Q4 2024 Gross Profit of $170M for Rivian

[strykerwsu]

Buy a $90K R1S in 2025, or a $45k R2 in 2026, that looks EXACTLY THE SAME.

Every person I talk to about buying a Rivian says the same thing “I love your truck, but I think I’m going to wait for the R2.”

Problematic in the short term.

Tesla sells a tiny fraction of their premium models vs the Y and 3.

The R2 won't be $45k

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[SANZC02]

Seriously? That's about the max that the market will buy. Need to get the R2 out for growth.

This is true, it can be verified by how flat Tesla Model S/X were quarter by quarter from 2016-2023. I think they are around 60k units annually.

 

[captainjp]

Prices went up with gen2 and the expiration of the old pre hike prices, so not surprised with down sales, especially with the loss of the $7500 tax credit. They just need to survive long enough to release the R2

I believe the tax credit is still in effect for now. The R1 class under $80k only qualify for half of the credit, though. Lessees get full $7500 cap cost reduction. Again, this is as of today.

Edited

 

[FutureTruck]

The R2 won't be $45k

Of course it won’t. But that’s what Rivian told everyone, so that’s what people are expecting.

 

[ukyank]

Flat-ish deliveries of an $80K+ vehicle during a likely substantial recession would be a great achievement.

A recession is not likely, let alone a substantial one

 

[beaker]

A recession is not likely, let alone a substantial one

"The housing market will never crash"

 

[mkg3]

The labor market has been cooling pretty dramatically the last couple of months, consumer confidence measures trending downward, inflation picking up again....add a few hundred thousand extra layoffs from the regime, trade wars, etc.

It doesn't take a crystal ball here.

We shall see. We're long ways from being in "substantial recession", as you refer to. We're much better off today than where we were just a couple of years ago. Not about who is in the WH. Its about where the economy is.

 

[Zorg]

I believe the tax credit is still in effect for now. The R1 class under $80k only qualify for half of the credit, though. Lessees get full $7500 cap cost reduction. Again, this is as of today.

Edited

True. Should have said "expected loss"

 

[ukyank]

We shall see. We're long ways from being in "substantial recession", as you refer to. We're much better off today than where we were just a couple of years ago. Not about who is in the WH. Its about where the economy is.

Yea. The only analysts/economists giving the chances of recession to be over 30% this year are the ones who predict one every year

 

[Hereforthesnacks]

This is true, it can be verified by how flat Tesla Model S/X were quarter by quarter from 2016-2023. I think they are around 60k units annually.

But that’s when the 3 was available. The question is, what were the growth numbers for the X/S when there was no 3/Y. Or better yet, what were the growth numbers for the X/S when the 3/Y was announced, but not yet available?

 

[beaker]

Yea. The only analysts/economists giving the chances of recession to be over 30% this year are the ones who predict one every year

Based on the pace of publicly announced layoffs and ones I know that are coming, I'd bet we'll see the first net negative jobs report by April or May. That'd be the first once since the spring 2020 crash.

Anyway, I'll keep building positions in Euro defense stocks. War profiteer!

 

[SANZC02]

But that’s when the 3 was available. The question is, what were the growth numbers for the X/S when there was no 3/Y. Or better yet, what were the growth numbers for the X/S when the 3/Y was announced, but not yet available?

They started Model 3 in 2017 but sold less than 2k that year. They were closer to 100k units in 2017 but dropped off after that. There was not much out there in 2016/2017 if you wanted an EV.

I bought my S in 2016 because they dropped the price to invite Model 3 reservations to buy early. At the time I was not sure if the tax credit would still be there and Tesla always released top trims first so I took the deal. Paid less for my Model S than people I worked with paid for their Model 3s in early 2018.

 

[riviansmoke]

Based on the pace of publicly announced layoffs and ones I know that are coming, I'd bet we'll see the first net negative jobs report by April or May. That'd be the first once since the spring 2020 crash.

Anyway, I'll keep building positions in Euro defense stocks. War profiteer!

Agreed! I work in the semiconductor industry which usually is one of the leading indicators. The outlook is bleak for 2025 with layoffs occurring everywhere. Too much geopolitical uncertainty, things are going to get bad before they get better. There are indicators all over suggesting a sluggish year ahead. Hopefully things turn out better than I think, but I doubt it.

 

[emoore]

Agreed! I work in the semiconductor industry which usually is one of the leading indicators. The outlook is bleak for 2025 with layoffs occurring everywhere. Too much geopolitical uncertainty, things are going to get bad before they get better. There are indicators all over suggesting a sluggish year ahead. Hopefully things turn out better than I think, but I doubt it.

I can see a sluggish year but a major recession I don’t see. I’m expecting 2025 to be flatish.

 

[Zoidz]

Based on the pace of publicly announced layoffs and ones I know that are coming, I'd bet we'll see the first net negative jobs report by April or May. That'd be the first once since the spring 2020 crash.

Agree. In addition to the DOGE reduction of government direct employees, there will be a ripple effect in private business due to witheld funding, etc. We just don't know the extent.

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