a longevity-focused approach to vehicle design). Also, I'm expecting 15-20 years before even thinking about a battery swap, so presumably it will be a lot cheaper than $100 per kwh by then, and hopefully better in other ways as well.

 

[jjwolf120]

Assuming the rest of the vehicle holds up, I would gladly pay for that $100 per kwh battery swap down the road. I love the idea of swapping batteries and using a vehicle indefinitely (a longevity-focused approach to vehicle design). Also, I'm expecting 15-20 years before even thinking about a battery swap, so presumably it will be a lot cheaper than $100 per kwh by then, and hopefully better in other ways as well.

I like the idea of using the vehicle indefinitely, but as someone who had a Subaru for 22 years, there are a lot of things that are in need of replacement after 22 years.

 

[discsinthesky]

I like the idea of using the vehicle indefinitely, but as someone who had a Subaru for 22 years, there are a lot of things that are in need of replacement after 22 years.

I get that, I just wonder if vehicles could be designed for extremely long lifespans, instead of being an afterthought? It seems like BEVs, with the smaller parts list, make this approach much more feasible, but I'm definitely just speculating and hoping.

I'm seeing echos of this ethos and line of thinking in the latest battery video from Rivian, which has me very excited. If you're considering second life/end of life uses for the battery, hopefully you're also thinking about how to maximize the useful life of the rest of the vehicle.

 

[CappyJax]

If you get the 185 kwh pack and assuming that prices come down in the future to $100 per kwh (expected by 2025, Tesla may get their quicker) at the pack level, then it would cost $18,500 for the pack plus labor to swap out your battery pack. How big an advance in battery density would it take for that to be a worthwhile endeavor? On the plus side, your existing battery pack, might have some residual value.

If a newer, cheaper, and better battery is available, then why would they continue to make the older, more expensive, and lower density batteries. And if they do continue to make them, they will probably go for a huge premium. A big reason the cost of batteries is expected to drop is because of batteries that are more advanced, use cheaper materials, and have better scaling capacities. So, if that happens and the current batteries are made less and less, then their price will just go up as they will be harder to find. So, I highly doubt it will be $100/kWh in 5 years for the same pack, because it will still be using the more expensive technologies.

And, the more I think about this, the more I feel this is leaving your customers out to dry. Rivian isn't a company with hundreds of thousands of vehicles on the road all using common parts, so the after market retrofits won't be a huge market, and they won't be cheap.

This is a typical Apple scam. Make sure you product is obsolete in a few years so people have to buy new. That isn't ethical, and it isn't environmental.

 

[jjwolf120]

If a newer, cheaper, and better battery is available, then why would they continue to make the older, more expensive, and lower density batteries. And if they do continue to make them, they will probably go for a huge premium. A big reason the cost of batteries is expected to drop is because of batteries that are more advanced, use cheaper materials, and have better scaling capacities. So, if that happens and the current batteries are made less and less, then their price will just go up as they will be harder to find. So, I highly doubt it will be $100/kWh in 5 years for the same pack, because it will still be using the more expensive technologies.

And, the more I think about this, the more I feel this is leaving your customers out to dry. Rivian isn't a company with hundreds of thousands of vehicles on the road all using common parts, so the after market retrofits won't be a huge market, and they won't be cheap.

This is a typical Apple scam. Make sure you product is obsolete in a few years so people have to buy new. That isn't ethical, and it isn't environmental.

So, if you have a 2013 Tesla Model S, can you replace the battery back with the new 100kwh pack? Can you even buy a 100 kwh battery pack from Tesla?

 

[DucRider]

People seem to be forgetting that to "upgrade" to more range (why else would you switch packs?), you need to increase the pack size. So @ $100/kWh a 50% range boost from the 185 kWh pack means ~$30K by the time you add in labor - but only if there are not any other components (like cooling, charging, inverters, BMS, etc) that need to be swapped in addition to the pack itself. Pack will likely also be heavier - maybe even by as much as the 50% gain in kWh and that could entail suspension work and potentially reduce towing/payload capacity.

The only EV that I know of that has/had an official upgrade path is the i3 (but not in North America). Going from the 60Ah pack (22 kWh) to the 94 Ah (33 kWh) gained people ~40 miles in range and cost ~$7K.

 

[CappyJax]

People seem to be forgetting that to "upgrade" to more range (why else would you switch packs?), you need to increase the pack size. So @ $100/kWh a 50% range boost from the 185 kWh pack means ~$30K by the time you add in labor - but only if there are not any other components (like cooling, charging, inverters, BMS, etc) that need to be swapped in addition to the pack itself. Pack will likely also be heavier - maybe even by as much as the 50% gain in kWh and that could entail suspension work and potentially reduce towing/payload capacity.

The only EV that I know of that has/had an official upgrade path is the i3 (but not in North America). Going from the 60Ah pack (22 kWh) to the 94 Ah (33 kWh) gained people ~40 miles in range and cost ~$7K.

As energy density goes up, then that means the pack can have a higher energy density for the same weight. You likely can't go much heavier as the packs are designed to be as physically dense as possible.

As we move toward the direction of solid state batteries, heating and cooling needs will be less. Charging issues decrease. The same inverter can be used because you can match the pack voltage to that of the older packs. The BMS would simply be a software update. The packs are very modular, and it wouldn't be difficult to change them out with new cell types. The problem is whether or not it will be cost effective for the after market to do it. It would likely be much more expensive than if the manufacturer sold a new upgraded pack.

Also, If the packs today go for 200,000 miles and cost $30K, and the packs in 5 years go for 1,000,000 miles and cost $30K, then the overall cost per mile drops to 1/5th. So, it would certainly be worth upgrading at $30K versus buying new at $80 or $90K.

 

[Coast2Coast]

In China, a completely different market but the world's largest BEV market, NIO, a leading Chinese BEV maker, just swapped out its 500,000th battery pack earlier in the month. Renault in France leases batteries, swapping out the old and swapping in the new, for its best selling Clio.

https://jalopnik.com/nio-has-completed-500-000-ev-battery-swaps-1843891655

Swapping batteries works if battery packs are designed to be swapped. In Nio's case, swapping out for the same size battery is free. (Swapping batteries is a substitute for charging which can be tricky in China.) Swapping out for a bigger battery (but the same size battery pack) cost $10/day.

NIO's battery swapping service is designed to improve the electric powered vehicle ownership experience. It takes away the fuss and muss of charging though NIOs can be charged, if that's what owners prefer. Batteries can be swapped in 5-6 mintues. (It's like Tesla giving away SuperCharging in the old days to enhance the Tesla ownership experience. Tesla also experimented with one battery swapping station in central California for a few months, but discontinued the service.)

The point is swapping batteries is doable and it's not all that difficult or expensive to do. NIO's battery swapping stations can be moved to new locations and hooked up in a few day's time.

Rivian and RJ have said on a number of occasions that battery swap-outs will not be an offered service. Yes, old battery packs can be pulled and new battery packs installed, but that will not be offered as a routine service.

Too bad, as I think the idea of swappable battery packs would be something that might have great appeal and it could be another revenue generating activity. If there's going to be a Rivian Adventure Network where vehicles can be charged, why not offer battery swapping and leasing services a la NIO and Renault at the same locations?

 

[LeoH]

It is going to be hard to quote 15 posts so I will pick the ones I could remember

1- Updates from the CEO/Owner : Yes, I really would like to see more updates on timelines, sometimes even if they say " We do not know yet" it's better than nothing. The online configuration should be here, and it was pushed, but it would be nice to hear about it more. Overall, not a factor in whether I buy the R1S or not. I would rate my concern as " Low "

2- Battery size upgrade: Here is the thing, if you buy a 320BMW, do you go back and ask them to drop a 325 engine in it? Yes, I understand there is a more modular approach within BEVs, but the affordable range upgrades with Tesla actually came due to a software lock, not battery switch. Battery switches came at a very high cost, as a matter of fact my first model S was totaled because the price to replace the damaged battery was 22K which pushed the repair bill to well over the 50% value. That is not to say there isn't a way for Rivian to do this, but the cost is standard all across the board. This is also a selective issue, I had a S60 and not have S90, the 30kw made a difference to me ONCE, and that was my wife forgot to plug in the car 3 days in a row so shame on me. Again, does not factor in my decision, i would rate my concern here as " None"

3- Factory Readiness : If we want to compare apples to apples, Rivian is ahead of Tesla. Tesla produced, and still producing, very suspect quality vehicles. Why? New manufacturer. They are also expanding the plan in Normal IL. One thing we are not clear on is whether the expansion is needed for 2021 deliveries or just for future deliveries. This for me could rank also as "Low"

4- Service: That is where I am really worried, where are the service centers? If we are really 6-9 months away from the first deliveries, you would think there would be at least some news about service centers or how the services will be provided. Tesla tried their service plan, and it is horrendous, the worst I have ever experienced so I hope they have a better plan, but I know nothing concrete about it. Conery is "Very high"

5-Telsa law suit: The initial though depends on your Bias. I admire RJ for his scientific background as we share some things, I think Musk is a publicity clown who did one thing right, and rode the wave where he is heading towards a storm armed with 3 rubber ducks and bag of cement. I tried to read the legal jargon, could not get anywhere with it. But I can't see RJ involved, which will absolve Rivian,but that does not mean the employees did not do anything wrong on their own. Concern is "None"