January 2022 Delivery Estimate Removed

SeaGeo

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After today's email, I was left wondering about the 1000 R1Ts supposed to be delivered in 2021 according to the IPO... will *all* of these go to employees then? (or priviledged non-employees)
Seems like it, right?

the 1,000 deliveries in 2021 seems fairly easy to get close to. I'm more curious about their anticipated total production for 2022. Between the initial S-1 filing and the amendment that pushed clearing out pre-orders through 2023 it seems like something happened. They had started with an assumed ~45k delivered through 2022. I wonder if that will even hit 20k now.
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nc10

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Seems like it, right?

the 1,000 deliveries in 2021 seems fairly easy to get close to.
I’m thinking it seems quite unlikely. With most LE deliveries starting in March, I infer rivian is thinking 3-4 more months of fixing QC and other problems.
 
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Atlrivian

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After today's email, I was left wondering about the 1000 R1Ts supposed to be delivered in 2021 according to the IPO... will *all* of these go to employees then? (or priviledged non-employees)

On my test drive last weekend, there were enough features locked out that made me wonder if everything wasn't quite ready for prime-time delivery yet. If there are medium-sized issues that need to be resolved, I'm okay with waiting a few more months for those other people to help solve the problems. Crossing my fingers that this is the final delay, friends and family are starting to doubt my story about this unicorn of a truck being in my driveway soon... 😁
EVERY time I talk to my father in-law he asks when my R1T is coming. Today I had to tell him at least another 6 months, but likely longer. He's going to get a Lightning.
 

yizzung

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What about a fastback? E-tron GT seems like it would meet your needs pretty well.
My wife loves them but my running joke is that you get all the handling of a big SUV combined with the spacious utility of a small sedan… yes I’m being too harsh and may now have to eat my words. But honestly I’m a little worried about German EVs. Having owned three Audis, two BMWs and a Porsche I would never accuse German engineers of being great at electrical engineering. Mechanical yes but almost every car had an electrical gremlin or two.
 

Trandall

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The flurry of delivery related data I've read on this forum over the past 24 hours leads me to the following conclusion; Rivian is not quite ready for prime time deliveries to non employees but feel they will be in 3 more months.
We have multiple data points of 2018 LE preorder holders in proximity to soon to be completed service centers with March/ April 2022 delivery windows. If it was strictly supply constraints I believe they would be able to build and deliver at least a 100/ month for the next three months not zero. Being that their are a multitude of locations in the March/ April delivery window and California already has consumer plates on the roads I don't feel location is the driving factor for timing.
 

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The flurry of delivery related data I've read on this forum over the past 24 hours leads me to the following conclusion; Rivian is not quite ready for prime time deliveries to non employees but feel they will be in 3 more months.
We have multiple data points of 2018 LE preorder holders in proximity to soon to be completed service centers with March/ April 2022 delivery windows. If it was strictly supply constraints I believe they would be able to build and deliver at least a 100/ month for the next three months not zero. Being that their are a multitude of locations in the March/ April delivery window and California already has consumer plates on the roads I don't feel location is the driving factor for timing.

This, it strikes me as odd that they can't just build early customer (public facing versions) off the line slowly and delivery as soon as possible. How is supply constraints for those employee/drive event vehicles? Is it a QC issue they need to sort out? If so that's probably something they should convey.

The fact that almost everyone in certain months will be delivered is setting up for failure if history is any indication unless they are stockpiling vehicles building early and then transporting to location etc.
 

Trandall

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Additionally the 28+ pages of delivery data posted within 24 hours puts to bed any notion of non employees taking delivery and staying under the radar. Also the fact that Audi, VW, Ford and Tesla are able to still produce EV's means supply may be affected but not to zero.
Now Not being ready for prime time may mean financing related, direct sales related, fixing "gremlins", QC or some combo but it is evident that it's at least partially product issues.
I still believe in RIvian, still the best option for the foreseable future for me. They are just showing some rookie mistakes.
 

yizzung

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Rivian has known since July that a big push was coming because they were so far behind and supply lines were constrained, but the IPO was the main corporate focus. That brought in billions.

Now they can start trying to do damage control with the PR around deliveries which really isn't a big story because they can point to people driving them (those people are employees).

Non LE holders should look at late 2023 for any deliveries to start. I am a non-LE reservation holder and I think my deposit went in spring 2020. I was told (through off the record channels) that it might be spring 2024 for my delivery.

Every interview with RJ (who I like and don't think is a bad person) should ask the question "Did you know that deliveries were pushed a year before the IPO?" The answer is yes, but it would be good to get him on the record. It's the right thing to do for customers AND shareholders.

Sunlight is the best disinfectant and they need to get honest about the troubles. They are in "production hell" as you know who used to call it.
If your estimate is correct then they should plan for a bunch of cancellations IMHO. I’m not waiting four years. There will be other decent options by then. When I reserved 1.5 years ago there really wasn’t anything interesting on the horizon but that shouldn’t be the case in 2024… I think we’ll get more clarity when the non-LE communication goes out in December.
 

bd5400

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Non LE holders should look at late 2023 for any deliveries to start. I am a non-LE reservation holder and I think my deposit went in spring 2020. I was told (through off the record channels) that it might be spring 2024 for my delivery.
Why late 2023 for non-LE deliveries? That doesn't make any sense. If the current delivery estimates for LE vehicles are true, meaning they start in the spring and run through September, then at the very latest non-LE deliveries should start fall of 2022, if not earlier. Otherwise, you have a one year gap where nothing is happening.

For new orders, sure, but current non-LE orders shouldn't be waiting until the end of 2023 for those deliveries to even start.
 

ironpig

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Why late 2023 for non-LE deliveries? That doesn't make any sense. If the current delivery estimates for LE vehicles are true, meaning they start in the spring and run through September, then at the very latest non-LE deliveries should start fall of 2022, if not earlier. Otherwise, you have a one year gap where nothing is happening.

For new orders, sure, but current non-LE orders shouldn't be waiting until the end of 2023 for those deliveries to even start.
Why late 2023 for non-LE deliveries? That doesn't make any sense. If the current delivery estimates for LE vehicles are true, meaning they start in the spring and run through September, then at the very latest non-LE deliveries should start fall of 2022, if not earlier. Otherwise, you have a one year gap where nothing is happening.

For new orders, sure, but current non-LE orders shouldn't be waiting until the end of 2023 for those deliveries to even start.
Crap - I had a typo. I meant late 2022 to early 2023. Sorry for the panic.

I feel fairly confident in my info as the same person who told me this also told me that there wouldn't be deliveries to customers this year and that was right before the IPO.
 

ironpig

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If your estimate is correct then they should plan for a bunch of cancellations IMHO. I’m not waiting four years. There will be other decent options by then. When I reserved 1.5 years ago there really wasn’t anything interesting on the horizon but that shouldn’t be the case in 2024… I think we’ll get more clarity when the non-LE communication goes out in December.
I messed up my years - fixed my post - sorry for the unnecessary panic.
 

R1Tr8000

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If your estimate is correct then they should plan for a bunch of cancellations IMHO. I’m not waiting four years. There will be other decent options by then. When I reserved 1.5 years ago there really wasn’t anything interesting on the horizon but that shouldn’t be the case in 2024… I think we’ll get more clarity when the non-LE communication goes out in December.
Pretty much agree with you..and with suspicions raised by others of probable QC and engineering issues. At this point, with this now ‘official’ and additional delay..it’s highly doubtful it’s just ‘supply chain shortages’.
When I consider my late date preorders (1 of each), my need for a Max Pack R1T, the federal tax incentive unknowns, etc..it’s not looking good for me.
Putting all disappointment and emotions aside..I think my plan now is: keep my preorders for now. But I’m also going to dust off my notes and go find a new 1st choice option. It will almost for sure be either a pure or hybrid ICE. If that happens then I’ll watch Rivian for any 2nd generation R1T and see what their battery, charging tech is at that time. This also allows a more realistic time for the RAN and service infrastructure buildout. Maybe with some luck I’ll end up with an R1T in 2026 or 2027..or not.

EDIT, added: Thank you David for posting this list of concerns and challenges that Rivian is still facing.
https://www.rivianforums.com/forum/...delay-from-oct-‘21-to-mar-‘22.2897/post-79334
 
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