As you might have guessed.... higher gas prices has increased interest in EVs [ADMIN WARNING: NO POLITICS]

[skyguyscott]

Some have speculated on what the increase in gas prices might have on EV Sales. Here's an article tracking some early searches. Seems there is an increase in interest, but no firm data on increased sales yet, following the sales slump with the elimination of the incentive last Q3.

Article notes a spike in inquiries on used EVs, which tracks for drivers who are being squeezed financially by fuel prices but who also likewise would not be able to afford a new EV.

My guess is that if gas prices remain high and/or continue to increase (and the damage done so far to the oil infrastructure in the middle east portends a long and costly recovery) there may be an uptick in sales. If the R3 was ready to go now instead of the more expensive R2, I think Rivian would really stand to gain more substantially than with the R2. I would be surprised if the R1 sees much of a bump, perhaps the R1T, given the R2 is cheaper and only a bit smaller than the R1S.

Chinese brands will probably see a significant bump in Europe and elsewhere where they are for sale. Domestically, the cheapest models will probably see the most noticeable sales increases.

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[Great Gatsby]

Even without these, I predicted EV sales to start upticking again a few months after the tax incentive ended. A lot can be debated regarding whether the tax credit is necessary or not, but IMO, this is not what was going to move EV sales forward. What got me looking at EVs wasn't a $7,500 discount. It was this. Gas prices spike at any moments notice. During the summer. During a hurricane. Any war breaks out. I like having fixed costs. Gas was never one of those things.

I still own a gas car, but it will likely be my last. The only benefit to me is fast refuel on roadtrips, but even then, we found ourselves wanting to take the EVs instead for the comfort and tech. I predict that this will be a good year for EV sales. With the BMW iX3, Volvo EX60, Rivian R2 and Mercedes GLC EV entering the ring, people can no longer complain about lack of range of charging speeds (though I'm sure we still will). Really good, attainable (notice I didn't say affordable) EVs are coming. For people complaining about cheap ones, they are several good offerings under $40K (Chevy Equinox EV, Nissan Leaf, Chevy Bolt, Tesla Model 3, heck, even the new Toyota CHR and its Subaru twin looks interesting). Despite what the headlines want to read, EVs are still coming and getting announced. As for the used EV markets, they are straight up steals out there. Reliable low mileage cars for half of the cost new. You can buy a used Mach-E GT for under $25k. Come on.

Anecdotally, me and the wife definitely been getting more questions from coworkers, family and friends surrounding EVs. I've always said EV adoption will need more of an effort to put ass in seats. I think with the current gas prices, that will do just that.

 

[BigSkies]

I just saw an article about the EV market in places like the Philippines going bonkers. It sounds like demand for BYD is off the charts there. I suspect there's a big difference in places more exposed to gulf oil, and in places where gas expense is a larger portion of typical incomes. It also doesn't hurt that Chinese EV's don't carry the same price premium that US ones do.

The real trend in the US will be based on what consumers expect for long-term gas prices. It seems the markets and most consumers are operating under the assumption of a full TACO, and gas prices dropping rapidly in a few months. I doubt the EV market will change much if that happen. It could shift materially if consumers start expecting higher gas prices for the long term.

 

[antimatter]

Lots of folks are 'stuck' right now, I think. The higher cost of living (no politics, just an observation) has meant there are plenty of people who would love to switch but can't afford to. I'm seeing that the average age of passenger vehicles on the road is 12.3 years, meaning there's lots of folks who are locked into a particular vehicle with no way out. If EV manufacturers would offer something along the lines of a BYD Dolphin at sub-$20k prices, that might help spur the change, and once Chinese manufacturers have full access to US markets that might give the other auto manufacturers the swift kick they need to innovate in a lower-cost environment.

 

[Aharon]

As battery materials and manufacturing advance, the price of batteries will continue to decrease. EVs have fewer parts, so as manufacturing becomes commoditized and further scale, the EVs will become much cheaper to make. Eventually the decision for the consumer will be: I can get this awesome $25k new EV, or a similarly specd $50k new gasoline car. This is how EV wins in the end. It wont be the buyer deciding to change to EV, it will be the buyer wanting a high quality car at a lower price.

 

[Tim-in-CA]

Unfortunately people have the memory of a goldfish and when gas prices come down, they go right back to purchasing bloated gas guzzling SUVs. They don't think of the long term and the volatility of fuel prices not to mention the eco consequences.

 

[EricT]

As with anything that is a quantum change; for a lot of folks it'll need to "hurt" before they make changes, as logical and timely as they may be!

 

[NY_Rob]

Unfortunately people have the memory of a goldfish and when gas prices come down, they go right back to purchasing bloated gas guzzling SUVs. They don't think of the long term and the volatility of fuel prices not to mention the eco consequences.

Sad but true Tim!

 

[Gen(R3)Xer]

Unfortunately people have the memory of a goldfish and when gas prices come down, they go right back to purchasing bloated gas guzzling SUVs. They don't think of the long term and the volatility of fuel prices not to mention the eco consequences.

Yep, I’d say most people forget things in about 2 weeks. Also tons of procrastination.

 

[stormbreaker]

So many folks are stressed financially. I see plenty of YT videos where the auto industry is under stress. Imagine being leveraged for well over 60 months on a new ride. YIKES.

And now fuel prices going through roof? Reasonable folks with means may make the switch. But for the most part folks are sadly just trying to get by.

 

[Thedude]

Unfortunately people have the memory of a goldfish and when gas prices come down, they go right back to purchasing bloated gas guzzling SUVs. They don't think of the long term and the volatility of fuel prices not to mention the eco consequences.

Meanwhile people here are driving bloated electron guzzling SUVs. It’s hard to argue against an inefficient ICE SUV when a R1S is oversized for 90% of buyers and inefficient as well.

 

[VandalSibs]

Meanwhile people here are driving bloated electron guzzling SUVs. It’s hard to argue against an inefficient ICE SUV when a R1S is oversized for 90% of buyers and inefficient as well.

At least the R1's inefficiencies don't add more CO2 to the atmosphere (and before you mention that some users' electrons might come from coal or gas power plants, those are more efficient than a gas car or truck).

 

[Hereforthesnacks]

At least the R1's inefficiencies don't add more CO2 to the atmosphere (and before you mention that some users' electrons might come from coal or gas power plants, those are more efficient than a gas car or truck).

Ok….. But an EV that gets 3mi/kwhr adds less CO2 to the atmosphere than one that gets 2.2. So….I don’t get it.

 

[mkg3]

No so sure about increase interest in BEVs. Just this morning, CNBC was reporting that people are looking at mid sized. vehicles, I/o full sized, and hybrids.

I think that people, in general who do not currently own EVs, still think in terms of higher MPG rather than a complete alternative.

In CA, were I am, I see prices well above $6/gal and while its high, adjusted for inflation, still not as high as what we've seen in the past in terms of percent of net income.

Before people go buy new vehicles, people simply drive less or that simply absorb the some cost increase.

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