Q4 2024 Gross Profit of $170M for Rivian

[pamalabama]

How exactly does this gross profit work? Does rivian count all the energy credits from the year in Q4 so that Q4 shows a positive gross profit?

Edit: I saw the energy credits were something like 20K per vehicle? That seems high

If tesla can make the model Y refresh for $35K does that mean they can sell it for that price given the energy credits?

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[UnsungZero_OldTimeAdMan]

Nice. But the haters are still going to hate.

 

[ThirteenElectrics]

I’m glad Rivian has a gross profit even if they still posted a net loss.

The elephant in the room is the disappointing guidance. R1 sales are flat and everyone is praying that the R2 is somehow going to save the day, despite it looking like a claustrophobic matchbox version of the R1. People need a religion, I guess.

I predict the R1 is going to sell even less than guided and that he R2 will not ship in volume until 2027, at significantly higher MSRP. I hope they prove me wrong, but Rivian doesn’t have a history of good decision making or execution. It’s full of n00bs.

 

[ThirteenElectrics]

When will Trump undo yue regulations that are driving manufacturers to produce EVs? The credit market will soon dry up and EV programs will be abandoned left and right. Government mandates are required to drive EV adoption. An ICE still gets you from point A to point B. EV’s are not a revolutionary product and consumers will still need a big push.

 

[ThirteenElectrics]

“This quarter we achieved positive gross profit and removed $31,000 in automotive cost of goods sold per vehicle delivered in Q4 2024 relative to Q4 2023.

This isn’t as much of an achievement as it sounds. The more of a part you buy from a supplier, cumulatively, the cheaper the part gets. This is simply because the supplier has recouped their setup costs. So to cut COGS all you need to do is wait until you have sold X number of units. Apparently Rivian has done so. Congrats, Rivian, for staying solvent long enough to hit this magic threshold. It means there won’t be significant redesigns of the car (new parts are expensive parts) but that’s probably OK. Only the front end needs a design (to get rid of the goofy lights). And Rivian badly needs to debug the unreliable parts they’re already getting. New parts = lemon cars.

 

[savethemanual]

This isn’t as much of an achievement as it sounds. The more of a part you buy from a supplier, cumulatively, the cheaper the part gets. This is simply because the supplier has recouped their setup costs. So to cut COGS all you need to do is wait until you have sold X number of units. Apparently Rivian has done so. Congrats, Rivian, for staying solvent long enough to hit this magic threshold. It means there won’t be significant redesigns of the car (new parts are expensive parts) but that’s probably OK. Only the front end needs a design (to get rid of the goofy lights). And Rivian badly needs to debug the unreliable parts they’re already getting. New parts = lemon cars.

Ok negative Nancy.....

Rivian has made HUGE accomplishments, there is no denying this given the climate in which they are launching a new car company.

 

[Newtonrj]

I’m glad Rivian has a gross profit even if they still posted a net loss.

The elephant in the room is the disappointing guidance. R1 sales are flat and everyone is praying that the R2 is somehow going to save the day, despite it looking like a claustrophobic matchbox version of the R1. People need a religion, I guess.

I predict the R1 is going to sell even less than guided and that he R2 will not ship in volume until 2027, at significantly higher MSRP. I hope they prove me wrong, but Rivian doesn’t have a history of good decision making or execution. It’s full of n00bs.

Not calling anything mentioned incorrectly. Just a reminder that Rivian has another product line in the EDV/ECV. Correctly, they no longer have Amazon exclusivity, however Amazon still has 80,000 EDVs left to take in for their 100,000 commitment they reaffirmed late last year. Now, Rivian is also selling the ECV to any commercial needs for both Fleet 500 and Fleet 700 sized vans.

As to 'disappointing guidance', as long as they continue to move towards more Gross Profitability while also focusing on higher volume/emerging products like the R2, R3 and R3X it makes a clear statement of control. They are facing economic pressures from retraction in tax incentives but these pull-backs impact all EV manufacturers equally. Rivian is managing growth and expansion at a strategic level through remaining cash, government loans and current facility expansion. They are also making a compelling product with steady and consistent updates. Further, they are focused on preserving a customer community, charger outlet and social space development across all market areas (not just CA and NY).

 

[Newtonrj]

This isn’t as much of an achievement as it sounds. The more of a part you buy from a supplier, cumulatively, the cheaper the part gets. This is simply because the supplier has recouped their setup costs. So to cut COGS all you need to do is wait until you have sold X number of units. Apparently Rivian has done so. Congrats, Rivian, for staying solvent long enough to hit this magic threshold. It means there won’t be significant redesigns of the car (new parts are expensive parts) but that’s probably OK. Only the front end needs a design (to get rid of the goofy lights). And Rivian badly needs to debug the unreliable parts they’re already getting. New parts = lemon cars.

While true of general business, not true of Rivian. For them to reach unit Gross Profit was nothing short of herculean. They had to redesign the entire vehicle but not disturb the outer design cues. That means new battery, motors, ECUs, suppliers, cameras, wheels and software. Gently calling it the Gen2. They deployed this silently with apparently one hiccup in a new contract with a wiring supplier extrapolating copper winding counts.

I'm sure there were more that didn't make it to press releases but they managed the transition to a more cost-effective BOM. They incentivized sales through Performance+, Tri-motor and most recently, California Dune special edition. We know the Quad/Max is out there, they have a rock-solid partnership with VW and have other sales levers to keep Rivian top-of-mind with direct-to-consumer sales model. Rivian has also removed the often opined thought they are going to run out of cash or will have to ask for more investment.

 

[R1TS]

They incentivized sales through Performance+, Tri-motor and most recently, California Dune special edition. We know the Quad/Max is out there, they have a rock-solid partnership with VW and have other sales levers to keep Rivian top-of-mind with direct-to-consumer sales model.

Sales haven’t increased nor is it projected to increase. That’s the problem.

 

[good2go]

This is excellent. Does anyone know the approximate loss per vehicle sold now?

Did they not say they made a profit?

 

[savethemanual]

Sales haven’t increased nor is it projected to increase. That’s the problem.

Capitalism...everything thing must keep going up, ha! Pretty sure their realistic plan for growth is launching the R2/3 as their volume models, not depend on a six figure vehicle as the growth leader.

 

[mkg3]

Not calling anything mentioned incorrectly. Just a reminder that Rivian has another product line in the EDV/ECV. Correctly, they no longer have Amazon exclusivity, however Amazon still has 80,000 EDVs left to take in for their 100,000 commitment they reaffirmed late last year. Now, Rivian is also selling the ECV to any commercial needs for both Fleet 500 and Fleet 700 sized vans.

As to 'disappointing guidance', as long as they continue to move towards more Gross Profitability while also focusing on higher volume/emerging products like the R2, R3 and R3X it makes a clear statement of control. They are facing economic pressures from retraction in tax incentives but these pull-backs impact all EV manufacturers equally. Rivian is managing growth and expansion at a strategic level through remaining cash, government loans and current facility expansion. They are also making a compelling product with steady and consistent updates. Further, they are focused on preserving a customer community, charger outlet and social space development across all market areas (not just CA and NY).

It seems that you may have missed the comment that Amazon took delivery in Q4, which was not expected. As result, Amazon will take less this year. In other words, it was sales pull forward into 2024Q4.

The guidance was expected to be around 55K vehicles. They are 10% short of that expectation..

The best thing they can do is to entry level R1T for mid $50ks as the "pro" model with about 200 mile range and stripped down interior. Since there is no R2T, this will fill the gap and satisfy a hole that Kia/Hyndai is trying to fill.

 

[emoore]

Capitalism...everything thing must keep going up, ha! Pretty sure their realistic plan for growth is launching the R2/3 as their volume models, not depend on a six figure vehicle as the growth leader.

And that will be capitalisms eventual downfall unless we can keep expanding the population to other planets/moons.

 

[Hereforthesnacks]

I’m glad Rivian has a gross profit even if they still posted a net loss.

The elephant in the room is the disappointing guidance. R1 sales are flat and everyone is praying that the R2 is somehow going to save the day, despite it looking like a claustrophobic matchbox version of the R1. People need a religion, I guess.

I predict the R1 is going to sell even less than guided and that he R2 will not ship in volume until 2027, at significantly higher MSRP. I hope they prove me wrong, but Rivian doesn’t have a history of good decision making or execution. It’s full of n00bs.

yep and that’s how the market reacted, as predicted. People here call realists “haters.” But the reality is the numbers tell the story for a business like this. They did some excel spreadsheet math to make it seem like a profit. But they are going to sell less in 2025 than in 2024. Even their rosiest 2025 prediction is less than 2024 deliveries.

So, they need to their brand back up, get SCs ready and waiting for R2, IMPROVE QUALITY, and get people excited about the R2. R2 will need to be priced at $45k starting to be competitive with Tesla. I’m nervous the R2 will really start around $52k. That will be an issue.

If RJ is replaced with an Ops person, that will greatly increase Rivian’s chances of success.

 

[narmstrong79]

1st Half 2025 is the true test, this is all just financial gymnastics. Good for them, but it's not real sustainable profit.

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