RIVIAN STOCK

[AdamsFan1983]

Yea and Soros doubled his position this week…..

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[Jumacao]

That 7 million sold on Friday, it is not a sell order for next week.

It sold on Friday, but it wasn't disclosed until AH. So the news of the sale hasn't hit the market yet.

For comparison's sake, the news of the first Ford sale hit the market last Monday, but the first sale didn't actually happen until Tuesday. In that case, the news had more of an impact on Rivian's stock than the actual sale.

 

[Lawrence-of-Blaine]

It sold on Friday, but it wasn't disclosed until AH. So the news of the sale hasn't hit the market yet.

For comparison's sake, the news of the first Ford sale hit the market last Monday, but the first sale didn't actually happen until Tuesday. In that case, the news had more of an impact on Rivian's stock than the actual sale.

On the other hand, you could have a lot of retail investors seeing the rising price concurrent with news of Ford selling more, and just conclude that it doesn’t matter.

 

[AllInev]

Rivian founder and CEO RJ Scaringe bought 41,000 shares of company stock worth about $1 million, a securities filing posted Monday afternoon shows.

https://techcrunch.com/2022/05/16/rivian-founder-rj-scaringe-snaps-up-1m-worth-of-ev-makers-stock/

Almost always a good sign when a founder is purchasing.

 

[zipzag]

Defense contractors may be doing better than EV manufacturers in coming years. China is warming up for invasion now.

Who is China invading? Normal Illinois seems pretty far

 

[Craigins]

Who is China invading? Normal Illinois seems pretty far

Taiwan. AKA TSMC (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TSMC) when that ball drops, things are going to be BAD.

 

[Greenwater]

Taiwan. AKA TSMC (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TSMC) when that ball drops, things are going to be BAD.

Yeah, imagine the US and Europe trying to help them at the end of a 3000 mile airplane ride. Ukraine is like practice for Taiwan in terms of world reactions and support for democracies.

 

[kurtlikevonnegut]

Taiwan. AKA TSMC (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TSMC) when that ball drops, things are going to be BAD.

The list of companies who sell products, especially in computing, which are headquartered in Taiwan is daunting to say the least. I'd think the hope would be that they could displace to Japan and/or Australia if it appears an attack is imminent but the disruption to output would be a massive shock to the economy.

I'm sure this was a major factor in the renewed vigor for increasing domestic microchip production as well as battery assembly. I personally don't think an attempt to invade is imminent but I think it becomes increasingly more likely over the next 5 years.

 

[zipzag]

Taiwan. AKA TSMC (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TSMC) when that ball drops, things are going to be BAD.

China can't afford to be embargoed. China can't stop a blockade without a blue water navy. China is not remotely self sufficient in energy or food. China has less agricultural land per person than Saudi Arabia.

They are likely preparing to invade in case the next U.S. administration is permissive of such activities.

 

[St Bernard]

RJ may be “solid” but they need a real CEO. I have said before they need someone who has run a large organization and understands how to communicate. RJ should concentrate on Design and Innovation. They still cannot deliver the RIS.

This was a note I wrote 2 years ago. Now they have no problems delivering but the rest of the note is still an issue.

 

[VSG]

I started reading this thread (from the last post backwards) because it had a new post, but it took several pages before I realized this was from TWO YEARS ago.

All the doom and gloom and warnings of bankruptcy and take over etc. sound exactly what people have been saying recently.

Put into context, all the above seems a little silly, and so does all the current FUD.

Not going to call out ALL the ridiculous predictions above that didn't come true, but here's one just for laughs (from May 2022):

Ford will have more F-150 Lightnings on the road next month than all the R1Ts in existence. IF Rivian can produce 50,000 R1S/R1T in 2023, that to me would be a HUGE win. But, if that's 35,000 R1Ts for the year that might be one month's production in Ford Lightnings.

How did that turn out, two years later, huh? Rivian turned out to be right on track with its predictions, and Ford has stopped making the Lightnings (and still has fewer on the road than R1T ...)

 

[COdogman]

 

[NineElectrics]

I started reading this thread (from the last post backwards) because it had a new post, but it took several pages before I realized this was from TWO YEARS ago.

All the doom and gloom and warnings of bankruptcy and take over etc. sound exactly what people have been saying recently.

Put into context, all the above seems a little silly, and so does all the current FUD.

Not going to call out ALL the ridiculous predictions above that didn't come true, but here's one just for laughs (from May 2022):


How did that turn out, two years later, huh? Rivian turned out to be right on track with its predictions, and Ford has stopped making the Lightnings (and still has fewer on the road than R1T ...)

Ford has stopped making Lightnings? From https://www.theverge.com/2023/12/11/23997632/ford-f150-lightning-production-reduce-ev-demand, Ford has sold 33K Lightnings so far (out of date; I think it’s 37K) and plans to make 1,600 a week in 2024. That’s 83K per year. Did that plan change since December?

EDIT: Found it: https://www.reuters.com/business/au...ps-shipments-2024-f-150-lightning-2024-02-23/. Shipments have stopped due to a quality issue. That's refreshing; Rivian would have just sold them. I don't know if they stopped making them, though.

 

[VSG]

Yeah my comment was a little flippant. I was trying to contrast with the prediction that "35,000 R1Ts for the year that might be (equal to) one month's production in Ford Lightnings"

Ford has only made about 40k Lightnings TOTAL, in two years. Rivian made more R1 than that last year alone, and although we don't know the exact number of R1T/R1S/EDV, it's likely that Rivian has also made about 30k-40k R1T.

The Ford stop is temporary, so they say, but it's been like that since Feb 9, more than two weeks ago, with no end in sight.

Ford cut their 2024 guidance in half in December, and now essentially hasn't produced any yet this year. Total production for the past two years combined is about 40k. So to think they're going to make twice that many in the next 10 months (83k) is not realistic.

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