Has anyone on this forum received a confirmed delivery date?

[jjwolf120]

An example of the slowness is that three years after showing the vehicles (same interior and exterior design and skateboard structure) they are finally making some in volume.

Since their plan was to start producing vehicles roughly two years after debuting the prototypes and a pandemic happened in the second year, I don't think you can fault them for not getting to production earlier. They are a completely new company making a completely new vehicle in the middle of a pandemic, I think we can all cut them some slack on the how quickly they got to production. The only issue, for me, is that they could have communicated better.

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[jjswan33]

I think people are underestimating the actual impact Covid is having.

Walk around the stores and look at all of the empty shelf space.

I had solar installed this year, what normally would be a 2 month process took almost 8 months to complete. If I count when the electric company coming out for the final inspection almost 10 months as I had the PTO from the electric company 2 months before they did the final inspection of the panel upgrade (I did have the final city inspection before the PTO).

Did you use Tesla for solar?

My project came together in ~3mo and most of the delay was due to the study the power co (PGE) had to do in order to approve my net metering proposal.

 

[SANZC02]

Did you use Tesla for solar?

My project came together in ~3mo and most of the delay was due to the study the power co (PGE) had to do in order to approve my net metering proposal.

No I used REC panels and Enphase inverters. I had to have the panel upgraded as well as I only had a 100 amp service. I had time added in all phases, a lot of it was waiting on permits and inspections. They were having issues with getting teams together.

Workmanship was great and I was very happy with the installation and performance once done just took a long time.

 

[jjswan33]

No I used REC panels and Enphase inverters. I had to have the panel upgraded as well as I only had a 100 amp service. I had time added in all phases, a lot of it was waiting on permits and inspections. They were having issues with getting teams together.

Workmanship was great and I was very happy with the installation and performance once done just took a long time.

Nice. I know Tesla will take a little longer based on what Ive read and partially on experience, why I asked.

Just had a 8kw system installed in July, used a local Oregon company and no upgrades needed, Silfab panels and Enphase inverters. Love it so far, producing more power than I’m using.

 

[jerseyff]

Are you getting an R1T or R1S? I am guessing no estimate yet for R1S when they haven't even started building.

LE R1T Launch Green.

 

[ironpig]

I understand the pandemic has had an impact. I am having a backup generator installed and it will be three months extra. However all companies have this and Lucid (in a new factory) seems to be doing well. As mentioned communication is not impacted by the pandemic. They could have last month said R1T LE holders will be Q1 not say October then November and now next year. The pandemic has caused some delay but new factories (Mazdas in Alabama for example) and new cars are being rolled out. Rivian has already had a six month delay. They have been slow even pre pandemic. An example of the slowness is that three years after showing the vehicles (same interior and exterior design and skateboard structure) they are finally making some in volume.

A backup generator and a brand new 7000 pound Electric truck with 4 electric motors that uses hundreds of chips that are in short supply are 2 very different things.

They are not going to be delivering trucks in volume for a long time. It will be a miracle if there are any trucks delivered to non-employees in 2021. Unless you have a launch edition, it's reasonable to expect that your delivery is going to be late next year or 2023. That's just the facts of the supply chain situation.

 

[Guy]

A backup generator and a brand new 7000 pound Electric truck with 4 electric motors that uses hundreds of chips that are in short supply are 2 very different things.

They are not going to be delivering trucks in volume for a long time. It will be a miracle if there are any trucks delivered to non-employees in 2021. Unless you have a launch edition, it's reasonable to expect that your delivery is going to be late next year or 2023. That's just the facts of the supply chain situation.

They are different but manufacturers are man against to make millions of vehicles a year still. Somehow Lucid managed to build a new factory (unlike Rivian) and start manufacturing sooner than Rivian. Rivian have done a great job with the product but it is a few years old now and missing things like 800V and V2H or V2V which competitors like Ford and Hyundai are previewing.
If you think making say 15000 R1S and 10000 vans is sufficient next year then they will have a very bad time since utilizing 16% of their factory is poor. There would be no need for the expansion at Normal or a rush to build a second factory. I don’t see the supply chain issues delaying for multiple years their ability to grow - it is not stopping anyone else.

 

[ironpig]

They are different but manufacturers are man against to make millions of vehicles a year still. Somehow Lucid managed to build a new factory (unlike Rivian) and start manufacturing sooner than Rivian. Rivian have done a great job with the product but it is a few years old now and missing things like 800V and V2H or V2V which competitors like Ford and Hyundai are previewing.
If you think making say 15000 R1S and 10000 vans is sufficient next year then they will have a very bad time since utilizing 16% of their factory is poor. There would be no need for the expansion at Normal or a rush to build a second factory. I don’t see the supply chain issues delaying for multiple years their ability to grow - it is not stopping anyone else.

I understand you are mad because Rivian is delayed, but you just don't seem to understand how car manufacturing works. You are oversimplifying a process to justify your desires.

Literally EVERY car maker has been affected by the chip shortage. Your assertion that you think others are doing better is unfounded. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/23/business/auto-semiconductors-general-motors-mercedes.html

Rivian and Lucid have had similar numbers of cars roll off the assembly line - the difference is Rivian is giving them to employees first (for feedback) and Lucid is giving a handful of cars to consumers.

 

[Guy]

I understand you are mad because Rivian is delayed, but you just don't seem to understand how car manufacturing works. You are oversimplifying a process to justify your desires.

Literally EVERY car maker has been affected by the chip shortage. Your assertion that you think others are doing better is unfounded. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/23/business/auto-semiconductors-general-motors-mercedes.html

Rivian and Lucid have had similar numbers of cars roll off the assembly line - the difference is Rivian is giving them to employees first (for feedback) and Lucid is giving a handful of cars to consumers.

Lets try this again. It will be what but will be and the pandemic has had an impact. Lucid is a smaller company (many less employees), been around less time and had to build a factory (unlike Rivian). So in that comparison alone Rivian has been slow. All manufacturers have had some delays, but have managed to continue to build millions of vehicles. Therefore is it much to be spect that after a one year delay for a vehicle shown three years ago to expect a reasonable volume in 2022 (which will then be four years later). I don’t think so. Why would they expand Normal or look to build a new factory in the south (which come online around Q4 2023) unless they expected their existing 150k capacity to be filled. If you think they will only make say 15k R1S and 10k EDVs next year then that is disappointing and very bad for their finances.
Another example of their relative slowness is around hubs and service centers, which are not that impacted by the pandemic. They expected to be selling in volume earlier this year and yet we have one hub open and no service centers. We may be “lucky” and have four service centers open by the end of the year (one in CA, Denver, Phoenix and NYC) but that is slow. Their strategy of wanting to spend inordinate amounts of time and money renovating old buildings doesn’t make business sense. Sure, have at least one iconic hub like Apple has store in NYC, but no need for all of them to be like this. But maybe it doesn’t matter because if it takes them over two years to build 50k R1S then they don’t need any new business (let alone international) for a very long time.

 

[Dbeglor]

Let stray this again. It will be what but will be and the pandemic has had an impact. Lucid is a smaller company (many less employees), been around less time and had to build a factory (unlike Rivian). So in that comparison alone Rivian has been slow. All manufacturers have had some delays, but have managed to continue to build millions of vehicles. Therefore is it much to be spect that after a one year delay for a vehicle shown three years ago to expect a reasonable volume in 2022 (which will then be four years later). I don’t think so. Why would they expand Normal or look to build a new factory in the south (which come online around Q4 2023) unless they expected their existing 150k capacity to be filled. If you think they will only make say 15k R1S and 10k EDVs next year then that is disappointing and very bad for their finances.
Another example of their relative slowness is around hubs and service centers, which are not that impacted by the pandemic. They expected to be selling in volume earlier this year and yet we have one hub open and no service centers. We may be “lucky” and have four service centers open by the end of the year (one in CA, Denver, Phoenix and NYC) but that is slow. Their strategy of wanting to spend inordinate amounts of time and money renovating old buildings doesn’t make business sense. Sure, have at least one iconic hub like Apple has store in NYC, but no need for all of them to be like this. But maybe it doesn’t matter because if it takes them over two years to build 50k R1S then they don’t need any new business (let alone international) for a very long time.

Sometimes you should just listen to what others are saying, and when it contradicts your beliefs, reevaluate your belief to consider whether it is flawed.

1. Lucid's factory is orders of magnitude smaller than Rivian's, as in like 5x smaller in terms of annual production capacity. I don't even know whether they built it faster than Rivian, but it doesn't really matter because it's a false comparison.
2. Rivian would tell you that it would have been faster/easier to build a factory of equal size from scratch than to retrofit one that had been sitting vacant. Case in point, I can build a house from scratch in 12 months but it takes 6+ months to renovate a kitchen. That's why their future ones will be ground up. They likely did it because it was perhaps more cost effective, and they didn't need speed based on where they were in R&D and expected timing for launch. Also from a risk management standpoint, if the world blew up, they could walk away and sell it, whereas new construction you're committed to the whole thing once you sign a GC contract and start.
3. They are expanding Normal because at current capacity they will be supply constrained at the end of 2023 when it is expected to be running at full capacity on an annualized run rate basis. Therefore, they need to expand capacity to meet expected higher demand (which doesn't happen overnight). For the same reason, they need additional factory capacity to launch additional models which are critical to the business actually surviving (Normal will only make R1 S/T and the EDV) and to expand internationally.
4. Hubs/Service centers are absolutely impacted by the pandemic. When people talk about supply chain disruptions (which also includes labor by the way), they aren't just talking about automotive parts. It's everything.
5. It could go the other way around, for all we know, delays with Hubs/Service Centers were one of the causes of the delay in production. So, it's not as simple as just saying, why aren't they open if they planned to be selling vehicles already.

 

[Inkedsphynx]

I love reading everyone prognosticating about the 'limited' impacts of COVID and supply chain issues. I've recently sold my house and all my furniture, only to discover that almost EVERYTHING I could buy is a 6+ month wait. Difficulty staffing at the manufacturing facilities. Difficulty staffing transportation. Lack of available cargo containers (I was told the other day by a delivery guy that rates on cargo containers are 5x what they were pre-pandemic). Scheduling a professional service of any kind right now (electrician, plumber, etc) is orders of magnitude delayed compared to the past.

The pandemic has impacted more than simply material goods. It has impacted the labor force, which then impacts material goods. Anyone saying things like 'Service centers are not impacted by the pandemic' is simply sticking their head in the sand and completely oblivious to the ongoing effects of the COVID pandemic. Go down to Ikea and marvel at the empty shelves and how 80+% of the items on the floor have a sticker that says 'Currently unavailable'. That's not because there's a shortage of wood (there is, but that's not the only reason, and why is there a shortage of lumber? Not because COVID made trees stop growing. Because there is a shortage of people to chop the bastards down, get it to the mill, mill it, ship it, and stock it). It's because even after they get something built, it still has to get loaded on a truck by a human, then driven to a port by a human, then put on a ship by a human, then shipped across the pond by a human, then unloaded by a human, then driven to the store by a human, then put on a shelf by a human, all so a human can check you out and take your money, at which point you're probably trying to schedule (you guessed it, a human) to deliver it to your home.

 

[Zoidz]

Sometimes you should just listen to what others are saying, and when it contradicts your beliefs, reevaluate your belief to consider whether it is flawed.

1. Lucid's factory is orders of magnitude smaller than Rivian's, as in like 5x smaller in terms of annual production capacity. I don't even know whether they built it faster than Rivian, but it doesn't really matter because it's a false comparison.
2. Rivian would tell you that it would have been faster/easier to build a factory of equal size from scratch than to retrofit one that had been sitting vacant. Case in point, I can build a house from scratch in 12 months but it takes 6+ months to renovate a kitchen. That's why their future ones will be ground up. They likely did it because it was perhaps more cost effective, and they didn't need speed based on where they were in R&D and expected timing for launch. Also from a risk management standpoint, if the world blew up, they could walk away and sell it, whereas new construction you're committed to the whole thing once you sign a GC contract and start.
3. They are expanding Normal because at current capacity they will be supply constrained at the end of 2023 when it is expected to be running at full capacity on an annualized run rate basis. Therefore, they need to expand capacity to meet expected higher demand (which doesn't happen overnight). For the same reason, they need additional factory capacity to launch additional models which are critical to the business actually surviving (Normal will only make R1 S/T and the EDV) and to expand internationally.
4. Hubs/Service centers are absolutely impacted by the pandemic. When people talk about supply chain disruptions (which also includes labor by the way), they aren't just talking about automotive parts. It's everything.
5. It could go the other way around, for all we know, delays with Hubs/Service Centers were one of the causes of the delay in production. So, it's not as simple as just saying, why aren't they open if they planned to be selling vehicles already.

Well said. You get it. Others don't, and won't.

 

[Guy]

Sometimes you should just listen to what others are saying, and when it contradicts your beliefs, reevaluate your belief to consider whether it is flawed.

1. Lucid's factory is orders of magnitude smaller than Rivian's, as in like 5x smaller in terms of annual production capacity. I don't even know whether they built it faster than Rivian, but it doesn't really matter because it's a false comparison.
2. Rivian would tell you that it would have been faster/easier to build a factory of equal size from scratch than to retrofit one that had been sitting vacant. Case in point, I can build a house from scratch in 12 months but it takes 6+ months to renovate a kitchen. That's why their future ones will be ground up. They likely did it because it was perhaps more cost effective, and they didn't need speed based on where they were in R&D and expected timing for launch. Also from a risk management standpoint, if the world blew up, they could walk away and sell it, whereas new construction you're committed to the whole thing once you sign a GC contract and start.
3. They are expanding Normal because at current capacity they will be supply constrained at the end of 2023 when it is expected to be running at full capacity on an annualized run rate basis. Therefore, they need to expand capacity to meet expected higher demand (which doesn't happen overnight). For the same reason, they need additional factory capacity to launch additional models which are critical to the business actually surviving (Normal will only make R1 S/T and the EDV) and to expand internationally.
4. Hubs/Service centers are absolutely impacted by the pandemic. When people talk about supply chain disruptions (which also includes labor by the way), they aren't just talking about automotive parts. It's everything.
5. It could go the other way around, for all we know, delays with Hubs/Service Centers were one of the causes of the delay in production. So, it's not as simple as just saying, why aren't they open if they planned to be selling vehicles already.

You make some good points and we all want Rivian to succeed. I agree the Lucid factory has a smaller annual capacity. The original argument was that some people thought Rivian would take multiple years to get to even 40k a year. Normal is being expanded because they do expect within two years (maybe sooner) to get to their annual run rate which is at least 10k per month of R1s (125k a year plus 75k max of the EDV as per the S1). so if they expect to be at 10k by end 2023/early 2024 you would expect a reasonable run rate before then and 50k total units over two years is generous.
retrofitting does take time but is vastly cheaper than a new factory and more environmentally friendly. A new factory is easily a $1b cost, whereas Normal was bought for $16 million plus some equipment. If it was such a bad deal then they shouldn't have done it, but I still think it was a good choice.

I agree the hubs will be impacted by labour, but choosing overly elaborate refits, like the old cinema in some coastal Californian town adds to the problem. Whereas leasing a space at say the King of Prussia Mallon suburban Philadelphia gets you to 5 million people at limited cost and time. If it is good enough for Tesla, Apple, Gucci and various expensive Swiss watch brands then I believe it is good enough for Rivian.

I am listening to others, just as I hope you are, and take some of the pints made. I also highlight facts to support a quicker ramp rate. At the end of the day we are arguing over say 15k or 35k made next year (plus EDVs) and in a world making 60+ million vehicles including 12 million in the US (including over half a million EVs domestically) annually then 20k extra doesn’t seem very many.
I would like to see clearer communication on deliveries, and status of hubs/service centers and RAN. That communication is not impacted by the pandemic which everyone else is working through as life does continue, even at my company which is a multinational drug manufacturer (somehow we have managed).

 

[Guy]

I love reading everyone prognosticating about the 'limited' impacts of COVID and supply chain issues. I've recently sold my house and all my furniture, only to discover that almost EVERYTHING I could buy is a 6+ month wait. Difficulty staffing at the manufacturing facilities. Difficulty staffing transportation. Lack of available cargo containers (I was told the other day by a delivery guy that rates on cargo containers are 5x what they were pre-pandemic). Scheduling a professional service of any kind right now (electrician, plumber, etc) is orders of magnitude delayed compared to the past.

The pandemic has impacted more than simply material goods. It has impacted the labor force, which then impacts material goods. Anyone saying things like 'Service centers are not impacted by the pandemic' is simply sticking their head in the sand and completely oblivious to the ongoing effects of the COVID pandemic. Go down to Ikea and marvel at the empty shelves and how 80+% of the items on the floor have a sticker that says 'Currently unavailable'. That's not because there's a shortage of wood (there is, but that's not the only reason, and why is there a shortage of lumber? Not because COVID made trees stop growing. Because there is a shortage of people to chop the bastards down, get it to the mill, mill it, ship it, and stock it). It's because even after they get something built, it still has to get loaded on a truck by a human, then driven to a port by a human, then put on a ship by a human, then shipped across the pond by a human, then unloaded by a human, then driven to the store by a human, then put on a shelf by a human, all so a human can check you out and take your money, at which point you're probably trying to schedule (you guessed it, a human) to deliver it to your home.

Funny you mention IKEA.I was their yesterday with my kids and it was very well stocked. Sure there are some shortages but you make it sound apocalyptic with 80% bare shelves. Try les than10%. Yes the workforce is a little smaller, but we are talking 2-3% from the Government labour force survey post vs pre pandemic. Apple seem to be able to roll out a new phone each year (2 monto delay last year, no delay this year) and make 40+ million, as well as update their Macs.
I love reading people thinking Rivian has uniquely been worse hit than other auto companies.

 

[Inkedsphynx]

Funny you mention IKEA.I was their yesterday with my kids and it was very well stocked. Sure there are some shortages but you make it sound apocalyptic with 80% bare shelves. Try les than10%. Yes the workforce is a little smaller, but we are talking 2-3% from the Government labour force survey post vs pre pandemic. Apple seem to be able to roll out a new phone each year (2 monto delay last year, no delay this year) and make 40+ million, as well as update their Macs.
I love reading about people making excuses and thinking the world is about to end when GDP is up and Most things are functioning as normal (food, electrical, gas and water supply, gas for the car etc).

I was at my local Ikea this last weekend and as I stated (which you clearly didn't read) 80+% of the *items on the floor* were labeled as 'Currently Unavailable'. The shelves where you could just grab things and go were also incredibly bare compared to usual Ikea standards.

Perhaps you've never been involved in supply chain mechanics. Apple has sourced their materials years in advance and at any given time are installing chips in phones that they received WELL before the actual assembly took place. They're also, literally, one of the biggest companies in the world with dedicated third-party integrated supply chains. They can afford to throw 5x as much at a cargo container and just pass it onto the consumer, because Apple diehards will pay nearly any price for their shiny new phone.

You're right, the *absolute necessities* in the supply chain are functioning as normal, because they've been prioritized. I would love a solid explanation for how GDP is any indicator of the issues being highlighted, especially given that GDP also incorporates consumer spending, which is up and is a direct contributing factor to shortages when the shortages are already in existence.

I'll take my experience of completely replacing literally everything I own that wasn't a personal affect over the last month. It's been a complete shitshow. I can't even write this message from the comfy chair I ordered 2 motnhs ago that is currently scheduled to be delivered in June. Luckily, I can write it from the couch I ordered by asking the sales staff "What do you have that's in stock? Ok, I'll take that", because the couch I wanted wouldn't deliver until *August* of *2022*.

I'm pretty sure any cursory google search would show you that I'm not the only one experiencing these issues. Go walk into a furniture store and talk to the sales staff. Go try to schedule an electrician. Try to go buy more than 2 1-gallon containers of water per customer, or more than 1 pack of toilet paper per customer. :eyeroll:

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