New Delivery Delay Confirmed - My R1T Delivery Pushed From October to end of February, 2022.

[Whmorken]

I think Rivian will actually get to a 4000-5000 a month rate by end of 2022 which allows nearly all preorders to be filled for several reasons.
a) they need to demonstrate to the market that they can make a significant number of cars to support a $100 billion valuation
b) they need some revenue coming in otherwise the $12 billion they raised will not cover many years of multi billion dollars losses and a new factory
c) they need to prevent preorder holders wandering off to Ford or others in 2023 if their orders are not filled
d) competition hits up in both the seven seater SUV market and the truck market and they need to capitalize on their head start
e) their factory at 50000 will only be running at 33% capacity with an expansion likely done (if a new factory can be built in 12-18 months how long does a small expansion take) and this is financially ruinous if it took TWO years to get to this rate.

For all the above reasons I expect a more rapid ramp up. If they are running at 600 in December then moving into the thousands a month should not be a huge jump. People have mentioned hiring and that is true, but they have quiet a few staff already and should easily be able to run a shift a day and then move to two a day (seven days a week).
I would add two other items to consider, yes there are supply chain issues but Rivian production is minimally in the perspective of the auto industry so getting 100000 seats, 200000 tires etc should not be a big ask for 50000 vehicles. Also as they can more brand aware orders will come in next year and if existing preorders are not filled until 2023 then new orders will be 2024 and that is going to hit future ordering. People will wait a few months but not 24 months.
Anyway just a few thoughts and I am hopefully for a q4 2022 order fulfillment. Will be interested in q1 ramp up figures.

Produce or die is great motivation. Remember Elon “sleeping” at night on the production line “hell” in July, 2018? RJ may eat and sleep on the line! Believe it, with RJ there, barring some unforeseeable catastrophe, the line will move.

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[Scoiatael]

I think Rivian will actually get to a 4000-5000 a month rate by end of 2022 which allows nearly all preorders to be filled for several reasons.
a) they need to demonstrate to the market that they can make a significant number of cars to support a $100 billion valuation
b) they need some revenue coming in otherwise the $12 billion they raised will not cover many years of multi billion dollars losses and a new factory
c) they need to prevent preorder holders wandering off to Ford or others in 2023 if their orders are not filled
d) competition hits up in both the seven seater SUV market and the truck market and they need to capitalize on their head start
e) their factory at 50000 will only be running at 33% capacity with an expansion likely done (if a new factory can be built in 12-18 months how long does a small expansion take) and this is financially ruinous if it took TWO years to get to this rate.

For all the above reasons I expect a more rapid ramp up. If they are running at 600 in December then moving into the thousands a month should not be a huge jump. People have mentioned hiring and that is true, but they have quiet a few staff already and should easily be able to run a shift a day and then move to two a day (seven days a week).
I would add two other items to consider, yes there are supply chain issues but Rivian production is minimally in the perspective of the auto industry so getting 100000 seats, 200000 tires etc should not be a big ask for 50000 vehicles. Also as they can more brand aware orders will come in next year and if existing preorders are not filled until 2023 then new orders will be 2024 and that is going to hit future ordering. People will wait a few months but not 24 months.
Anyway just a few thoughts and I am hopefully for a q4 2022 order fulfillment. Will be interested in q1 ramp up figures.

Very optimistic, but it really depends on what the issues currently are. Do the Quality Control issues require human training or is it something one of the robots aren't doing correctly for example. Also we don't know what supply chain issues there are. Could just be chips, could be batteries. Even though Rivian doesn't need as much as the big automakers, they still have to wait in line.

 

[Guy]

Very optimistic, but it really depends on what the issues currently are. Do the Quality Control issues require human training or is it something one of the robots aren't doing correctly for example. Also we don't know what supply chain issues there are. Could just be chips, could be batteries. Even though Rivian doesn't need as much as the big automakers, they still have to wait in line.

I can see how it is optimistic and you make some good points but remember they have to deliver, they are first to market but the competition heats up within two years. They are using an existing factory and the basic design has been known for three years so they have had time to optimize for manufacturing and stockpiling some parts. In addition they are starting later than planned.

 

[Whmorken]

Very optimistic, but it really depends on what the issues currently are. Do the Quality Control issues require human training or is it something one of the robots aren't doing correctly for example. Also we don't know what supply chain issues there are. Could just be chips, could be batteries. Even though Rivian doesn't need as much as the big automakers, they still have to wait in line.

All of the above, all, and much, much, more, that must be overcome to make the line go; and with time/budget/service/charging/investors/customers and competition each pressing hard. Go Rivian! You can do it — must do it.

 

[RivianXpress]

I was told at the Sonoma event that all employee deliveries (R1T) have ended.

 

[Shzeph]

I was told at the Sonoma event that all employee deliveries have ended.

If the employee was correct, then I’m about 7.6529% more optimistic about my chances of getting my November delivery

 

[GaryL]

I was told at the Sonoma event that all employee deliveries have ended.

400 give or take to employee

 

[mwexler2]

400 give or take to employee

Where did you get the 400 number. If that is true and if they also make their 1000 deliveries by end of year that means that 600 “third party” deliveries by the end of year. Also, if they really delivered 400 already, it seems plausible to do 600 more by EOY.

 

[EVTrucking]

The endless speculation, theories and making shit up continues unabated!!

Now that all the excitement of the IPO is over it seems clear to me to accept the fact that my R1T (3/22/21) will be ready when it is ready. I am content with that.

Sometime in December of this year we will take delivery of a MME. That will get us well underway to no more ICE.

I have only been waiting for the R1T for (7) months and frankly I am wore out trying make sense of the situation. I want a R1T so I will wait.

 

[atlastracer]

I was told at the Sonoma event that all employee deliveries have ended.

Until the R1S starts shipping at least... Then there will be a number of employee deliveries for those too in order to ensure the final product is up to par.

 

[ja_kub_sz]

Pre-Order 11/27/18 Max Pack R1T (every option)

Spoke to CS yesterday.

They said I am still on target for delivery in January.

I don't know if I believe them... but the early Pre-Order customers Rivian is holding firm to their timelines... For now ?

I have now since dropped the camp kitchen.

 

[St Bernard]

Pre-Order 11/27/18 Max Pack R1T (every option)

Spoke to CS yesterday.

They said I am still on target for delivery in January.

I don't know if I believe them... but the early Pre-Order customers Rivian is holding firm to their timelines... For now ?

I have now since dropped the camp kitchen.

2023or 2022?
.

 

[JEV]

Pre-Order 11/27/18 Max Pack R1T (every option)

Spoke to CS yesterday.

They said I am still on target for delivery in January.

I don't know if I believe them... but the early Pre-Order customers Rivian is holding firm to their timelines... For now ?

I have now since dropped the camp kitchen.

Pre-order 11-26-2018 R1T LE, 20"AT, LG, FE and I'm still waiting to hear from my guide. I'm in central Illinois, so one would think I would be near the front of the line. I really have no idea when I'll get my truck.

 

[LoneStar]

Pre-order 11-26-2018 R1T LE, 20"AT, LG, FE and I'm still waiting to hear from my guide. I'm in central Illinois, so one would think I would be near the front of the line. I really have no idea when I'll get my truck.

Have you engaged with CS for an explanation? You should have been part of the earliest events held at the factory..

 

[Tommy]

Pre-order 11-26-2018 R1T LE, 20"AT, LG, FE and I'm still waiting to hear from my guide. I'm in central Illinois, so one would think I would be near the front of the line. I really have no idea when I'll get my truck.

Same. Also an 11/26/2018 R1T LE, 20"AT, LG, but BM interior. My delivery is in GA which is not an early delivery area, but the initial contact from my guide was in JUL 21. Delivery is currently estimated prior to the end of Jan 22. By the "convention wisdom" standards, you -should- have a guide by now, unless the FG interior is the road block. Don't know. Just speculating. Would be interesting to find out from CS if interior choice is the deciding factor. ?

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