I just read where RJ was critiquing people who purchase gasoline vehicles.

[EBEG]

I mean he’s not wrong. Your big interstate gas station / travel centers still have a good business model for many decades.

But the gas stations in the middle of urban and suburban neighborhoods are going to start disappearing. Probably around the middle of next decade if my guess is correct. 80-90% of charging happens at home, so fewer public chargers are needed to begin with. And it’s well known that gas stations don’t really make money on gas, they make money on all the other crap they sell. A simple 10-20% drop in foot traffic would probably break their business model.

Not to mention that chargers are a better fit for things like coffee shops or restaurants than gas stations.

The only way out for gas station owners would be to raise prices to actually make money on gas. And that would end up accelerating the shift from gasoline.

I wouldn’t be surprised if some parts of the country start becoming challenging to get gas in by 2040. It’s still a long ways away, but it’s entirely believable.

I wish I could remember where I read it, but someone did an analysis about the right locations/density needed for chargers. Basically, McDonald's are a very close match to where chargers should be located.

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[Zorg]

Charging will not get meaningfully faster because it would cost a fortune to deploy stations that charge each car at 500KW plus. Range is fine as is. The issue is really one of infrastructure deployment.

 

[Dark-Fx]

The issue is really one of infrastructure deployment.

Maybe Rivian is planning on moving adventures closer to where their customers live?

 

[COdogman]

I wish I could remember where I read it, but someone did an analysis about the right locations/density needed for chargers. Basically, McDonald's are a very close match to where chargers should be located.

I bet EA was thinking something similar choosing Walmarts and Targets as locations. There is a Walmart within 10 miles of 90% of the population in America.

 

[Zorg]

Point is that EVs will probably never fast charge as fast as an ICE car can fill up and probably won't have a 600 mile range at highway speed (at least at a reasonavle price point). So, if that is the criteria to buy an EV, one will stay with an ICE car.

Main issue is infrastructure. Having access to charging everywhere, including at the trailhead is the biggest hurdle to transitioning.

 

[White Shadow]

I agree we aren't there yet. And so does RJ I assume. That is why he was speaking about the future. He mentioned 2030 and 10 years beyond, and I'm sure he didn't mean those as hard dates.

The sales of EVs have leveled off, probably because most available EVs are out of most people's price range currently. But infrastructure improvements are still on that rocket ship and once that is better established and there are more EVs available at every price point. ownership of those EVs will be more convenient and more folks will get on board. It's definitely more of a roller coaster than a rocket ship right now!

Sure, but he was talking about people who buy ICE vehicles today. That's where I don't agree. I'm hoping that EVs are the future and I believe they will be. But for me, ICE is still my preference. Like I said, I'll reevaluate in about 10 years.

 

[White Shadow]

Actually, you're proving RJ's point. There are cities that are restricting or outright banning non-zero emissions vehicles today (London for example). More have proposed it. Obviously none of us were alive in 1910 when gas vehicles started to really gain traction, but I guarantee it became harder and more expensive to use horses in places where vehicles became common fast. Fewer places to hitch overnight, more expensive and less available feed. Sure, horses were still used. But it's likely going to end up being a pretty good comparison if EV adoption accelerates like the auto companies are expecting it to (and honestly I see no good reason for it not to if the cart (charging) keeps accelerating like it has been). If you were a horse owner in 1920, I'm sure you had few problems doing the same thing you were doing in 1910. But in another 10 years, forget about it.

I can't speak for the rest of the world, but I can 100% assure you that gas powered cars will still be driven all over the USA 10 years from now. They aren't being banned. Again, the horse analogy is silly.

 

[COdogman]

Sure, but he was talking about people who buy ICE vehicles today. That's where I don't agree. I'm hoping that EVs are the future and I believe they will be. But for me, ICE is still my preference. Like I said, I'll reevaluate in about 10 years.

This is the comment that supposedly got everyone so worked up. He is not talking about people currently buying ICE vehicles. But even if he were, is it surprising that the CEO of an EV company thinks gasoline vehicles are out of style? I’m not sure why everyone is trying to take this so literally. But if we are going to take it literally, let’s at least have his comments correct.

Then I think the reality of buying a combustion powered vehicle, in light of the policy that’s coming, is sort of like building a horse barn in 1910. Like, imagine buying a Chevy Suburban in 2030. Like, what are you going to do with that, right? In 10 years? Yeah, like gas stations will be slowly disappearing. It’s just weird.

 

[iansriv]

I wish I could remember where I read it, but someone did an analysis about the right locations/density needed for chargers. Basically, McDonald's are a very close match to where chargers should be located.

Walmart in getting in the game. A few more things to do there compared to McD.

 

[emoore]

This is the comment that supposedly got everyone so worked up. He is not talking about people currently buying ICE vehicles. But even if he were, is it surprising that the CEO of an EV company thinks gasoline vehicles are out of style? I’m not sure why everyone is trying to take this so literally. But if we are going to take it literally, let’s at least have his comments correct.

100% agree. Anyone buying an ice car in 2030s is going to be disappointed not being able to road trip unless it’s a diesel. I can see those sticking around longer due to big trucks taking longer to electrify.

 

[White Shadow]

This is the comment that supposedly got everyone so worked up. He is not talking about people currently buying ICE vehicles. But even if he were, is it surprising that the CEO of an EV company thinks gasoline vehicles are out of style? I’m not sure why everyone is trying to take this so literally. But if we are going to take it literally, let’s at least have his comments correct.

I guess I misunderstood. I thought he said that about buying an ICE vehicle today. I probably should have read the quote before posting. Still though, I think mass adoption of EV technology is going to take longer than most forum members here....pricing is going to be crucial. Perception will also be important. If people don't think EVs will be appropriate for their lifestyle and needs, then they simply aren't going to be interested. I see a lot of that sentiment in my area and I generally agree with it. If I were to buy an EV today, it really couldn't be my only vehicle. But honestly, I have multiple cars and could easily live with one of them being an EV. I'm still choosing to wait for them to get better though....as much as I like technology, I've never been much of an early adopter.

 

[White Shadow]

100% agree. Anyone buying an ice car in 2030s is going to be disappointed not being able to road trip unless it’s a diesel. I can see those sticking around longer due to big trucks taking longer to electrify.

Surely you're kidding, right? 2030 is 7 years away. In what world do you think in 7 years that any ICE vehicle won't be able to drive coast to coast just as easily as they can today? Trust me, that's crazy talk. I can absolutely guarantee you that seven years from now ICE cars will still be the quickest way to drive across the country by a large margin just as they are today.

 

[emoore]

Surely you're kidding, right? 2030 is 7 years away. In what world do you think in 7 years that any ICE vehicle won't be able to drive coast to coast just as easily as they can today? Trust me, that's crazy talk. I can absolutely guarantee you that seven years from now ICE cars will still be the quickest way to drive across the country by a large margin just as they are today.

I didn’t say in 7 years you couldn’t drive coast to coast in an ice vehicle. the average vehicle age is 12-13 years old so if you but one in 2030 you will still be driving it in the 2040s. And by then the majority of fuel stations won’t be selling gas anymore.

 

[White Shadow]

I didn’t say in 7 years you couldn’t drive coast to coast in an ice vehicle. the average vehicle age is 12-13 years old so if you but one in 2030 you will still be driving it in the 2040s. And by then the majority of fuel stations won’t be selling gas anymore.

You said "Anyone buying an ice car in 2030s is going to be disappointed not being able to road trip..."

If I buy a new ICE car in 2030, I'm going to be able to road trip it just fine.

 

[emoore]

You said "Anyone buying an ice car in 2030s is going to be disappointed not being able to road trip..."

If I buy a new ICE car in 2030, I'm going to be able to road trip it just fine.

Guess we have to wait and see.

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