Anyone worried?

ajdelange

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I think Musk is a publicity clown who did one thing right, and rode the wave where he is heading towards a storm armed with 3 rubber ducks and bag of cement.
Wow. Just one thing and it made him the 5th richest man in the world. Wish I'd found that one thing.
 

ajdelange

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Tesla has yet to decide on a location and purchase land for the Cybertruck factory, let alone break ground, order assembly line equipment, etc. The chances of them entering production before Rivian are near zero.
I realize this was posted Monday but Tesla actually began construction on the Austin site the preceding weekend.

Why do we think they have ordered no assembly line equipment or any etc.?

Why do we think the only place Tesla can assemble Cybertrucks is in a new facility?

Why is "common sense" called common since it is evidently so rare?

Who will hit the street first? I have no idea. Rivian has been at their truck design for quite a bit longer but as Elon pointed out in yesterday's earnings call the engineering that goes into the vehicle is about 1/10th (I think he said) of the engineering that goes into manufacturing it. Tesla has been at that for much longer (or at least has orders of magnitude more man hours invested in it) than Rivian.

My nightmare is that my wife will interrupt me while I'm on the phone discussing my delivery with Rivian to tell me that Tesla is on the other line. OK - so it is really more like a midsummer night's dream than a nightmare.
 

CappyJax

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It is going to be hard to quote 15 posts so I will pick the ones I could remember :)

1- Updates from the CEO/Owner : Yes, I really would like to see more updates on timelines, sometimes even if they say " We do not know yet" it's better than nothing. The online configuration should be here, and it was pushed, but it would be nice to hear about it more. Overall, not a factor in whether I buy the R1S or not. I would rate my concern as " Low "

2- Battery size upgrade: Here is the thing, if you buy a 320BMW, do you go back and ask them to drop a 325 engine in it? Yes, I understand there is a more modular approach within BEVs, but the affordable range upgrades with Tesla actually came due to a software lock, not battery switch. Battery switches came at a very high cost, as a matter of fact my first model S was totaled because the price to replace the damaged battery was 22K which pushed the repair bill to well over the 50% value. That is not to say there isn't a way for Rivian to do this, but the cost is standard all across the board. This is also a selective issue, I had a S60 and not have S90, the 30kw made a difference to me ONCE, and that was my wife forgot to plug in the car 3 days in a row so shame on me. Again, does not factor in my decision, i would rate my concern here as " None"

3- Factory Readiness : If we want to compare apples to apples, Rivian is ahead of Tesla. Tesla produced, and still producing, very suspect quality vehicles. Why? New manufacturer. They are also expanding the plan in Normal IL. One thing we are not clear on is whether the expansion is needed for 2021 deliveries or just for future deliveries. This for me could rank also as "Low"

4- Service: That is where I am really worried, where are the service centers? If we are really 6-9 months away from the first deliveries, you would think there would be at least some news about service centers or how the services will be provided. Tesla tried their service plan, and it is horrendous, the worst I have ever experienced so I hope they have a better plan, but I know nothing concrete about it. Conery is "Very high"

5-Telsa law suit: The initial though depends on your Bias. I admire RJ for his scientific background as we share some things, I think Musk is a publicity clown who did one thing right, and rode the wave where he is heading towards a storm armed with 3 rubber ducks and bag of cement. I tried to read the legal jargon, could not get anywhere with it. But I can't see RJ involved, which will absolve Rivian,but that does not mean the employees did not do anything wrong on their own. Concern is "None"
1. I agree, more updates would be nice.

2. I would agree with you, but the thing is that when buying an electric vehicle at this point, you are accepting some serious compromises. You have longer recharge times, very poor range while towing, and a lot of unknowns with a new manufacturer. So, especially something like the Rivian that is designed to tow, you lose a lot by buying this vehicle while paying a premium. Toyota is known for its use of upgrading or buying back vehicles when entering a new market.

3. Yes, I agree with this as well. Rivian is playing the slow game and I do think they will have a superior product.

4. The lack of "Rivian" service centers all but convinces me that they will be using Ford. If not, they are way way way behind the curve in this regard. But perhaps they have hundreds of service centers being equipped right now and we just haven't been told. Charging is also still an unknown at this point, isn't it? Have they revealed what charging network they will be using?

5. If anything, this tells me that Musk views Rivian as a very serious threat.
 

jjwolf120

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Why do we think the only place Tesla can assemble Cybertrucks is in a new facility?
Because they don't have room at the Fremont plant to make the Cybertruck and it only makes sense to produce it in North America. Also, because that's where they say they are going to produce it.
 

ajdelange

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I didn't catch the part where he said they couldn't make any in Nevada nor did I catch the part where he said there is no room to do anything other than make X's etc. at Freemont or in China or New York or any of the other places where they have facilities. But I did catch the part where he spoke at some length about how much they have learned about gettin a production line going. Again, I appeal to common sense.
 

jjwolf120

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I didn't catch the part where he said they couldn't make any in Nevada nor did I catch the part where he said there is no room to do anything other than make X's etc. at Freemont or in China or New York or any of the other places where they have facilities. But I did catch the part where he spoke at some length about how much they have learned about gettin a production line going. Again, I appeal to common sense.
They could build facilities in China, Nevada or even Germany to make the Cybertruck, but the majority of sales will be in North America, it is a reasonable inference that they would do it in North America. As far as I know, they don't currently have any car assembly lines running in Nevada.

They are already making Model X, Model S, Model 3 and Model Y at the Fremont factory, I would humbly suggest that they don't have room to set up an entirely different assembly line for the Cybertruck. Which is why Tesla announced that they would be building the Cybertruck (and the semi) in Texas at the new factory that they are building. I'm not sure what you mean by common sense.
 

DucRider

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4. The lack of "Rivian" service centers all but convinces me that they will be using Ford. If not, they are way way way behind the curve in this regard. But perhaps they have hundreds of service centers being equipped right now and we just haven't been told. Charging is also still an unknown at this point, isn't it? Have they revealed what charging network they will be using?
Much more likely to be thru Cox Automotive Group (Pivet?) than Ford for service. They have both physical locations and mobile service and have handled millions of vehicles for fleet operators.
You will be able to use any CCS charger on any network. EA has by far and away the most 350 kW chargers deployed (and installing/expanding rapidly) that will allow a Rivian to charge at their max rate of 300 kW.
 

CappyJax

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Much more likely to be thru Cox Automotive Group (Pivet?) than Ford for service. They have both physical locations and mobile service and have handled millions of vehicles for fleet operators.
You will be able to use any CCS charger on any network. EA has by far and away the most 350 kW chargers deployed (and installing/expanding rapidly) that will allow a Rivian to charge at their max rate of 300 kW.
I wasn't familiar with them. When I see Cox, I think cable TV. I will check that out.
 

ajdelange

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Which is why Tesla announced that they would be building the Cybertruck (and the semi) in Texas at the new factory that they are building.
By your logic there wouldn't be any semi's out there delivering vehicles and parts between Tesla locations. But there are. Where did they come from?

I'm not sure what you mean by common sense.
Common sense says that if you have a huge corporation that builds cars with dozens of facilities all over the US and is planning to start up production of a new line with 700,000 units reserved they aren't going to sit on their hands and wait for completion of a factory that they have just started working on to produce some number of these trucks. They are going to find someplace within their existing resources to start cranking these out in preparation for the construction of the lines where the bulk of production will eventually be done. You may turn out to be totally correct in this but it seems that assuming Tesla will produce no CT prior to completion of the TF goes against common sense.

Try bringing up the recording of Elon's talk yesterday. Maybe that will change your perspective. Maybe not.
 

jjwolf120

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"The Tesla Cybertruck, the all-electric pickup truck set to hit roads late 2021, has a new rollout plan.

During the company's second-quarter 2020 earnings call on Wednesday, CEO Elon Musk outlined how Tesla will use a new facility in Austin, Texas, to produce the new vehicle. The new facility, which Musk dubbed "Giga Texas," will "be doing Cybertruck there, the Tesla"
 

ajdelange

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Yep. That's what he said.
 

jjwolf120

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Then why do you keep trying to say they are going to build it somewhere else? In their "dozens" of factories (they have three currently).

The semi's that are delivering vehicles are prototypes, that they are testing and were not built on an assembly line.

It's like saying that Rivian is producing the R1T and R1S because you seen some on the road (people have).
 

azbill

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EA has by far and away the most 350 kW chargers deployed (and installing/expanding rapidly) that will allow a Rivian to charge at their max rate of 300 kW.
I will add some real numbers here, right from the EA web site:

445 charging sites, OK they have 2 350KW chargers at almost every site (not the urban ones), so best case that is 890 chargers.

There are 109 new sites coming in cycle 2, many of those are the urban sites, again best case 200 more high power chargers. Completion of cycle 2 is December 2021, that is not what I would call a rapid pace.

They are still taking suggestions for sites for cycle 3, which begins Jan 2022.

Plus, total number of chargers is not as much of an issue as total number of sites. Except for the Taycan, no existing vehicle needs more than the 150KW charger, and it is not likely to see many cases where more than two people need the high rate at the same time. The benefit of having two 350KW units at each site is to take care of the failed unit issues, which continue to plague EA. Just browse through PlugShare and you will find many complaints and several cases of stranded drivers on long range trips. Current EV owners are not happy with the pace of expansion, given the poor reliability.
 

ajdelange

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Then why do you keep trying to say they are going to build it somewhere else?
Because I think they probably will. They have shown their ability to surprise the "experts" over and over again and I think there is at least a fair chance that they will again.

You seem very focused on what they can't do. I'm more of a glass half full kind of guy. Let's just leave it at that.
 
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