Craigins

Well-Known Member
Joined
Jun 10, 2021
Messages
250
Reaction score
474
Location
Chicago Suburbs
Vehicles
RAM Rebel 1500, Prius c 3
Occupation
Software engineer
Just so everything doesn't get lost in the mega thread with the poll, I compiled the links to the survey, the spreadsheet results, the dashboard results, and a geojson here:

https://rivian.craiginsdev.com/

I manually generate the geojson so it won't be in sync with the spreadsheet and dashboard.

1637730964244.png


Enjoy!

Just a quick edit: https://rivian.craiginsdev.com/index2.html has the clustering enabled if you want to drill down into specific areas


Updated 11/27 @ 6PM Eastern with some data trend interpretation / analysis by @Kialoa :

Started looking at the data in the spreadsheet a bit more closely. While there is data that seems to have errors attached (LE AND MaxPack), some duplicates, and some dates typed incorrectly, there is enough to extract trends. I tried to remove most of the suspect entries and made a series of wild assumptions to see what could be learnt from the few hundred remaining data-sets. So far I focused on LE R1T data only. My thoughts so far:

1. The strongest correlation to Projected Delivery Date seems to be the Pre-Order date (Black line in Fig).
2. Within the contiguous 48 states location does not seem to play a significant role
3. Outside the Contig-48 and for Canada the delay seems to be 3-4 quarters (red line below).
4. The Exterior Color, Wheels, Spare, Off-road-Upgrade, and Accessories do not seem to play a significant role
5. Interior Color DOES seem to influence delivery dates. Black Mtn seems to be prioritized. Ocean Coast seems to have a 1-8 week delay, and Forest Edge seems to have the longest delay (4-10 weeks).

Not sure if Excel Figs are legible in this forum, but just in case they are - one of the Figs. I generated is included below. With more data - and more QC of the data - quite a few conclusions could be extracted. Even with the data in hand there is more that could be done to look at non-LE orders, and look at all the R1S data.

survey_1-png.png



Since the last Fig was readable - thought I'd share the estimated impact of the interior color selection. The Black Mtn data is not shown again (was on last Fig) - and is only indicated by black line here. Forest Edge data is in Green with Red Text - clearly right-shifted (delayed). On closer inspection Ocean Coast data (light blue, Black Text) is more complex. Almost seems like a bimodal distribution - SOME of the orders are minimally (0-1 week) delayed wrt Black Mtn. Anther set of orders almost overlap with Forest edge delays. As always, there are some outliers...

survey_2-png.png
Advertisement

 
Last edited by a moderator:

SeaGeo

Well-Known Member
First Name
Brice
Joined
Jan 12, 2021
Messages
2,084
Reaction score
3,674
Location
Seattle
First Name
Brice
Vehicles
Xc60 T8
Occupation
Engineer
Some initial observations. I can't easily quantify the data at the moment, but qualitatively:
  • 4 of the 5 people who responded "earlier" also said they have a max pack or adventure package. So, we have one person who responded with a potential delivery prior to March. Or they don't know what package they ordered is.
  • March-May are basically the R1T orders.
  • The sporadic R1S orders with dates before June seem to be focused on preorder dates from 2018 and 2019. So there does appear to be some organization based on that.
  • Color doesn't seem to be a strong indicator.
  • It may be a coincidence, but there don't appear to be any forest edge interiors in the march-April group. There are several in April-May.
  • TN, TX, CA, WA, CO, MO, MY, PA, UT, NY, GA, WI, IA, OR, NC, VA, AZ, OH, IL are all in the march-April batch. Idaho and Montana are in the April-may batch. I significant preference to location here. The only "obvious" location based deterrent for delivery time frame seems to be Hawaii, Canada and (I'm assuming) Alaska with all of them being in the July-September deliveries.
  • Looks like in general, launch editions R1Ts will be delivered between March through May, with R1S in June and July.
  • July-September seem to generally be the 2020 R1S preorders and the "late delivery" locations.
  • June-July R1T orders seem to generally be the 2020 R1T preorders.
TL:DR order priority seems to be R1T-->R1S, and within each the biggest factor is preorder date. The only impact that location seems to have is if you happen to very friendly, or very Mahalo. Neither of which may be true anymore. :p

Going off this, I'm guessing that adventure and explorer packs won't start till September in any meaningful numbers, with delivery sequence being almost entirely preorder date dependent. It will be interesting to see what impact the max pack plays into delivery dates.

Shifting into pure speculation, I suspect we may see the 2018 and 2019 adventure/explorer packs getting a July-September estimate, particularly the max pack version.

I don't recall, but do we have any surveys of the split between LE and non-LE preorders? Assuming LE are limited to 5-10k total, it seems like they don't anticipate exceeding 2,000 delivers/month until late Q3 or maybe Q4. Which seems to align with the change in the S-1 production numbers between the initial filing and the first amendment. We should be able to get a better idea just through some basic stats if we also have a similar survey with the December email us common folk are expecting.
 

SeaGeo

Well-Known Member
First Name
Brice
Joined
Jan 12, 2021
Messages
2,084
Reaction score
3,674
Location
Seattle
First Name
Brice
Vehicles
Xc60 T8
Occupation
Engineer
Gotta love the responses you get in these surveys. For instance the person who thinks they ordered a Max Pack LE R1S…. :CWL:
Yeah, I know this was thrown together at the last minute, but that's part of what you allow only correct answers. There literally shouldn't be any max pack or adventure or explorer trims in this survey. At least most of those folks put in "later' so it's fairly easy to filter out. There were also a few in a totally different century.
 

lambo

Active Member
First Name
M
Joined
May 30, 2021
Messages
35
Reaction score
44
Location
Silicon Valley
First Name
M
Vehicles
Audi A4 Allroad
Occupation
Software Engineer
Regarding the R1T vs. R1S responses…

At present there are 238 R1T responses in the survey with dates other than [earlier, later] to 177 R1S orders. This amounts to roughly a 60/40 split.
 

Mjhirsch78

Well-Known Member
First Name
Matt
Joined
Aug 29, 2019
Messages
418
Reaction score
986
Location
Washington
First Name
Matt
Vehicles
Honda Odyssey will become an R1T
Occupation
Teacher
As a max pack R1T Feb. 1, 2020, I still have no email. Bummed, but I understand. Curious when those dates start appearing.
 

ESTRUCK

Well-Known Member
First Name
Paul
Joined
Oct 11, 2019
Messages
85
Reaction score
96
Location
New Jersey
First Name
Paul
Vehicles
Bolt EV - Kona EV + 7 others - PREORDERED R1T + R1S
As a max pack R1T Feb. 1, 2020, I still have no email. Bummed, but I understand. Curious when those dates start appearing.
Those dates are promised by year end December 30 / 31 according to Rivian. Lets see is that actually happens. I am starting to doubt everything being posted on the Rivian website.
 

yizzung

Well-Known Member
Joined
Jul 30, 2020
Messages
308
Reaction score
683
Location
San Francisco, CA
Vehicles
allroad
Occupation
Tech
Some initial observations. I can't easily quantify the data at the moment, but qualitatively:
  • 4 of the 5 people who responded "earlier" also said they have a max pack or adventure package. So, we have one person who responded with a potential delivery prior to March. Or they don't know what package they ordered is.
  • March-May are basically the R1T orders.
  • The sporadic R1S orders with dates before June seem to be focused on preorder dates from 2018 and 2019. So there does appear to be some organization based on that.
  • Color doesn't seem to be a strong indicator.
  • It may be a coincidence, but there don't appear to be any forest edge interiors in the march-April group. There are several in April-May.
  • TN, TX, CA, WA, CO, MO, MY, PA, UT, NY, GA, WI, IA, OR, NC, VA, AZ, OH, IL are all in the march-April batch. Idaho and Montana are in the April-may batch. I significant preference to location here. The only "obvious" location based deterrent for delivery time frame seems to be Hawaii, Canada and (I'm assuming) Alaska with all of them being in the July-September deliveries.
  • Looks like in general, launch editions R1Ts will be delivered between March through May, with R1S in June and July.
  • July-September seem to generally be the 2020 R1S preorders and the "late delivery" locations.
  • June-July R1T orders seem to generally be the 2020 R1T preorders.
TL:DR order priority seems to be R1T-->R1S, and within each the biggest factor is preorder date. The only impact that location seems to have is if you happen to very friendly, or very Mahalo. Neither of which may be true anymore. :p

Going off this, I'm guessing that adventure and explorer packs won't start till September in any meaningful numbers, with delivery sequence being almost entirely preorder date dependent. It will be interesting to see what impact the max pack plays into delivery dates.

Shifting into pure speculation, I suspect we may see the 2018 and 2019 adventure/explorer packs getting a July-September estimate, particularly the max pack version.

I don't recall, but do we have any surveys of the split between LE and non-LE preorders? Assuming LE are limited to 5-10k total, it seems like they don't anticipate exceeding 2,000 delivers/month until late Q3 or maybe Q4. Which seems to align with the change in the S-1 production numbers between the initial filing and the first amendment. We should be able to get a better idea just through some basic stats if we also have a similar survey with the December email us common folk are expecting.
Great write up. I think the only ray of hope for us common folk, which will become clear in the next ~30 days, is whether or not these production batches are completely linear or if they start to feather in any other variation at some point in the next 9 months or so.

I know they are prioritizing LE now but supply chain could require some flexibility and perhaps it could make production-sense to sprinkle in some max packs or Ocean Coast before they’ve exhausted all LE orders just to keep the trains running on time… (one can dare to dream, right?)

The only reason I hold out some hope for this is that it still seems odd to me that they would cap the production output so far below capacity for an entire 3 or 4 quarters into the future. All that cash, all that hiring, all the learnings from running the line now result in [crickets]? Zero improvement through September?

What I’m definitely not anticipating is that anyone who has been given a delivery window will be surprised to the upside. That would be off brand… :)
 

carcrazydoc

New Member
First Name
Sean
Joined
Oct 6, 2021
Messages
4
Reaction score
0
Location
Indianapolis, IN
First Name
Sean
Vehicles
2020 BMW M2C, 2018 E63s wagon, 2016 Cayenne GTS
Occupation
physician
Launch Edition R1S estimated delivery window April-May 2022
Reservation November 2018 - correction from 2017
Large pack / Midnight / Black mountain / 22 sport bright wheels / wall charger / all-weather floor mats / field kit
 
Last edited:

svet-am

Well-Known Member
First Name
Tony
Joined
Mar 24, 2021
Messages
299
Reaction score
688
Location
Broomfield, CO
First Name
Tony
Vehicles
R1S (Launch Edition Preorder)
Occupation
Embedded Systems Engineer
he @Craigins - FYI that your form allows multiple submissions. There are several of these kinds of surveys floating around right now and I didn't realize I had already submitted on yours (I looked in the spreadsheet and found my earlier response). Just wanted you to know so the data doesn't get _too_ polluted.
 

tnawara

Member
First Name
Tom
Joined
Nov 16, 2020
Messages
24
Reaction score
41
Location
Chicago, IL
First Name
Tom
Vehicles
Tesla Model 3 Performance
Launch Edition R1S estimated delivery window April-May 2022
Reservation November 2017
Large pack / Midnight / Black mountain / 22 sport bright wheels / wall charger / all-weather floor mats / field kit
Assume you meant November *2018*?
 

Dbeglor

Well-Known Member
Joined
Sep 20, 2021
Messages
274
Reaction score
397
Location
TX
Vehicles
Yes
Great write up. I think the only ray of hope for us common folk, which will become clear in the next ~30 days, is whether or not these production batches are completely linear or if they start to feather in any other variation at some point in the next 9 months or so.
You can tell by the data that they will. Given a ramp in production, if it were only LE and then non-LE, you'd see increasing volume by each delivery window in this survey. I think non-LE likely starts delivering to non-employees by summer, which when added to the LE, creates the percentage ramp expected.
 

Trandall

Well-Known Member
First Name
Travis
Joined
Jan 13, 2021
Messages
466
Reaction score
844
Location
Upstate NY
First Name
Travis
Vehicles
Subaru Ascent, Honda Accord hybrid
Occupation
Construction Management
he @Craigins - FYI that your form allows multiple submissions. There are several of these kinds of surveys floating around right now and I didn't realize I had already submitted on yours (I looked in the spreadsheet and found my earlier response). Just wanted you to know so the data doesn't get _too_ polluted.
Ah crap Svet... Now we have to start again. There goes another 27 pages of forum reading.
 

carlthelemann

New Member
First Name
Carl
Joined
Sep 21, 2021
Messages
1
Reaction score
1
Location
11730
First Name
Carl
Vehicles
Jeep Grand Cherokee
Occupation
Mechanical Engineer
Just so everything doesn't get lost in the mega thread with the poll, I compiled the links to the survey, the spreadsheet results, the dashboard results, and a geojson here:

https://rivian.craiginsdev.com/

I manually generate the geojson so it won't be in sync with the spreadsheet and dashboard.

1637730964244.png


Enjoy!

Just a quick edit: https://rivian.craiginsdev.com/index2.html has the clustering enabled if you want to drill down into specific areas
Thanks, great job. Would be nice to see for each delivery window a breakdown of location, preorder date, and model (basically Rivan's criteria for defining your delivery window).
 
OP
OP

Craigins

Well-Known Member
Joined
Jun 10, 2021
Messages
250
Reaction score
474
Location
Chicago Suburbs
Vehicles
RAM Rebel 1500, Prius c 3
Occupation
Software engineer
he @Craigins - FYI that your form allows multiple submissions. There are several of these kinds of surveys floating around right now and I didn't realize I had already submitted on yours (I looked in the spreadsheet and found my earlier response). Just wanted you to know so the data doesn't get _too_ polluted.
I didn't want to require any tracking info. I figured we'd get more responses, with a little more noise.
 
Advertisement

 
Advertisement
Top