Is there really no way R2 can be produced earlier in Normal?

[DuoRivians]

I think if Rivian figured out a way to produce R2 vehicles in Normal in 2025, it would change the whole doom/gloom narrative on a dime.

I’m definitely not an expert here. If anyone has a more informed opinion, is there really no way Rivian can produce R2 vehicles in Normal next year? I think even 20-30K would be a fantastic story.

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[COdogman]

I’ve been there and seen the factory and property. I’m sure there is a way they could do something, but it’s hard to imagine more space being created inside the existing building. It’s packed. And tents in IL during winter/ summer does not seem plausible either. The area near the wind turbine/ test track could be developed.

I agree with your base idea that finding a cheaper/ faster way to get R2 to market would be a great thing for them.

 

[Dark-Fx]

When I did paint shop work in China, they had not poured the flooring yet for all of the building prior to us already testing and debugging our paint equipment. No bathrooms inside then either, just a shack outside with a trough. I don't think that stuff would fly here.

 

[MidnightRivian]

I would've expected them to just expand the factory in Normal, IL and build it there along with the rest of it.

Hopefully they can figure out a way to build it in Normal, IL until the new factory comes online.

My wife is on board with purchasing an R2. I am slightly surprised and have been trying to get her into a crossover for over a decade.

She loves the product and quality. Totally sold on buying the R2 and some of the stock too.

 

[R1Tom]

I used to think this way...but am hoping the executive team have known this has been comming a long time and have a plan to make it ultimately till getting R2 off ground.

I certainly wanted them to repurpose an existing facility somewhere....but....a state of the art plant with all efficiency and hopefully QC gains, would be the ultimate answer.

Now....my wild cars are.....do they really have a plan to get to that point? Will the R2 be compelling enough against all the anticipated competition? Pribably more too, just can't think of at moment.

But...I have faith....blind as it may be....that they got this right and it will prove out over time.

 

[Zoidz]

Givien what has happened in Georgia the past year and the EV slowdown, I would expect/hope that Rivian has been thinking very hard about R2 production options internally.

From what I have read there are two existing lines in Normal. An R1 line and a EDV line. There's no realistic way they can convert/adapt/retool an existing line to manufacture R2 while they are producing R1 or EDV.

Do they have space under existing roof to build an R2 line in Normal?
Don't know, but it does not seem that way. In that case, tehy would have to build a new building, it's not much different from continuing to build in Georgia. Tents are not an option. Let's just get past that Tesla gimmick. Tesla never produced a vehicle from start to finish in a tent. Never. Ever.

What is the real current and estimated EDV production for the next 2 years?
Amazon has clearly fallen way short on their anticipated deliveries. Does it make $$ and contractual penalty (if any) sense to just stop producing EDVs and convert the EDV line to R2?

Let's assume they have space or would decide to convert the EDV line to R2. To produce vehicles sometime in 2025 (let's say June 2025) that's 16-17 months. They have to:

• Modify existing equipment, or take delivery of the already spec'd and ordered Georgia equipment a year in advance. It's highly likely it would be a combination of both. The EDV line is not going to have all the work cells necessary for the R2. The EDV is a shell vehicle, not a fully finished interior. Can those equipment suppliers (robots, etc, etc.) speed up their deliveries by a year, including sending staff on site to install and debug? That's a big challenge in and of itself.
  
  
• Move the delivery timeline of OEM components (tires, wheels, seats, etc.) up a year compared to what they have already told OEMs regarding Georgia delivery timelines. This problem can be recursive. Can the OEMS in turn update THEIR equipment, production schedules, etc. to meet the accelerated Rivian demanded timeline?

The challenges are massive to shift gears and produce R2 in Normal for 2025 deliveries. I would love to see Rivian produce the R2 in 2025. I just don't see how it is realistically possible.

 

[crashmtb]

Givien what has happened in Georgia the past year and the EV slowdown, I would expect/hope that Rivian has been thinking very hard about R2 production options internally.

From what I have read there are two existing lines in Normal. An R1 line and a EDV line. There's no realistic way they can convert/adapt/retool an existing line to manufacture R2 while they are producing R1 or EDV.

Do they have space under existing roof to build an R2 line in Normal?
Don't know, but it does not seem that way. In that case, tehy would have to build a new building, it's not much different from continuing to build in Georgia. Tents are not an option. Let's just get past that Tesla gimmick. Tesla never produced a vehicle from start to finish in a tent. Never. Ever.

What is the real current and estimated EDV production for the next 2 years?
Amazon has clearly fallen way short on their anticipated deliveries. Does it make $$ and contractual penalty (if any) sense to just stop producing EDVs and convert the EDV line to R2?

Let's assume they have space or would decide to convert the EDV line to R2. To produce vehicles sometime in 2025 (let's say June 2025) that's 16-17 months. They have to:

• Modify existing equipment, or take delivery of the already spec'd and ordered Georgia equipment a year in advance. It's highly likely it would be a combination of both. The EDV line is not going to have all the work cells necessary for the R2. The EDV is a shell vehicle, not a fully finished interior. Can those equipment suppliers (robots, etc, etc.) speed up their deliveries by a year, including sending staff on site to install and debug? That's a big challenge in and of itself.
  
  
• Move the delivery timeline of OEM components (tires, wheels, seats, etc.) up a year compared to what they have already told OEMs regarding Georgia delivery timelines. This problem can be recursive. Can the OEMS in turn update THEIR equipment, production schedules, etc. to meet the accelerated Rivian demanded timeline?

The challenges are massive to shift gears and produce R2 in Normal for 2025 deliveries. I would love to see Rivian produce the R2 in 2025. I just don't see how it is realistically possible.

It woudl be easier/cheaper to scale back their crazy-ass omnicampus plans for georgia to a production facility only than to retool Normal for R2, even if they have physical capacity.

 

[DuoRivians]

Givien what has happened in Georgia the past year and the EV slowdown, I would expect/hope that Rivian has been thinking very hard about R2 production options internally.

From what I have read there are two existing lines in Normal. An R1 line and a EDV line. There's no realistic way they can convert/adapt/retool an existing line to manufacture R2 while they are producing R1 or EDV.

Do they have space under existing roof to build an R2 line in Normal?
Don't know, but it does not seem that way. In that case, tehy would have to build a new building, it's not much different from continuing to build in Georgia. Tents are not an option. Let's just get past that Tesla gimmick. Tesla never produced a vehicle from start to finish in a tent. Never. Ever.

What is the real current and estimated EDV production for the next 2 years?
Amazon has clearly fallen way short on their anticipated deliveries. Does it make $$ and contractual penalty (if any) sense to just stop producing EDVs and convert the EDV line to R2?

Let's assume they have space or would decide to convert the EDV line to R2. To produce vehicles sometime in 2025 (let's say June 2025) that's 16-17 months. They have to:

• Modify existing equipment, or take delivery of the already spec'd and ordered Georgia equipment a year in advance. It's highly likely it would be a combination of both. The EDV line is not going to have all the work cells necessary for the R2. The EDV is a shell vehicle, not a fully finished interior. Can those equipment suppliers (robots, etc, etc.) speed up their deliveries by a year, including sending staff on site to install and debug? That's a big challenge in and of itself.
  
  
• Move the delivery timeline of OEM components (tires, wheels, seats, etc.) up a year compared to what they have already told OEMs regarding Georgia delivery timelines. This problem can be recursive. Can the OEMS in turn update THEIR equipment, production schedules, etc. to meet the accelerated Rivian demanded timeline?

The challenges are massive to shift gears and produce R2 in Normal for 2025 deliveries. I would love to see Rivian produce the R2 in 2025. I just don't see how it is realistically possible.

Good analysis. I ask because they’re re-rating the factory anyway this year as part of the shut down. Wondering if some sort of audible could be called last minute to arrange floor space differently.

IMO, the ability to produce R2 from Normal would *significantly* assuage going concerns for Rivian. Even if they have to expand the factory footprint, like they did for the Enduro motors’ manufacturing space.

Even if Rivian spent $1B+ to make this happen, I think it would be the right call.

Rivian can still keep the Georgia plant on track, but perhaps consider 300K versus 400K output capacity capex spend plans (until more demand materializes).

 

[Zoidz]

Good analysis. I ask because they’re re-rating the factory anyway this year as part of the shut down. Wondering if some sort of audible could be called last minute to arrange floor space differently.

IMO, the ability to produce R2 from Normal would *significantly* assuage going concerns for Rivian. Even if they have to expand the factory footprint, like they did for the Enduro motors’ manufacturing space.

Even if Rivian spent $1B+ to make this happen, I think it would be the right call.

Rivian can still keep the Georgia plant on track, but perhaps consider 300K versus 400K output capacity capex spend plans (until more demand materializes).

If they could pull off a Normal R2 line for 2025 production, I lean towards that being the best financial move at this time. My technical work is this type of stuff - building manufacturing plants. I've seen the challenges first hand when things are planned and executed to a realistic schedule. It seems to me this would be a absolute nightmare to pull off successfully for 2025.

From early on when Georgia was announced, I had always questioned why Rivian didn't originally take a conservative approach and decide to produce R2 in Normal. There were the repeated comments about ultimate "250,000 annual capacity" in Normal. Based on the well documented cyclical history of the automobile industry, initial R2 production in Normal would have been a smart "hedge your bet" against this exactly type of downturn, as well as making it easier to get the R2 in production more quickly. It seems to me RJ & Team were over confident in how quickly the public would adopt EVs (and underestimated the EV political football) and "Shot for the Moon" in terms of long term production estimates/goals.

 

[VSG]

This whole "use tents" narrative that is showing up in various threads is a weird. When it's used, what I hear is that since Tesla used a desperation move like that, that is the correct and only way for an EV manufacturer to succeed. Also I hear the assumption that Rivian hasn't thought of and isn't thinking of a bridge strategy to carry them from where they are now to where they want to be in two years.

If anything, Rivian has consistently used a bootstrapping strategy for everything they've done. The Enduro motors are a great example - Rivian started off using Bosch to co-design and manufacture the QM engines. This enabled them to get to the point of shipping their initial products faster, because a major component, the motor, was outsourced. Likewise, it increased their chances of success. But the strategy had always been to bring the motor in-house, and they did that by developing the Enduro motor for the EDV. Then, when that was successful, they were able to introduce the Enduro into a new DM product in the R1 product line.

I expect Rivian will continue this process, especially with the motor. I expect they already have a new, smaller model of the Enduro designed that they can put into the existing QM in order to get the higher-powered QM that we've been hearing about, BUT ALSO to serve as the new motor in a dual motor R2. Because this new Enduro would be smaller (to fit 4 in a QM) it would also be appropriate for the smaller and less expensive R2, more so than the existing DM Enduro which would be too big for the R2.

Because the Enduro motors are being manufactured in Normal, and because I believe they will be introducing a new Enduro for the QM refresh and for the R2, they will already have this part of the R2 manufacturing up and running in Normal and proven before Georgia even opens. That's what I mean by a "bridge" between now and two years from now.

Likewise, Rivian has designed a lot of components to be common between the R1 and R2 models, and the reconfiguring of the assembly lines coming this year is planned in part to introduce these "R2" parts into the R1 line. So again, we have parts being produced for the R1 in Normal or by subcontractors that can be directly used in the R2, and they will be manufacturing these long before Georgia opens. Another bridge.

And I think people underestimate the schedule for Georgia. I think there will be buildings completed on site this year, and I think it is quite reasonable to assume that they can start configuring the assembly lines in 2025 for initial production of the R2 in late 2025, using the motors built in Normal and using the dual-use R1/R2 parts that are made in Normal (motors) or made by subcontractors. Maybe these initial vehicles are only shipped to employees again, as with the R1, but I think they will be turning out at least some vehicles in 2025.

Rivian doesn't need the entire site in Georgia to be completely finished and capable of a 200k run rate before they ship the first vehicle from Georgia. They need one assembly line up an running is all. And they can do more than one thing at the same time - working on additional lines as they produce the R2 and learn how to do it better, while also moving some manufacturing in-house. This is actually a more efficient way to do things.

Of course eventually they will want to move R2 motor production to Georgia, but it doesn't have to be moved before the R2 starts production. It DOES need to be moved to have the space for the eventual anticipated volume, but that gives them at least an extra year. And once motor production is moved to Georgia, that frees up space in Normal to increase R1 production, again leveraging their capabilities.

 

[DuoRivians]

If they could pull off a Normal R2 line for 2025 production, I lean towards that being the best financial move at this time. My technical work is this type of stuff - building manufacturing plants. I've seen the challenges first hand when things are planned and executed to a realistic schedule. It seems to me this would be a absolute nightmare to pull off successfully for 2025.

From early on when Georgia was announced, I had always questioned why Rivian didn't originally take a conservative approach and decide to produce R2 in Normal. There were the repeated comments about ultimate "250,000 annual capacity" in Normal. Based on the well documented cyclical history of the automobile industry, initial R2 production in Normal would have been a smart "hedge your bet" against this exactly type of downturn, as well as making it easier to get the R2 in production more quickly. It seems to me RJ & Team were over confident in how quickly the public would adopt EVs (and underestimated the EV political football) and "Shot for the Moon" in terms of long term production estimates/goals.

Total speculation, but perhaps the $1.5B in incentives from GA made Rivian go all-in on that plant over Normal

 

[DuoRivians]

This whole "use tents" narrative that is showing up in various threads is a weird. When it's used, what I hear is that since Tesla used a desperation move like that, that is the correct and only way for an EV manufacturer to succeed. Also I hear the assumption that Rivian hasn't thought of and isn't thinking of a bridge strategy to carry them from where they are now to where they want to be in two years.

If anything, Rivian has consistently used a bootstrapping strategy for everything they've done. The Enduro motors are a great example - Rivian started off using Bosch to co-design and manufacture the QM engines. This enabled them to get to the point of shipping their initial products faster, because a major component, the motor, was outsourced. Likewise, it increased their chances of success. But the strategy had always been to bring the motor in-house, and they did that by developing the Enduro motor for the EDV. Then, when that was successful, they were able to introduce the Enduro into a new DM product in the R1 product line.

I expect Rivian will continue this process, especially with the motor. I expect they already have a new, smaller model of the Enduro designed that they can put into the existing QM in order to get the higher-powered QM that we've been hearing about, BUT ALSO to serve as the new motor in a dual motor R2. Because this new Enduro would be smaller (to fit 4 in a QM) it would also be appropriate for the smaller and less expensive R2, more so than the existing DM Enduro which would be too big for the R2.

Because the Enduro motors are being manufactured in Normal, and because I believe they will be introducing a new Enduro for the QM refresh and for the R2, they will already have this part of the R2 manufacturing up and running in Normal and proven before Georgia even opens. That's what I mean by a "bridge" between now and two years from now.

Likewise, Rivian has designed a lot of components to be common between the R1 and R2 models, and the reconfiguring of the assembly lines coming this year is planned in part to introduce these "R2" parts into the R1 line. So again, we have parts being produced for the R1 in Normal or by subcontractors that can be directly used in the R2, and they will be manufacturing these long before Georgia opens. Another bridge.

And I think people underestimate the schedule for Georgia. I think there will be buildings completed on site this year, and I think it is quite reasonable to assume that they can start configuring the assembly lines in 2025 for initial production of the R2 in late 2025, using the motors built in Normal and using the dual-use R1/R2 parts that are made in Normal (motors) or made by subcontractors. Maybe these initial vehicles are only shipped to employees again, as with the R1, but I think they will be turning out at least some vehicles in 2025.

Rivian doesn't need the entire site in Georgia to be completely finished and capable of a 200k run rate before they ship the first vehicle from Georgia. They need one assembly line up an running is all. And they can do more than one thing at the same time - working on additional lines as they produce the R2 and learn how to do it better, while also moving some manufacturing in-house. This is actually a more efficient way to do things.

Of course eventually they will want to move R2 motor production to Georgia, but it doesn't have to be moved before the R2 starts production. It DOES need to be moved to have the space for the eventual anticipated volume, but that gives them at least an extra year. And once motor production is moved to Georgia, that frees up space in Normal to increase R1 production, again leveraging their capabilities.

I would share your optimism for the GA plant if Rivian have had already broken ground and starting going vertical. Recent flyovers from mid Feb suggest they’re still working on grading.

 

[DuoRivians]

This whole "use tents" narrative that is showing up in various threads is a weird. When it's used, what I hear is that since Tesla used a desperation move like that, that is the correct and only way for an EV manufacturer to succeed. Also I hear the assumption that Rivian hasn't thought of and isn't thinking of a bridge strategy to carry them from where they are now to where they want to be in two years.

If anything, Rivian has consistently used a bootstrapping strategy for everything they've done. The Enduro motors are a great example - Rivian started off using Bosch to co-design and manufacture the QM engines. This enabled them to get to the point of shipping their initial products faster, because a major component, the motor, was outsourced. Likewise, it increased their chances of success. But the strategy had always been to bring the motor in-house, and they did that by developing the Enduro motor for the EDV. Then, when that was successful, they were able to introduce the Enduro into a new DM product in the R1 product line.

I expect Rivian will continue this process, especially with the motor. I expect they already have a new, smaller model of the Enduro designed that they can put into the existing QM in order to get the higher-powered QM that we've been hearing about, BUT ALSO to serve as the new motor in a dual motor R2. Because this new Enduro would be smaller (to fit 4 in a QM) it would also be appropriate for the smaller and less expensive R2, more so than the existing DM Enduro which would be too big for the R2.

Because the Enduro motors are being manufactured in Normal, and because I believe they will be introducing a new Enduro for the QM refresh and for the R2, they will already have this part of the R2 manufacturing up and running in Normal and proven before Georgia even opens. That's what I mean by a "bridge" between now and two years from now.

Likewise, Rivian has designed a lot of components to be common between the R1 and R2 models, and the reconfiguring of the assembly lines coming this year is planned in part to introduce these "R2" parts into the R1 line. So again, we have parts being produced for the R1 in Normal or by subcontractors that can be directly used in the R2, and they will be manufacturing these long before Georgia opens. Another bridge.

And I think people underestimate the schedule for Georgia. I think there will be buildings completed on site this year, and I think it is quite reasonable to assume that they can start configuring the assembly lines in 2025 for initial production of the R2 in late 2025, using the motors built in Normal and using the dual-use R1/R2 parts that are made in Normal (motors) or made by subcontractors. Maybe these initial vehicles are only shipped to employees again, as with the R1, but I think they will be turning out at least some vehicles in 2025.

Rivian doesn't need the entire site in Georgia to be completely finished and capable of a 200k run rate before they ship the first vehicle from Georgia. They need one assembly line up an running is all. And they can do more than one thing at the same time - working on additional lines as they produce the R2 and learn how to do it better, while also moving some manufacturing in-house. This is actually a more efficient way to do things.

Of course eventually they will want to move R2 motor production to Georgia, but it doesn't have to be moved before the R2 starts production. It DOES need to be moved to have the space for the eventual anticipated volume, but that gives them at least an extra year. And once motor production is moved to Georgia, that frees up space in Normal to increase R1 production, again leveraging their capabilities.

Sigh:

“The Illinois plant currently has an annual capacity of 150,000 vehicles and Rivian has said it intends to increase that to 200,000 by 2023 as it adds new vehicles [my emphasis: like the R2!].”

https://www.reuters.com/business/au...-least-1-mln-vehicles-before-2030-2021-11-10/

 

[COdogman]

When I did paint shop work in China, they had not poured the flooring yet for all of the building prior to us already testing and debugging our paint equipment. No bathrooms inside then either, just a shack outside with a trough. I don't think that stuff would fly here.

Don’t give Elon any ideas.

 

[mkg3]

The manufacturing robots are the long-pole.

Even if Rivian could do everything you all have discussed, the makers of manufacturing machines/robots takes time.

Rivian has to finalize the design (assuming that they have for practical purposes), they need to order and get the robots. Probably 10~12 months. So that puts in mid 2025 at the earliest.

The thing is, as DuoRivian suggests, the very act of doing this will help regain confidence with the investors.

Lets see what rabbit Rivian can pull out from a hat.

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