RIVIAN STOCK

[Craigins]

Ford has 100m shares and Amazon has 180m. While Amazon will probably not sell, Ford probably wants to cash out to fund their own activity.

I don't see why, they'd drive down the price and will be selling at a loss.

Probably better to use the stock for collateral for financing if they need $$ immediately.

Then when the market as a whole recovers, cash out for a profit.

Sponsored

 

[Mike Hunt]

I don't see why, they'd drive down the price and will be selling at a loss.

Probably better to use the stock for collateral for financing if they need $$ immediately.

Then when the market as a whole recovers, cash out for a profit.

Think Machiavelli.

 

[EVTrucking]

When stock hits $10/share I will buy some.

 

[NY_Rob]

^ why buy stock, heck at $10/share... buy the company

 

[mkg3]

I don't see why, they'd drive down the price and will be selling at a loss.

Probably better to use the stock for collateral for financing if they need $$ immediately.

Then when the market as a whole recovers, cash out for a profit.

Ford got in Rivian well before the last round prior to the IPO.

Ford's average price per share is about $12/share - definitely less than the current price. Total investment of $1.2B ($820M in stock and $400M in convertible debt totaling 102M shares). Their Q1 loss report is a function of mark-to-market value.

Collateralized equity is not at the market price. They are discounted for risk purposes and has call price, if the price drops beyond the discounted price. I doubt Ford would want to be caught in that situation, since its a competitor they are trying to eliminate.

 

[Rivian_Hugh_III]

Think Machiavelli.

Tell me your name’s not really Mike Hunt

 

[Mike Hunt]

Tell me your name’s not really Mike Hunt

It’s an ice breaker for sure!

 

[moosehead]

$60 by Q2 earnings in August. Assuming next week goes well.

That's a whole lot of assuming. Hope you're right, but that's also a wishful assumption.

 

[kurtlikevonnegut]

Read a hot take on another (non car focused) forum that declared RIVN would be at $10 by year end and Rivian would be declaring bankruptcy inside 24 months.

It certainly isn't impossible but I really don't understand where people get this idea that Rivian is in a dire cash situation to the point that interst rates directly impact them at the moment. That sort of analysis completely ignores the fact that they are projecting sales this year that will result in approximately $2bn in revenue and likely double that next year.

 

[SANZC02]

Read a hot take on another (non car focused) forum that declared RIVN would be at $10 by year end and Rivian would be declaring bankruptcy inside 24 months.

It certainly isn't impossible but I really don't understand where people get this idea that Rivian is in a dire cash situation to the point that interst rates directly impact them at the moment. That sort of analysis completely ignores the fact that they are projecting sales this year that will result in approximately $2bn in revenue and likely double that next year.

I would be curious who that was and what their background is. Could they go bankrupt, of course, anyone can but they seem to be blind to any real numbers.

Assume they mean 24 months from now, that means they would burn through 18 billion in cash in 30 months, that is a burn rate of 600 million a month. That does not even count revenue. Assume they build 25k, this year and 50k next year with an ASP of 60k (no clue what the EDVs sell for) that would be another 4.5 billion or another 150 million a month.

So essentially that person thinks Rivian will burn through 750 million dollars a month for 30 months and be out of cash.

 

[protamine]

The option chain is still pretty interesting. Not as wild as it was before (my January 2023 $100 calls sold for $10.80), but smart plays can still make a couple bucks a share and bring that cost basis down.

 

[tiltedandsaltyaf]

lock up expiry is Monday - get ready to load up guys

i need to average down these 175 shares i have from ipo

 

[MidnightRivian]

David Faber

@davidfaber

Ford is selling 8m of its Rivian shares through Goldman as insider lockup for stock of once high-flying EV maker expires tomorrow. Ford currently owns 102m shares.

Sources also tell me JP Morgan selling a 13-15m share block for unknown seller.

Both blocks priced at $26.90.

$RIVN

6:13 PM · May 7, 2022·Twitter Web Ap

 

[EVTrucking]

IMO I do not see Rivian stock going above $30 for quite sometime. Seems like the market is headed the wrong way and indicators are that supply issues will get worse.

No Parts = No R1s

 

[moosehead]

David Faber

@davidfaber

Ford is selling 8m of its Rivian shares through Goldman as insider lockup for stock of once high-flying EV maker expires tomorrow. Ford currently owns 102m shares.

Sources also tell me JP Morgan selling a 13-15m share block for unknown seller.

Both blocks priced at $26.90.

$RIVN

6:13 PM · May 7, 2022·Twitter Web Ap

Ouch.

Sponsored