Can Rivian can start R2 production in Normal, IL in September?

[SANZC02]

I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express Last night so...

FWIW I think they are prudent to prove they can make a profit on the more expensive R1 line before they start losing money on a new product.

They seem to feel pretty confident they will be there in Q4. They have the Q2 improvements and should be done with the LCNRV write downs.

Time will tell.

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[Golfer04]

I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express Last night so...

FWIW I think they are prudent to prove they can make a profit on the more expensive R1 line before they start losing money on a new product.

Quality control is killing them on the R1 products. The warranty return rate was running over 60 percent (return for warranty within 60 days of sale) when normal is single digits. A new model rushed out the door won't fix that. Plus I'm not sure the anticipated margins per vehicle on the R2 are great. Cheaper vehicles generally are lower margin, but if volume is enough they still can be very profitable. It SHOULD be the higher priced vehicle has a higher margin. I think there is a little misunderstanding over the $30,000 per vehicle loss because a lot of it is depreciation/capital costs which decrease per vehicle as more units are produced. So they need to keep producing R1 units as best they can to lower the per unit cost. The most important thing they will do this year is the shut down in April. Reconfigure the R1 vehicles so they can get them out the door with better initial quality/less warranty work. If they can cut enough costs maybe they can offer some incentives to get more sales (like X free charging from RAN/Tesla networks which will be billed through Rivian).

I'm more optimistic than ever for Rivian over the Georgia delay just because management FINALLY reacted to financial and macro realities. Can't wait for my new R1T to arrive (bought a demo). Officially went over 60,000 miles on my first one today.

 

[riviantogo]

I edited the title to make it a question, which is more appropriate. I like the point about learning how to make money on R1 before starting R2. I hope they can figure it out.

 

[NY_Rob]

We want the world and we want it..... NOW!

 

[Philzer]

While I believe it's likely they will stick with the first half of 2026 target, I do think it's possible they could surprise us with a late 2025 start. Under promise and over deliver might be their strategy.

 

[theyoungone]

Electrical Engineer - 30+ years of electromechanical practical experience on manufacturing line design, installation and startup. Let's start at the basics - Rivian has already ordered and has a delivery timeline for the R2 production equipment. Yes, they could pay $$$$$ to try to get the OEMs to speed up delivery - this is not "Off the shelf" equipment. But if just ONE of the dozens of OEMs can't deliver, the whole plan collapses and $$$$$ was wasted speeding up delivery of the other OEM equipment. Been there, seen it, bought the T Shirt while working on a project for a Fortune 25 food manufacturing company. $700k wasted in rush order payments when one vendor fails to deliver and forces an 12 week delay that was trying to be eliminated.

Retrofitting/modifying/reprogramming existing R1 equipment would be a lot more involved and challenging than most people think, unless you have worked in manufacturing integration. The R2 is smaller all around compared to R1 so EVERY SINGLE ONE of the tens of thousands of assembly line variables has to be rebuilt, reworked, reprogrammed, retimed, adjusted and tested. Some of these variables undoubtedly require new equipment because the existing equipment was purpose designed for R1 dimensions and won't work with R2 dimensions.

How do you "dial-in" a storage rack that is specifically designed to hold and support 20 R1S side body panel stampings, but the R2S is 15" shorter?

How do you "dial-in" a frame welding jig that was designed to R1 physical tolerances to one-thousandth of an inch? Answer - you don't. You start from scratch with a new design.

How do you retask a robot that was installed to provide space for a taller/wider R1 body to pass through the line, but the R2 is smaller and now the robot's physical "arm" axes are not long enough, or are too long, to reach into the smaller R2 weld area? Answer - you have to move the robot or install one that works.

These are hypothetical but real life examples of what is involved in retrofitting a heavy manufacturing line. Now multiply the above type of challenges by 100 or 1000 instances. All this is on a line that has already been down this reword road at least once - this is a redesigned/reworked Mitsubishi production facility with some of the original robots from what I have read.

I get it that in today's world of tech, everything seems like it should be simple and easy. Move this here, turn a few screws there, reprogram a couple of lines of robot code, done. It's not. Having done this stuff for 30 years, I have 1000% confidence that the Rivian team knows what's at risk here, has analyzed the options from top to bottom several times, and has arrived at the best overall plan to get this done as quickly, efficiently, and cost effectively as possible.

thank. you. i wish this exactly reply could be posted on every RIVIAN forum, discussion board, and messaging thread imaginable. people want RIVIAN to succeed, but they want it on their terms and they want it to happen now.

 

[BCondrey]

Electrical Engineer - 30+ years of electromechanical practical experience on manufacturing line design, installation and startup. Let's start at the basics - Rivian has already ordered and has a delivery timeline for the R2 production equipment. Yes, they could pay $$$$$ to try to get the OEMs to speed up delivery - this is not "Off the shelf" equipment. But if just ONE of the dozens of OEMs can't deliver, the whole plan collapses and $$$$$ was wasted speeding up delivery of the other OEM equipment. Been there, seen it, bought the T Shirt while working on a project for a Fortune 25 food manufacturing company. $700k wasted in rush order payments when one vendor fails to deliver and forces an 12 week delay that was trying to be eliminated.

Retrofitting/modifying/reprogramming existing R1 equipment would be a lot more involved and challenging than most people think, unless you have worked in manufacturing integration. The R2 is smaller all around compared to R1 so EVERY SINGLE ONE of the tens of thousands of assembly line variables has to be rebuilt, reworked, reprogrammed, retimed, adjusted and tested. Some of these variables undoubtedly require new equipment because the existing equipment was purpose designed for R1 dimensions and won't work with R2 dimensions.

How do you "dial-in" a storage rack that is specifically designed to hold and support 20 R1S side body panel stampings, but the R2S is 15" shorter?

How do you "dial-in" a frame welding jig that was designed to R1 physical tolerances to one-thousandth of an inch? Answer - you don't. You start from scratch with a new design.

How do you retask a robot that was installed to provide space for a taller/wider R1 body to pass through the line, but the R2 is smaller and now the robot's physical "arm" axes are not long enough, or are too long, to reach into the smaller R2 weld area? Answer - you have to move the robot or install one that works.

These are hypothetical but real life examples of what is involved in retrofitting a heavy manufacturing line. Now multiply the above type of challenges by 100 or 1000 instances. All this is on a line that has already been down this reword road at least once - this is a redesigned/reworked Mitsubishi production facility with some of the original robots from what I have read.

I get it that in today's world of tech, everything seems like it should be simple and easy. Move this here, turn a few screws there, reprogram a couple of lines of robot code, done. It's not. Having done this stuff for 30 years, I have 1000% confidence that the Rivian team knows what's at risk here, has analyzed the options from top to bottom several times, and has arrived at the best overall plan to get this done as quickly, efficiently, and cost effectively as possible.

My understanding is that there are two production lines in Normal. They have 4 vehicles to build (R1S, R1T, Delivery Van, R2). Would you agree that they have to retool one line completely to produce the R2, and then use the other line for the other 3 models? It would seem they will continue the sift to more shop access for already produced vehicles, and less dependance on custom orders.

 

[Oyabro]

I keep seeing everyone say an early 26’ start. Didn’t RJ announced potential delivery starting around that quarter, not beginning production? That would lean to believe production would be happening earlier than 26’.

 

[Zeusy Zeus]

The R1’s will still exist that’s the whole point. There will be demand for their flagship products because they will be better in every way possible hence the increased price. Also not to crap on Rivian here but Tesla made a lot of promises also with the CT and look how that turned out. A lot of things can change between now and 2026… for starters the price and components. Best not to read too much into it and buy the R1 products if you believe in the company and their future. Waiting for R2 in 2026 might leave many disappointed. We just won’t know until it comes.

 

[Dark-Fx]

Electrical Engineer - 30+ years of electromechanical practical experience on manufacturing line design, installation and startup. Let's start at the basics - Rivian has already ordered and has a delivery timeline for the R2 production equipment. Yes, they could pay $$$$$ to try to get the OEMs to speed up delivery - this is not "Off the shelf" equipment. But if just ONE of the dozens of OEMs can't deliver, the whole plan collapses and $$$$$ was wasted speeding up delivery of the other OEM equipment. Been there, seen it, bought the T Shirt while working on a project for a Fortune 25 food manufacturing company. $700k wasted in rush order payments when one vendor fails to deliver and forces an 12 week delay that was trying to be eliminated.

Retrofitting/modifying/reprogramming existing R1 equipment would be a lot more involved and challenging than most people think, unless you have worked in manufacturing integration. The R2 is smaller all around compared to R1 so EVERY SINGLE ONE of the tens of thousands of assembly line variables has to be rebuilt, reworked, reprogrammed, retimed, adjusted and tested. Some of these variables undoubtedly require new equipment because the existing equipment was purpose designed for R1 dimensions and won't work with R2 dimensions.

How do you "dial-in" a storage rack that is specifically designed to hold and support 20 R1S side body panel stampings, but the R2S is 15" shorter?

How do you "dial-in" a frame welding jig that was designed to R1 physical tolerances to one-thousandth of an inch? Answer - you don't. You start from scratch with a new design.

How do you retask a robot that was installed to provide space for a taller/wider R1 body to pass through the line, but the R2 is smaller and now the robot's physical "arm" axes are not long enough, or are too long, to reach into the smaller R2 weld area? Answer - you have to move the robot or install one that works.

These are hypothetical but real life examples of what is involved in retrofitting a heavy manufacturing line. Now multiply the above type of challenges by 100 or 1000 instances. All this is on a line that has already been down this reword road at least once - this is a redesigned/reworked Mitsubishi production facility with some of the original robots from what I have read.

I get it that in today's world of tech, everything seems like it should be simple and easy. Move this here, turn a few screws there, reprogram a couple of lines of robot code, done. It's not. Having done this stuff for 30 years, I have 1000% confidence that the Rivian team knows what's at risk here, has analyzed the options from top to bottom several times, and has arrived at the best overall plan to get this done as quickly, efficiently, and cost effectively as possible.

The entire line would have had to have been built with this in mind, and it would have cost a lot more in the first place. No way in hell Rivian could have afforded this up-front on their first line.

I've been involved in setting up a new model in a plant that was designed for this, and it was a lot of very stressful weekends getting new equipment installed and getting the line operating again for the existing models. There was a huge penalty in any sort of a delay on Monday when production resumed. Friday evenings were spent undoing bodges that were just to get the line operating again

It will be interesting to find out how much shutdown time Rivian needs to convert a line.

 

[Mooeymoose]

I can’t imagine the normal plant will be able to stay busy on just R1s/r2t plus service van. The r1 is essentially a US only car and long term demand is not going to be high. Even Tesla does not sell many model x’s.

 

[DuoRivian]

I can’t imagine the normal plant will be able to stay busy on just R1s/r2t plus service van. The r1 is essentially a US only car and long term demand is not going to be high. Even Tesla does not sell many model x’s.

Normal can be a 200k plant, say 50k for R1, 50k for EDV and that leaves 100k for R2. Volume totals for R2 could easily be multiples of that in the US market (Mode Y is 250k, this size crossover sells millions) and it is going to Europe which will add volume.
Georgia will provide more US volume, the EU volume and the R3. Normal will be running flat out. That’s good for the economics since they are running around 25-30% of capacity now.

 

[itselectric]

Here's my prediction, based on a very best-case scenario:

• R1 light refresh comes out around May/June, including less expensive options.
  
  
• This will boost sales for 2024, but maybe not to an exciting level if interest rates/economy don't improve by Q3/Q4.
  
  
• R2 will get more exposure and continue to add reservations, pushing the total to 150k+ by EOY.
  
  
• R2 is a very desirable product, it and the Kia EV9, are the only electric crossovers that have that Range Rover boxy look many people like (EV9 is bigger and more expensive though).
  
  
• Rivian gets more funding, investors buy-in and push for it to go out the door more quickly and even with significant additional cost, it makes sense to pull the timeline up to Q4 2025, in limited quantities (think a couple hundred a month to start).
  
  
• Limited quantities, but good reviews, will make the product even more desirable.
  
  
• Volume production would still be mid-2026, but some R2s will be on the road, Rivian can sell desirability, and can get test vehicles out for people to try.

This seems legitimately possible to me and would massively boost the company's reputation, customer base, and stock price.

It would also be the scenario in which Rivian's chances of bankruptcy are the most limited. If investors know customers want it, they will pump money into the business.

 

[PeterSK]

Here's my prediction, based on a very best-case scenario:

• R1 light refresh comes out around May/June, including less expensive options.
  
  
• This will boost sales for 2024, but maybe not to an exciting level if interest rates/economy don't improve by Q3/Q4.
  
  
• R2 will get more exposure and continue to add reservations, pushing the total to 150k+ by EOY.
  
  
• R2 is a very desirable product, it and the Kia EV9, are the only electric crossovers that have that Range Rover boxy look many people like (EV9 is bigger and more expensive though).
  
  
• Rivian gets more funding, investors buy-in and push for it to go out the door more quickly and even with significant additional cost, it makes sense to pull the timeline up to Q4 2025, in limited quantities (think a couple hundred a month to start).
  
  
• Limited quantities, but good reviews, will make the product even more desirable.
  
  
• Volume production would still be mid-2026, but some R2s will be on the road, Rivian can sell desirability, and can get test vehicles out for people to try.

This seems legitimately possible to me and would massively boost the company's reputation, customer base, and stock price.

It would also be the scenario in which Rivian's chances of bankruptcy are the most limited. If investors know customers want it, they will pump money into the business.

i would add to that a push for EDV/RCV and other fleet sales and volume. They could strip down an R1T for fleet use, eg the ATT announcement said that the deal (described as a pilot, btw) would include R1T and even R1S as well as the vans. Because volume is key to spreading the fixed factory and line costs, even at fleet prices these sales could help bring down the costs for all R1s.

 

[defcon888]

I can't wait for Christmas morning either, but let's let Rivian work through their Normal process. If you listened to the last quarterly call, they have already chosen vendors who will supply for both the R1 and R2. R1 is getting cheaper to manufacture and it is a great vehicle.

Part of the reason for the R1 slowdown is that there is a big switchover in components. They are managing inventory so they run out of everything at the same time. Often, a manufacturing company scraps a lot of inventory on a big switch like this.

IMHO, the R1 Ascent trim is going to show up before the R2. Margins will be better, and that puppy is gonna be awesome!!

Yep...it is called "Just In Time" manufacturing. THey get the parts days before they are needed, that way there isn't a large inventory taking up space.

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