January/Feb delivery windows

[Guy]

I think people are way underestimating the number of employees out of work due to covid. Our local Office Depot where my daughter works is having to close at 6pm each night instead of the usual 8pm due to so many employees out either sick or quarantine. All businesses are in the same boat right now. I would expect yet more delays.

I think it depends where you are and some people over estimate COVID’s impact at this time.

someone on here said there were around 800000 positive test results a day so let’s say 5 million a week. Even if all were workers that equates to less than 5% of the workforce (estimated at around 130 million people). Even if out of action for ten days (CDC says five days) that is still no more than 10% of the workforce out.
another data point is car production in the US is at least 80% of what it was in 2019 (14 million vs 17.5 million).

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[SeaGeo]

I think it depends where you are and some people over estimate COVID’s impact at this time.

someone on here said there were around 800000 positive test results a day so let’s say 5 million a week. Even if all were workers that equates to less than 5% of the workforce (estimated at around 130 million people). Even if out of action for ten days (CDC says five days) that is still no more than 10% of the workforce out.
another data point is car production in the US is at least 80% of what it was in 2019 (14 million vs 17.5 million).

There's probably (at least) about 5x the cases than those that are testing positive. This is going to vary a lot by region. Assuming a 5 ot 10 day infection period, we're at about 10% of the population having covid at any given time as of about a week ago.

 

[Guy]

There's probably (at least) about 5x the cases than those that are testing positive. This is going to vary a lot by region. Assuming a 5 ot 10 day infection period, we're at about 10% of the population having covid at any given time as of about a week ago.

I seriously doubt 30 million people have COVID each week. Even if true most are vaccinated and a lot won’t show many of any symptoms. Life is continuing fairly well in terms of operations not withstanding some supply chain issues.

 

[SeaGeo]

I seriously doubt 30 million people have cocos each week. Even if true most are vaccinated and a lot won’t show many of any symptoms. Life is continuing fairly well in terms of operations not withstanding some supply chain issues.

Trevor (linked above) is about as far from a random human on the subject as you can get. His estimate is a bit more conservative than a few others I've seen.

 

[Guy]

Trevor (linked above) is about as far from a random human on the subject as you can get. His estimate is a bit more conservative than a few others I've seen.

Thanks, so assuming a ten day quarantine (conservative now) that is still only 2% impacted. Even with your multiplier of five that is 10% of the workforce at most and assume all have symptoms (which we know is not true). That leaves 90+% of the workforce and this is demonstrated by life continuing on fairly normally (schools, trash collection, grocery stores etc continuing).
This does eeem a little tangentially since even with some reduction of the workforce at Normal Rivian should still be able to build the 500 or so a month expected at this stage. It also doesn’t answer why very few people, apparently, on this site with this window have been contacted with six weeks to go to the end of the window.

 

[SeaGeo]

Thanks, so assuming a ten day quarantine (conservative now) that is still only 2% impacted. Even with your multiplier of five that is 10% of the workforce at most and assume all have symptoms (which we know is not true). That leaves 90+% of the workforce and this is demonstrated by life continuing on fairly normally (schools, trash collection, grocery stores etc continuing).
This does eeem a little tangentially since even with some reduction of the workforce at Normal Rivian should still be able to build the 500 or so a month expected at this stage. It also doesn’t answer why very few people, apparently, on this site with this window have been contacted with six weeks to go to the end of the window.

It's 10% impacted.

Either way, I wasn't disagreeing with you that 80%+ of most workforces are working. However, it wouldn't surprise me at all of a single business were to get hit by a much larger percentage at once as a cluster.

Very few people on this site had Jan/Feb delivery windows. I've seen a few non-employee deliveries pop up lately. Just give it time, we are two weeks into a two month window, and there definitely seemed to be employees getting notified at the last minute in December.

 

[SANZC02]

I seriously doubt 30 million people have COVID each week. Even if true most are vaccinated and a lot won’t show many of any symptoms. Life is continuing fairly well in terms of operations not withstanding some supply chain issues.

The problem is it is across the board for industries and compounded by the tight labor markets.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/covid-omicron-workers-out-sick/

It is going to take time to get back to some level of normalcy or adjust expectation that we are in what is the new normal.

 

[Guy]

The problem is it is across the board for industries and compounded by the tight labor markets.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/covid-omicron-workers-out-sick/

It is going to take time to get back to some level of normalcy or adjust expectation that we are in what is the new normal.

Agreed getting back to “normal” will take time my point is that we are operating at a reasonably high level now with day today life for most people not seriously impacted.
The March/April window had many more
people in, so we will know within the next couple of months how things are really going, which includes the few weeks notice Rivian is hopefully providing real customers .

 

[Guy]

It's 10% impacted.

Either way, I wasn't disagreeing with you that 80%+ of most workforces are working. However, it wouldn't surprise me at all of a single business were to get hit by a much larger percentage at once as a cluster.

Very few people on this site had Jan/Feb delivery windows. I've seen a few non-employee deliveries pop up lately. Just give it time, we are two weeks into a two month window, and there definitely seemed to be employees getting notified at the last minute in December.

I like most of your comments on here but I don’t know how you can so definitively state that it is five times more when it is by definition unknown since those extra people didn’t take tests. Anyway let’s focus back on truck and SUV delivery!

 

[SeaGeo]

I like most of your comments on here but I don’t know how you can so definitively state that it is five times more when it is by definition unknown since those extra people didn’t take tests. Anyway let’s focus back on truck and SUV delivery!

Read through Trevor's thread. Its primarily based on historical underreported g in the U.S. based on seroprevalence testing, and being informed by trends in ongoing ongoing studies to see how much London has been underreported over tike. Note, I didn't say definitively, but most signs suggest we must positive cases by several times, which Trevor discusses. Just relying on the data that's available and SMEs. Which, when that fits what I observe locally, gives me a reasonable degree of confidence. For example, my spouse manages a large group of people, and most of the people that are calling out sick with symptoms are not getting tested. She's been dealing with roughly 10% of her workforce being out at any given time for most of the month.

 

[SANZC02]

Read through Trevor's thread. Its primarily based on historical underreported g in the U.S. based on seroprevalence testing, and being informed by trends in ongoing ongoing studies to see how much London has been underreported over tike. Note, I didn't say definitively, but most signs suggest we must positive cases by several times, which Trevor discusses. Just relying on the data that's available and SMEs. Which, when that fits what I observe locally, gives me a reasonable degree of confidence. For example, my spouse manages a large group of people, and most of the people that are calling out sick with symptoms are not getting tested. She's been dealing with roughly 10% of her workforce being out at any given time for most of the month.

There are also people testing at home that do not report the positive test result, I know of at least 3 people this month that fall into this category.

 

[crashmtb]

From data at my workplace (3000+ R&D facility) and my kids school district and how many teachers are out, along with data from the Chicago teachers strike a figure of 10-15% of staff being out has been quoted. This seems a reasonable ballpark estimate. Actual impact seems less since schools are open, trash is being picked up, mail delivered each day so life is largely on track. That is why I don’t think any COVID absences at Normal should impact production, as opposed to actual supply chain shortages of parts which obviously would impact production..

So if Covid knocks out an entire shift of a department in assembly… no impact on production?

 

[crashmtb]

There are also people testing at home that do not report the positive test result, I know of at least 3 people this month that fall into this category.

Here they eliminated the PCR testing backlog by only doing PCR tests if you work in healthcare, a nursing home, or education. Otherwise you are given rapid tests, and told to isolate. Rapid test results are not recorded, because there is no mechanism.

 

[Gearhead500]

So if Covid knocks out an entire shift of a department in assembly… no impact on production?

The number of times we shut down facilities for guys who are HOURLY workers… SMFH
I heart these people.

 

[Guy]

So if Covid knocks out an entire shift of a department in assembly… no impact on production?

I would have thought the limit on production currently would be a mix of parts shortages and experience on the line. They have a lot of employees (2000 had been mentioned, obviously not all line workers) and are running at around 500 or so vehicles a month, which equates to c. 25 a day or 3 an hour (single shift). Not sure it needs that many staff to operate the line at the speed. So yes I think they can cope with 10% of their workforce being out at one time. As has been noted this is a short term spike, wasn’t as much of an issue in November and likely won’t be in March.
COVID is not going knock an entire shift out, as discussed above we are talking about 10% not 100%. Anyway time will tell since other manufacturers seem to be able to cope.

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