How quickly will R2 be built

[Gen(R3)Xer]

My Tri Max is better, but I doubt a 98 KW battery in the R2 will be as good as the 131 battery in the original R1s. I know we all view things for our use case, but given dcfc pedestrian charge curve and competition I think the small pack size is a mistake.

There are many factors as to why Rivian chose to use the sizes of batteries that they have in the R2 (as far as we can speculate). Here’s my hot take.

The R2 is meant to be affordable. The battery is the most expensive part of the car (30-40% of the cost to manufacture). Rivian is currently buying 4695 cells from LG with a future plan to produce them domestically. The battery pack is structural this time. The R2 is smaller than the R1S and can physically only carry so many cells. Rivian had to find a sweet spot between the physical dimensions of the structural pack, the weight, the cost, and the willingness of customers to pay for what they’re offering.

That’s why I think there will be two battery sizes to help bring the $45K single-motor RWD R2 to market, even though most buyers will opt for the larger pack on the more expensive (higher margin) dual-motor AWD trims. I highly doubt they will put the larger battery in the single-motor RWD R2. Even though it would give it a longer range, it would make it too heavy, too expensive, and eat into the sales of the higher trims. I don’t even think they’ll make a max pack for this vehicle, as it would eat into their R1 line that they want to continue selling.

Rivian is in the business of making money so that the company can continue to expand and grow. They can’t do that if they keep losing money. Maybe once the batteries are made domestically, battery chemistries improve (sodium-ion?), or there’s some kind of technological breakthrough (solid state?) things will change, but that will take time and money.

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[LordPasta]

Has there been any update on the LG factory in Arizona that will be supplying the R2 batteries? Are they planning to be the only supplier or is Rivian using another battery source until the plant is fully up and running?

 

[sparked]

Has there been any update on the LG factory in Arizona that will be supplying the R2 batteries? Are they planning to be the only supplier or is Rivian using another battery source until the plant is fully up and running?

Article from August said they were expecting production start in summer 2026. Rivian shouldn't need anymore batteries for a while. That's a big plant.

https://www.abc15.com/news/business...attery-plant-nears-completion-hiring-ramps-up

 

[UnsungZero_OldTimeAdMan]

Has there been any update on the LG factory in Arizona that will be supplying the R2 batteries? Are they planning to be the only supplier or is Rivian using another battery source until the plant is fully up and running?

Rivian secured enough supply from LG to keep R2 on schedule. LG’s US plant was originally planned to start production “early 2026”, but now “mid to late 2026”.

 

[evguy]

Rivian secured enough supply from LG to keep R2 on schedule. LG’s US plant was originally planned to start production “early 2026”, but now “mid to late 2026”.

Perhaps that's part of the reason the base R2 isn't coming until "late 2027." I suspect it will use LFP batteries to keep costs down, and wasn't the LG US plant supposed to focus on LFP?

 

[UnsungZero_OldTimeAdMan]

Perhaps that's part of the reason the base R2 isn't coming until "late 2027." I suspect it will use LFP batteries to keep costs down, and wasn't the LG US plant supposed to focus on LFP?

Doubt it will be LFP. RJ said they picked the specific 4695 LG (NCMA) cell for energy density, performance and cost. I think the base model will just have fewer cells if the same, instead of having to secure a small order of another type.

 

[tivoboy]

It doesn’t seem like we have much in the way to clearly tangible updates, other than the company reporting that they see 2026 sales INCREASING by 25,000 units, most likely mostly R2 devilries.. which would indicate essentially 1000/week once they start delivering probably end of Q2’26.

Now, having built OEM automotive factories before, and also for companies that move from high $$, low volume to medium $, higher volume production I’ll say I think that the 25K figure is an UNDERESTIMATE, for both markets and industry analysts.. if they haven’t built the system, machines, ppl and process into the manufacturing process at this point to be able to achieve 2X that run rate by EOY‘26, they are doing it wrong.

But I still don’t think we realistically see >45-50K by EOY 26, but probably do get to a 1.5-1.75k weekly production run rate going into 2027.

my .02$.

 

[UnsungZero_OldTimeAdMan]

I have just heard sellable units started production yesterday. These are probably destined for employees.

 

[AlphaSnowbordergirl]

Now, having built OEM automotive factories before, and also for companies that move from high $$, low volume to medium $, higher volume production I’ll say I think that the 25K figure is an UNDERESTIMATE, for both markets and industry analysts.. if they haven’t built the system, machines, ppl and process into the manufacturing process at this point to be able to achieve 2X that run rate by EOY‘26, they are doing it wrong.

I think there are reasons why they are keeping it low. Possibilities could, testing out the car for issues before scaling up because this will be their first high volume car and while the enthusiasts are more likely to forgive mistakes, the general public won't. Increasing a few more service centers and seeing if their service centers do well with the new car. Supplier limitations for particular parts until 2027. Limiting how many vehicles they want out there without lidar. etc. So I wouldn't say they are doing it wrong, just being cautious as it seems Rivian tends to lean towards caution.

 

[NY_Rob]

I have just heard sellable units started production yesterday. These are probably destined for employees.

Kyle should be getting his soon then....

 

[NY_Rob]

I think there are reasons why they are keeping it low. Possibilities could, testing out the car for issues before scaling up because this will be their first high volume car and while the enthusiasts are more likely to forgive mistakes, the general public won't. Increasing a few more service centers and seeing if their service centers do well with the new car. Supplier limitations for particular parts until 2027. Limiting how many vehicles they want out there without lidar. etc. So I wouldn't say they are doing it wrong, just being cautious as it seems Rivian tends to lean towards caution.

So no corner moldings from Home Depot to keep the line running (Tesla joke) ?

 

[tivoboy]

I think there are reasons why they are keeping it low. Possibilities could, testing out the car for issues before scaling up because this will be their first high volume car and while the enthusiasts are more likely to forgive mistakes, the general public won't. Increasing a few more service centers and seeing if their service centers do well with the new car. Supplier limitations for particular parts until 2027. Limiting how many vehicles they want out there without lidar. etc. So I wouldn't say they are doing it wrong, just being cautious as it seems Rivian tends to lean towards caution.

Agree, somewhat.. but we think/know they have already built >200 pre-production test units, for internal testing and industry/influencer/PR testing and shows.. they have probably actually already built another 2-3K at this point (I wonder if someone has a drone fly over of the factory in IN) and a large number of those will probably be going to employees.. with ~ 14K employees, I doubt more than 25% will take a car, that puts it at about 2500 TOPS.. it could be more if they are incented to.

From there, it should be 500/wk, ramping to 750/wk starting pretty soon I would guess. of COURSE they want to get quality high, but at this stage they aren't making design/parts/BOM/vendor changes unless absolutely necessary.. like a vendor can't supply or goes out of business.

I still think we're looking at 2K coming to customers by June, with 2.5-3K July, and maybe 3.5K by Sept onward.. that only puts us at ~ 22K for H2'26, but i could certainly be higher.

 

[UnsungZero_OldTimeAdMan]

Agree, somewhat.. but we think/know they have already built >200 pre-production test units

They built unknown numbers at pilot line in Irvine HQ. For prototype testing and to prototype production line.

Then, at Normal, they built "hundres"more. RJ's words.

I heard from someone with connections, first production units started yesterday.

 

[DuoRivian]

They built unknown numbers at pilot line in Irvine HQ. For prototype testing and to prototype production line.

Then, at Normal, they built "hundres"more. RJ's words.

I heard from someone with connections, first production units started yesterday.

I always thought the by end of first half was conservative and gave them room for some unexpected issues. Makes sense they gave themselves a few months grace. Let’s see how the ramp goes. They had said by the end of the of 2027 they wanted to be at the final run rate which is around 13k amount given the 155k annual capacity at Normal for 2028.

 

[UnsungZero_OldTimeAdMan]

I always thought the by end of first half was conservative and gave them room for some unexpected issues. Makes sense they gave themselves a few months grace. Let’s see how the ramp goes. They had said by the end of the of 2027 they wanted to be at the final run rate which is around 13k amount given the 155k annual capacity at Normal for 2028.

I think their guidance so far is 25k R2s in 2026. And that figure, I speculate, correlates to how many batteries and parts they've already agreed to buy from suppliers, at prices that are agreeable to them—in terms of cost and profit.

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