Time to delivery.... if I order now.

[DeafPug]

For buyers that think they don't have enough tax liability to take full advantage of the $7,500 federal tax credit for an EV purchase, one way to artificially increase your tax liability is to do a Traditional IRA to Roth IRA conversion. You need to do this during the calendar year for your tax year (conversions have a Dec 31 cutoff, not the Apr 15 cutoff for IRA contributions), so some guesses will have to be made as to how much to convert without conversion so much that you would have to pay taxes. This is a way that many people could artificially inflate their tax liability if desired. The advantage of doing this conversion to inflate your tax liability is that you wouldn't pay taxes now (absorb some of the excess tax credit that you couldn't normally claim) or later (withdraw money after age 59.5 from a Roth IRA).

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[Trandall]

There are plenty of fish in the sea. Put another 1K on it and you are set:

Best part is it's -$5,500 after the federal tax credit!
HAHA

 

[Friscorays]

Bummer about March 1, 2022.

 

[CarGuyBD]

Hey Everyone, I'm new here. I've wanted a Rivian for ages and I'm now just able to order one. I'm super excited but I've got a big dilemma right now, I'm an overlander and mountain bike racer, I do a LOT of driving and traveling in addition to my daily driving. I currently use a Ford Explorer specially modified to do the job, which is also my daily driver, I drive a LOT (like 25-30,000/ year). With the modifications my explorer currently gets about 16mpg city and 17mpg highway. I fill up my tank like 12-15x per month. So I'm REALLY looking forward to an electric off roader haha, the R1T.

The dilemma is that my driving is killing me ($750/ month just in fuel) I can't really drive less because of my career. Even without overlanding and racing I drive 20,000 per year. I'm debating trading it for a Subaru Forester which will increase my mpg to 24mpg city and 28mpg highway (on 87, I currently use 93) and yet still allow me to overland.

BUT, if I order a Rivian R1T and the wait is only like 8-10 months to get one, I'll just wait it out. BUT, if the wait is like 18 - 24 months to get a R1T Explore then I'll get a Subaru and trade it after the 2 year wait when my new Rivian is ready.

My question is, if I order one now what is the timeframe to get the order in?

Danggg, Erik, that fuel mileage seems terrible. It doesn’t align with my experience at all. With my Explorer ST (400 hp/415 lb. ft) with the 3.0 twin-turbo it has averaged 24 mpg (40k miles on it) and I have seen 30 mpg. Hwy. a few times (typically 28 mpg). A guy said I was lying so that weekend I took it on a 340 mi. trip averaging almost 70 mph and got 28.9, sending him the pic. I typically get above EPA cited figures though (low 40s in my 350 HP tuned GTI) but sub-20 mpg on a modern Explorer is dreadful. Do you drive in congestion and/or is that off-roading included? It just is so markedly different from my experiences.

 

[sk00pie]

Hi all!

Looking to place an order today. Standard pack. Looking for a ball park estimate to delivery. I can tweak my order based on recommendations for fasted delivery. Thanks!

 

[cohall]

Hi all!

Looking to place an order today. Standard pack. Looking for a ball park estimate to delivery. I can tweak my order based on recommendations for fasted delivery. Thanks!

End of 2023, early 2024 is the best guess at the moment.

 

[ads75]

Hi all!

Looking to place an order today. Standard pack. Looking for a ball park estimate to delivery. I can tweak my order based on recommendations for fasted delivery. Thanks!

Supposedly no-Launch Edition orders will get estimated time frames towards the end of this month. I've only read that online, I place an order in Sep 2021 and haven't seen it from Rivian itself. People may have better guesses once those come out, and those guesses are only based on Rivian projections.

 

[ironpig]

Hi all!

Looking to place an order today. Standard pack. Looking for a ball park estimate to delivery. I can tweak my order based on recommendations for fasted delivery. Thanks!

I think late 2023-early 2024 as others mentioned above makes a lot of sense - but none of us really know until customers start getting production trucks in their hands which won't be until next year at some point. Nobody knows how quickly Rivian can ramp up production and everyone is guessing. By the time you are going to get your delivery, the options you select shouldn't' matter.

 

[mkg3]

Supposedly no-Launch Edition orders will get estimated time frames towards the end of this month. I've only read that online, I place an order in Sep 2021 and haven't seen it from Rivian itself. People may have better guesses once those come out, and those guesses are only based on Rivian projections.

This was the CS response to my question regarding R1S Adventure Package delivery date announcement.

"...However, we will be sending out delivery timing for all Adventure Package preorder holders before the end of the year! Stay tuned!

Feel free to reach out anytime with any additional questions.

Your fellow adventurer,"

Ordered mine last month and am against most people's wisdom around here, I believe it will be filled late 22 or early 23 for R1S.

 

[TheManInTheSea]

Ordered mine last month and am against most people's wisdom around here, I believe it will be filled late 22 or early 23 for R1S.

While I am excited to hear that they will be letting those of us Adventure package holders know when to expect our vehicles, I have to agree with "most people's wisdom" and tell you that I think you're absolutely crazy with your prediction. I want you to prove me wrong, though.

 

[Monkey]

Some of the spy reports and pictures popping up on other social media is showing that production is indeed ramping up. But we're not talking massive quantities or anything just yet. I'm waiting hopefully for my Adventure/max pack email to see where I fall. That reservation was made earlier this year, so not near the front of the line. Until those emails go out and we can reassess the situation, I think the general wisdom here prevails. New orders can probably expect mid to late 2023. Maybe even into 2024 if Rivian has received enough new orders.

 

[mkg3]

Well, since we're all speculating, the reason I believe is late 22 to early 23 is that:
- Total backlog at the end of November was roughly 60K (about 50K R1T and 10K R1S)
- LE delivery window is much later than most people were expecting
- Assuming cancellation rate of 25%~33% which brings down backlog to 40K~45K vehicles
- Rivian statement about delivery timeframe is also function of location and configuration
- Cancelled LE slots not replaced with new LE orders since it is less profitable than Adv Pck

With all that said, if you live in a large auto market (I do, in So Cal) where putting the vehicles into people's hand does the best marketing, I fully expect Rivian to build more R1S than preorder ratio to truck (Preorder Truck vs SUV = 5:1).

Rivian simply has no competition for eSUV this size. Here in SoCal, where just about every fourth car on the road is a Tesla of some type, also have big ICE SUV in the driveway. Rivian know this since they are also HQ'd in SoCal. Expect them to put emphasis on SUV production after the initial truck LE focus in the Q1~Q2 2022.

While the backlog probably has grown since the end of November, people are also hearing how long the wait time is so the growth rate probably is not as high as right after the IPO.

Besides all of the above, I was one of the Day 1 Model 3 reservation holder and waited almost 2 yrs but in the process, I know lots of people including my next door, who reserved it 18 months later got his vehicle a week after mine. I was originally given Nov 2018~ Feb 2019 window by Tesla and got a call in June 2018 to pick up the vehicle. Cancellations happen all the time and at a large percentage. It was a $1K deposit just like Rivian's at the time. I know CT is just $100 so many feel that's really not a real commitment to buy. To me, they are the same when you consider vehicle at $70K+ ($100 or $1000).

We'll know soon enough since there are only 25 days left in the year/month. And the during the earnings call on the 16th. The analysts will hound them on production updates.

 

[Dbeglor]

Well, since we're all speculating, the reason I believe is late 22 to early 23 is that:
- Total backlog at the end of November was roughly 60K (about 50K R1T and 10K R1S)
- LE delivery window is much later than most people were expecting
- Assuming cancellation rate of 25%~33% which brings down backlog to 40K~45K vehicles
- Rivian statement about delivery timeframe is also function of location and configuration
- Cancelled LE slots not replaced with new LE orders since it is less profitable than Adv Pck

With all that said, if you live in a large auto market (I do, in So Cal) where putting the vehicles into people's hand does the best marketing, I fully expect Rivian to build more R1S than preorder ratio to truck (Preorder Truck vs SUV = 5:1).

Rivian simply has no competition for eSUV this size. Here in SoCal, where just about every fourth car on the road is a Tesla of some type, also have big ICE SUV in the driveway. Rivian know this since they are also HQ'd in SoCal. Expect them to put emphasis on SUV production after the initial truck LE focus in the Q1~Q2 2022.

While the backlog probably has grown since the end of November, people are also hearing how long the wait time is so the growth rate probably is not as high as right after the IPO.

Besides all of the above, I was one of the Day 1 Model 3 reservation holder and waited almost 2 yrs but in the process, I know lots of people including my next door, who reserved it 18 months later got his vehicle a week after mine. I was originally given Nov 2018~ Feb 2019 window by Tesla and got a call in June 2018 to pick up the vehicle. Cancellations happen all the time and at a large percentage. It was a $1K deposit just like Rivian's at the time. I know CT is just $100 so many feel that's really not a real commitment to buy. To me, they are the same when you consider vehicle at $70K+ ($100 or $1000).

We'll know soon enough since there are only 25 days left in the year/month. And the during the earnings call on the 16th. The analysts will hound them on production updates.

I don't know where you got the split of R1T vs. R1S, but I don't think it's accurate. I think it's much closer to 50/50, perhaps 55% T, from everything I've seen/heard.

Also, as of now probably 90% of LE holders received delivery windows within the previously expected window, so I don't think there will be much fallout from LE at all. The potential for fallout will be more from recent orders from people that just have no clue it could be up to a two-year wait.

For the couple of analysts that shared expectations regarding production volume today, they seem to be around 30k (40k total including assumed 10k vans) in 2022 and I think it was like 70-80k in 2023 (probably 20k vans). Those are just their projections, but if they prove to be accurate it would mean getting through the backlog as of the IPO by mid 2023, which aligns more or less with what Rivian had been saying. How many more orders since the IPO is the question, and I'm sure we'll hear on the 16th.

 

[Craigins]

https://www.rivianforums.com/forum/...urvey-results-data-trend-analysis-added.2893/

For the LE stats. And as LEs are cancelled, adventure trims will fill the holes. Gotta fill those trucks/railcars.

 

[mkg3]

I don't know where you got the split of R1T vs. R1S, but I don't think it's accurate. I think it's much closer to 50/50, perhaps 55% T, from everything I've seen/heard.

Also, as of now probably 90% of LE holders received delivery windows within the previously expected window, so I don't think there will be much fallout from LE at all. The potential for fallout will be more from recent orders from people that just have no clue it could be up to a two-year wait.

For the couple of analysts that shared expectations regarding production volume today, they seem to be around 30k (40k total including assumed 10k vans) in 2022 and I think it was like 70-80k in 2023 (probably 20k vans). Those are just their projections, but if they prove to be accurate it would mean getting through the backlog as of the IPO by mid 2023, which aligns more or less with what Rivian had been saying. How many more orders since the IPO is the question, and I'm sure we'll hear on the 16th.

I've seen several posts that say they have cancelled their reservations already. Its just he beginning.

As for the split between the truck and SUV, I thought I read that or heard that on one of the financial feeds immediately following the IPO days.

Regardless of the mix, using your numbers, if Rivian can make 30K ('22) and 70~80K in ('23), that totals over 100K and they definitely do not have that many backlog. Rivian Investor Relations' website currently shows 55K backlog as of end of October. So depending on the cancellation rate, may not be late 22 but most likely the first quarter of 23 (which is what I originally said by late 22 or early 23).

I believe Rivian is setting the expectations low and will over deliver. Its been said that by many analysts and perhaps that's why the coverage began so bullish today....

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