2023 Q3 earnings (beat) results! Rivian raises production goals

[evhelphub]

A debut isn’t going to make or break anything.

It matters how their production goes in 2025/2026.

That's what I meant. The debut does matter because the data from preorders is going to be critical to raising more money and keeping investors intrigued though.

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[SASSquatch]

Note, it’s 16,304 vehicles produced, not delivered.

To save on costs, they really need to make strides on improving SC wait times, and lowering those payments to Enterprise.

To save on costs, they need to make strides in improving QC at the factory so that Rivian stops delivering R1 vehicles with so many issues that require so many appointments at the SC's.

An ounce of QC will result in a pound of cost savings and customer satisfaction.

 

[Lisa & Bob]

I’m not concerned. Q3 probably had a lot more pre-price orders being fulfilled as R1S really ramped up. The average price is heavily influenced by the mix of pre v post price hike

We’re one of the thousands getting a lunch edition in Novembe, 2023. In the queue since early 2020. So I think we’re helping clear out the backlog. We’re still buying common shares. Hope they”ll finance a grand child’s education.

 

[chicagoair]

Rumour mill was indicating higher IIRC... but would make sense to reintroduce Explore with the Standard pack and LFP to hit that broader price spread they mentioned in the Q&A period

This part of the call was pretty confusing.

They implied lower priced trims, but were also referring to the Max Pack as a trim, then at times it implied lower priced interior treatments/packages a la Explore.

Then they started talking about trims that would raise the average sales price.

So probably both?

 

[DuoRivians]

This part of the call was pretty confusing.

They implied lower priced trims, but were also referring to the Max Pack as a trim, then at times it implied lower priced interior treatments/packages a la Explore.

Then they started talking about trims that would raise the average sales price.

So probably both?

Yeah sounded like both cheaper and more expensive options for R1. I hope Rivian doesn’t get too carried away with options, to the extent that it impedes production or build quality

 

[Zoidz]

I could be wrong but my understanding is these Q2 changes are all under the covers. It is the wiring harness, processor reductions and things like that to lower the build cost. It does not seem like there are going to be visual changes.

The NACS port is not expected from anyone until sometime in 2025 as far as I’ve seen.

Yeah, from hints that RJ has given, plus the evolution taking place in automotive networks in general, it looks like the primary Q2 change is "under the hood". Rivian, along with the rest of the industry, is likely moving from a domain model to a zonal model which reduces both harness complexity and the number of control units.

From this EETimes article:

 

[Lisa & Bob]

Yeah, from hints that RJ has given, plus the evolution taking place in automotive networks in general, it looks like the primary Q2 change is "under the hood". Rivian, along with the rest of the industry, is likely moving from a domain model to a zonal model which reduces both harness complexity and the number of control units.

From this EETimes article:

And now we need to start educating a new generation. I thought I understood some things but this presentation was a thousand feet over my head. When I recently scrolled through Rivian on eBay there was a wiring harness that was frightening to look at.

 

[Zorg]

Glad to see Rivian do better. I am wondering though whether the market for premium EV SUV/truck is there to run the plant at full capacity (150k a year I believe). They won't be able to reach positive gross margins until volume increases significantly. I wonder what their break even volume is. I love my R1T so hopefully they can get there.

 

[VSG]

Glad to see Rivian do better.

Let me nitpick - you're implying they were doing poorly up until now. But they've been consistently beating estimates since they went public. I would say I am glad they are still doing good and are still executing on track despite the inevitable unforeseen problems and economic environment.

I am wondering though whether the market for premium EV SUV/truck is there to run the plant at full capacity (150k a year I believe). They won't be able to reach positive gross margins until volume increases significantly. I wonder what their break even volume is. I love my R1T so hopefully they can get there.

Plant capacity for R1 vehicles is currently 65K, which will become 85K next year when they reconfigure the Normal plant (the rest of the 150k plant is dedicated to the EDV/RCV). Gross profit is expected to be positive in 2H24. They will reach positive gross profit with the current plant - that is not dependent upon the GA plant opening up. The R2 is a strategy for GROWTH, not a necessity for being profitable.

You don't need to be selling a million cars to be making a profit. There are many companies and many models, especially high end, which produce modest numbers but good profits. For example, Lamborghini sold less than 10k cars of all models last year, and they had a record profit.

Give Rivian some credit for researching the market and targeting a segment they knew they could compete in, as well as making a business plan with a path to profitability based on realistic projections of market segment and share.

 

[DuoRivian]

Let me nitpick - you're implying they were doing poorly up until now. But they've been consistently beating estimates since they went public. I would say I am glad they are still doing good and are still executing on track despite the inevitable unforeseen problems and economic environment.


Plant capacity for R1 vehicles is currently 65K, which will become 85K next year when they reconfigure the Normal plant (the rest of the 150k plant is dedicated to the EDV/RCV). Gross profit is expected to be positive in 2H24. They will reach positive gross profit with the current plant - that is not dependent upon the GA plant opening up. The R2 is a strategy for GROWTH, not a necessity for being profitable.

You don't need to be selling a million cars to be making a profit. There are many companies and many models, especially high end, which produce modest numbers but good profits. For example, Lamborghini sold less than 10k cars of all models last year, and they had a record profit.

Give Rivian some credit for researching the market and targeting a segment they knew they could compete in, as well as making a business plan with a path to profitability based on realistic projections of market segment and share.

It still surprises me that the factory was set up to be less than 50% R1 and even with the expansion and reorganization it will still be less than 50%.

 

[DuoRivians]

It still surprises me that the factory was set up to be less than 50% R1 and even with the expansion and reorganization it will still be less than 50%.

End of 2024, Normal plant will have 150k capacity. 85k R1 and 65K RDVs

 

[Headingley]

There are still so many pre March 1st orders in Canada. currently only BC is taking R1 delivery. A friend just received their "Confirm Order" email and they live in Alberta with their service centre in Calgary coming online late this year? But theres still a huge backlog in the Maritime Provinces, specifically Ontario, which doesn't come online until Q1 '24. So there's gonna be a pre March backlog well into the latter half of '24

I think there is a real possibility that many Canadians will not get the same vehicle they reserved. I have an LE vehicle reserved in 2020, but highly doubt I'll ever get it (I live in Manitoba). I think they will eventually stop producing LE vehicles....and I'll probably be offered a R1 equivalent at the new price (i.e. not pre-price hike). Hope I'm wrong...but it seems like many of us Canadians are just being stringed along.....maybe to keep the "orders" on the books for investor sentiment.

 

[Trandall]

I think there is a real possibility that many Canadians will not get the same vehicle they reserved. I have an LE vehicle reserved in 2020, but highly doubt I'll ever get it (I live in Manitoba). I think they will eventually stop producing LE vehicles....and I'll probably be offered a R1 equivalent at the new price (i.e. not pre-price hike). Hope I'm wrong...but it seems like many of us Canadians are just being stringed along.....maybe to keep the "orders" on the books for investor sentiment.

Preorder backlog is no longer released to investors or the public so no benefit in "stringing you along" in that regard.
To some extent the R1's have been slightly de-contented since you preordered the LE, however they have also improved in some ways. They are still phenomenal vehicles.
Rivian is still delivering early pricing builds and I think this will continue until ALL holdouts are fulfilled. I think if this changed the customer loss of trust/ hit to brand would be more costly than the cost difference. So I'd hang in ther and get a spankin' deal on a 2024 R1T/S!

 

[Florida Panhandler]

I wouldn’t be too surprised to see the Q2 24 re-configure start to introduce lower priced R1 trims including dropping the air suspension in favor of steel springs, lower motor output to the 400-500hp range, and even lower grade seat material. A $69k price point will probably be necessary as more competition comes online moving forward into 2025.

 

[jjswan33]

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