I just read where RJ was critiquing people who purchase gasoline vehicles.

[Zoidz]

And you all are correct. So let’s move on to what isn’t being discussed.
A lot of people can’t afford an electric vehicle. How are they supposed to get around?
For various and many reasons hence the surplus of new electric vehicles.

In the mid to late 80s, a personal computer cost 25-35% of the average annual income. Now it's 5% or less. The same will happen with EVs. EVs are in the 80s/90s era of personal computers. It has to start somewhere.

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[usulio]

The way I see it, in 2033 I'll consider going electric again if things have gotten significantly better, but I have my doubts about that.

What do you doubt? In the last ten years...
* EV sales are up 1,000% or more
* Tech has improved, range has doubled for the same price
* Charging infrastructure has hugely improved, 10x as many stations, more for fast charging
And it looks like these trends are accelerating now, not slowing.

 

[DuoRivians]

5% of new car sales being EVs is the tipping point for accelerated EV adoption, according to Bloomberg:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-pass-a-crucial-tipping-point-in-23-countries

 

[White Shadow]

Technology changes faster than people think. It’s called the s curve. EVs will be all over the place in 10 years. The IEA has historically gotten solar and wind adoption wrong year after year. I agree with RJ that buying an ICE car now is like buying a horse in the early 1900s

With the amount of miles I drive, I doubt I'll still be driving my new Jeep in 10 years. But if I am, I can still guarantee you that it will serve the same exact purpose in 2033 that it serves today. This whole horse analogy is silly. A horse compared to a car is animal vs machine. An ICE car vs an EV is machine against machine. Sorry, it's just a silly comparison.

 

[White Shadow]

What do you doubt? In the last ten years...
* EV sales are up 1,000% or more
* Tech has improved, range has doubled for the same price
* Charging infrastructure has hugely improved, 10x as many stations, more for fast charging
And it looks like these trends are accelerating now, not slowing.

Law of diminishing returns. Infrastructure still sucks. Range isn't going to double from today unless we see solid state battery technology become mainstream. I hope to see that at some point, but I'm not holding my breath, that's for sure. Charging times are still too long. Price of EVs are too high for mass adoption. This is a slow burn, like it or not. The vast majority of Americans are buying new ICE vehicles every single day. Those cars will average 12 to 14 years on the road. 10 years from now, the roads will still be a mix of gas and battery vehicles.

 

[Dark-Fx]

But if I am, I can still guarantee you that it will serve the same exact purpose in 2033 that it serves today

Do you think horses suddenly didn't work anymore for the purposes people bought them for?

 

[COdogman]

With the amount of miles I drive, I doubt I'll still be driving my new Jeep in 10 years. But if I am, I can still guarantee you that it will serve the same exact purpose in 2033 that it serves today. This whole horse analogy is silly. A horse compared to a car is animal vs machine. An ICE car vs an EV is machine against machine. Sorry, it's just a silly comparison.

That wasn't the point of his comment. It was about obsolescence and advancement. Of course there will still be ICE vehicles in 2030 and beyond, just like some still use a horse everyday as transportation.

RJ is simply pointing out the moment we are in right now. It's a tipping point not unlike the transition from horse transportation to motorized vehicles. It affects more than just the function of those methods.

 

[White Shadow]

Do you think horses suddenly didn't work anymore for the purposes people bought them for?

You're proving my point for me. That's why it's a silly statement.

 

[Count Orlok]

where are all the people who defend qlon by saying "who cares what he says, it's a great car?"

 

[White Shadow]

That wasn't the point of his comment. It was about obsolescence and advancement. Of course there will still be ICE vehicles in 2030 and beyond, just like some still use a horse everyday as transportation.

RJ is simply pointing out the moment we are in right now. It's a tipping point not unlike the transition from horse transportation to motorized vehicles. It affects more than just the function of those methods.

But we aren't at that point right now. Not even close. The run on EV sales happened for a few different reasons. The pool of early adopters is drying up. Government incentives seem to be drying up as well. While sales have increased for sure, the supply sitting on lots is also up, even more than ICE vehicles. Like I said, this looks like it's becoming a slow burn rather than the rocketship some people think it has become. Time will tell....

 

[COdogman]

But we aren't at that point right now. Not even close. The run on EV sales happened for a few different reasons. The pool of early adopters is drying up. Government incentives seem to be drying up as well. While sales have increased for sure, the supply sitting on lots is also up, even more than ICE vehicles. Like I said, this looks like it's becoming a slow burn rather than the rocketship some people think it has become. Time will tell....

I agree we aren't there yet. And so does RJ I assume. That is why he was speaking about the future. He mentioned 2030 and 10 years beyond, and I'm sure he didn't mean those as hard dates.

The sales of EVs have leveled off, probably because most available EVs are out of most people's price range currently. But infrastructure improvements are still on that rocket ship and once that is better established and there are more EVs available at every price point. ownership of those EVs will be more convenient and more folks will get on board. It's definitely more of a roller coaster than a rocket ship right now!

 

[Dark-Fx]

You're proving my point for me. That's why it's a silly statement.

Actually, you're proving RJ's point. There are cities that are restricting or outright banning non-zero emissions vehicles today (London for example). More have proposed it. Obviously none of us were alive in 1910 when gas vehicles started to really gain traction, but I guarantee it became harder and more expensive to use horses in places where vehicles became common fast. Fewer places to hitch overnight, more expensive and less available feed. Sure, horses were still used. But it's likely going to end up being a pretty good comparison if EV adoption accelerates like the auto companies are expecting it to (and honestly I see no good reason for it not to if the cart (charging) keeps accelerating like it has been). If you were a horse owner in 1920, I'm sure you had few problems doing the same thing you were doing in 1910. But in another 10 years, forget about it.

 

[md2023]

I think adoption will happen slower than many (and maybe RJ) expect. I think updating/improving grids, replacing energy sources, and charging infrastructure (home and public) will face many challenges, both anticipated and not (e.g., home charging will be more difficult in large cities where many people live).
But I do think adoption will continue and it's possible that in 10 years, there is little difference in cost of purchasing and ease of use between EVs and ICEs. But I think RJs language is a bit condescending and hyperbolic. I say this as a happy (second) EV owner having expensive solar panels installed (I can afford it and think it is good long term planning as well good for the environment, and something within my control).

 

[iansriv]

Everyone talking about the grid needing to be replaced being some huge stumbling block doesn't really realize the replacement of the grid has been a long time coming anyways. Most of the infrastructure is still cobbled together from the 50's and 60's at this point and is long overdue for replacement anyways. Modernizing our distribution network is a great idea that we should be doing regardless of EVs. Right now we are way to vulnerable to a bad actor taking down large swaths of our power grid.

Personally I think the climate reasons for switching to EVs are exaggerated by the government to cover for the real reasons which are strategic in nature. The tech package included with EVs has military applications for sure, and there have been articles for at least 20 years talking about how our power grid is vulnerable security wise to another nation wishing to do us harm. Either way it's a good idea to modernize our country because investing in the future of your country, and the world is how you guarantee prosperity in the future.

The climate reasons allow the government to push for all these technologies while not angering the countries we are hardening against. That's why we're seeing all these bills being targeted now at domestic production and tech advancement happening with allies. It's all strategic and I think that's a smart and good thing.

This is a sobering topic. The delay in updates is not just in the power sector. I've seen so much of that in banking it's terrible. It's incomprehensible that the greatest nation on earth is dealing with these issues.

 

[Donald Stanfield]

This is a sobering topic. The delay in updates is not just in the power sector. I've seen so much of that in banking it's terrible. It's incomprehensible that the greatest nation on earth is dealing with these issues.

It's government and corporate corruption. It won't get better until the people stop tolerating it.

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