Rivian's Future

[crashmtb]

Rivian is already going through massive issues producing cars, quality control, and communicating accurately with customers.

The amount of "RJ" you see in the replies shows just how similar Rivian is to Tesla. A startup struggling to figure out how to actually produce & sell cars, led by a charismatic figurehead that convinces people to look past the issues.

Rivian needs to get quality cars to customers in some sort of significant numbers. Until they do that, they're not doing better than anyone.

Nah. rivian is headed by an engineer with a doctorate in “how to make cars”.


Elon musk probably doesn‘t even know who Deming is. ?

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[Zoidz]

The amount of "RJ" you see in the replies shows just how similar Rivian is to Tesla. A startup struggling to figure out how to actually produce & sell cars, led by a charismatic figurehead that convinces people to look past the issues.

Similarities: CEO, Charismatic. Beyond that, they are night and day different.

Nah. rivian is headed by an engineer with a doctorate in “how to make cars”.


Elon musk probably doesn‘t even know who Deming is. ?

Deming is a crypto related to Doge, right? ?

 

[EVTrucking]

IMO (take that for what it is worth) Rivian will avoid some of Tesla's early production issues but will suffer start up/ramp up issues + current Covid induced issues just like everyone else.

There will be delays. I don't think any manufacturer of EVs is delivering or will deliver meaningful numbers of vehicles for the next 2-3 years. A select few will get them earlier because they are at the head the line but most folks will have a long wait filled with delays and uncertainties.

The demand for EVs is exponential during a period of time when there are significant shortages of everything not to mention shortages created by the high demand, such as batteries and chips.

 

[mkg3]

Nah. rivian is headed by an engineer with a doctorate in “how to make cars”.


Elon musk probably doesn‘t even know who Deming is. ?

If Elon was an engineer, he would not have accomplished what he has at all of his companies.

I say this with understanding of how risk averse engineers are by formal education and culture.

Really don't care if you like or dislike Elon, but his accomplishments are well acknowledged by the world. Deming would too, if he was still alive.

 

[crashmtb]

If Elon was an engineer, he would not have accomplished what he has at all of his companies.

I say this with understanding of how risk averse engineers are by formal education and culture.

Really don't care if you like or dislike Elon, but his accomplishments are well acknowledged by the world. Deming would too, if he was still alive.

Tesla gets things done despite their boss.
mr. Musk has accomplished what he has on the backs of and at the cost of many brilliant people.

 

[mkg3]

Tesla gets things done despite their boss.
mr. Musk has accomplished what he has on the backs of and at the cost of many brilliant people.

Tesla would be just an EV company without Elon. Probably out of business by now, if he had not come in.

There isn't a successful company that exist in the scale of Tesla, SpaceX out there without the contribution of many, many bright people out there. That's what leaders do. They lead and make thing happen.

You're letting your distaste of him cloud your views. I have met Elon years ago, and know several people that have worked for him at SpaceX. He drives people hard, without a doubt. It is what it is and you don't have to like the style. Steve Jobs was no different.

I would say Elon's best quality for leading an organization like SpaceX and Tesla is that he doesn't know any better. Ignorance is a bliss in that, unlike most engineers that have looked at the problem before and simply dismiss it as "cannot be done", Elon on the other hand simply try and try again until he gets it done. He gets best out of people by putting a ennoble cause as the leading guide and not himself.

RJ on the other hand is a MIT PhD and an engineer. Who knows if he will behave differently. We're just seeing Rivian in its infancy in terms of manufacturer. Time will tell...

 

[Trandall]

My 2 cents. Rivian's product is exceptional, in a market where demand will outpace supply for the foreseeable future. This statement if true will allow Rivian to succeed even without perfect execution. I believe Rivian will continue to put out exceptional products and with early mover advantage and some less-than-optimal, but still good, execution succeed. IMO stock price in 10 years is 12-15X IPO price. To be clear I don't think stock price outperforming the market is requisite for success, as an investor I just hope it will.

 

[Autolycus]

The amount of "RJ" you see in the replies shows just how similar Rivian is to Tesla. A startup struggling to figure out how to actually produce & sell cars, led by a charismatic figurehead that convinces people to look past the issues.

I won't speculate on the general concept of this thread, but I can't keep myself from commenting on how absurdly reductive this is to the concept of leadership. Do you study military history at all? If I started a discussion of II Corps and mentioned Patton and Bradley frequently in the discussion of II Corps during different operations, would you say it must have been exactly the same? 'cause it wasn't. Or maybe even more extreme: if I discussed the Army of Northeastern Virginia compared to its successor the Army of the Potomac and frequently mentioned McDowell, McClellan, Burnside, Hooker, and Grant, would you likewise assume that all versions of that Army were similar on the basis that I felt their leader was important to whether they succeeded or not?

 

[tk21]

Tesla isn't doing much better. Robinhood really ought to start at the DSP price of $75 if you're trying to be fair.

Totally agree on Robinhood (super annoying) but figured folks would figure out that part. Even if not taken literally, the quick hype to elongated disappointment/frustration since matches a lot of the emotions here (myself included) as we wait.

To be clear, I’m not asking for RJ to be fired - but he could/should fire his comms VP at the least when it’s clear they are failing on that front. Same for other select (not cleaning house) positions.

 

[Dark-Fx]

Really don't care if you like or dislike Elon, but his accomplishments are well acknowledged by the world.

I'll acknowledge his accomplishments when we get that 2017 Tesla that was supposed to drive across the country without human interventions.

A lot of his unconventional ideas have proven to be possible, but I have to believe that either people have a hard time telling him the truth, or he vastly overestimates their ability to succeed when they tell him they can't.

 

[Stack]

It's inevitable that they will have some issues, it's just how bad will they be. Rivian is pretty slow moving on everything so far, so my opinion is that they are less likely to big issues. Tesla may have tried to ramp up too quickly, which caused even more issues for them, so I think it's a balance. I want to hope they have a much faster production rate as I hate waiting, but I'm not holding my breath. The other end of this spectrum is that they need to start making some money, so they have to get their production figured out quickly. Time will tell...

 

[crashmtb]

Tesla would be just an EV company without Elon. Probably out of business by now, if he had not come in.

There isn't a successful company that exist in the scale of Tesla, SpaceX out there without the contribution of many, many bright people out there. That's what leaders do. They lead and make thing happen.

You're letting your distaste of him cloud your views. I have met Elon years ago, and know several people that have worked for him at SpaceX. He drives people hard, without a doubt. It is what it is and you don't have to like the style. Steve Jobs was no different.

I would say Elon's best quality for leading an organization like SpaceX and Tesla is that he doesn't know any better. Ignorance is a bliss in that, unlike most engineers that have looked at the problem before and simply dismiss it as "cannot be done", Elon on the other hand simply try and try again until he gets it done. He gets best out of people by putting a ennoble cause as the leading guide and not himself.

RJ on the other hand is a MIT PhD and an engineer. Who knows if he will behave differently. We're just seeing Rivian in its infancy in terms of manufacturer. Time will tell...

My views aren’t clouded, they’re quite clear. My distaste is for the 1800s industrialist management style.
Leaders do not“rage fire” employees...

 

[r1t_kev]

My views aren’t clouded, they’re quite clear. My distaste is for the 1800s industrialist management style.
Leaders do not“rage fire” employees...

Yeah, personally I'd rather work with/for a clear-headed PhD engineer than a loose-cannon cult of personality.

 

[the long way downunder]

I'd be interested to see facts comparing Tesla and Rivian – all we've got is opinions and assertions.

Are there any factual reports on initial quality issues, production line issues or really anything other than investor relations, communication and the bungling of the IPO – is that even the fault of Rivian as a car company or is it the nature of the (then) capital market speculators and the (now) market of selling in response to a lack of confidence in the US Govt?

 

[hed]

First I would suggest Rivian is responsible for what Rivian does, same goes for Tesla. The "whataboutism" has it's limits. If Rivian has production issues or quality issues I doubt anyone will be comforted with a "but Tesla is so much worse" argument. Or vice versa.

Most of us on this forum want Rivian to do well. It would be self defeating otherwise.
However, they have had, and arguable still do have issues.

Personally I believe the product looks solid. Great design and hopefully build quality to match. I doubt they are going to magically be that much better than Tesla out the gate on initial production. So far it hasn't panned out and the burden of proof is still on Rivian.

When I start seeing pictures and reviews of multiple deliveries on these forums and other places on the interwebs then I'll start believing production is starting to move.

With that in mind......

I agree with others it will be an uphill battle for Rivian stock until they start getting vehicles delivered. Production numbers will start to become more scrutinized the longer it takes to get the lines rolling. Once that occurs build quality and service will have their place at the table.

The price drop started for Rivn before the market started becoming soft, obviously there were stirrings of doubt about the companies ability to get trucks out to customers. Now the whole entire market is getting smacked.

There really is no accurate way to say what will happen with the stock. But I'll take a stab....I think it will bounce around $45 - $63 a share with some of that being tied to the market as a whole. That's if the market stays soft but nothing else negative happens with Rivian.

If Rivian has any more set backs in production timing, loss of top employees, etc. then I see it crashing down into the twenties.

Rivian has a product that has received positive attention but it isn't really available yet. One could argue the stock is now playing defense until production gets established. Until that time, I see little upside (unless the overall market just goes nuts) but decent potential for a lot of loss...

YMMV..... my .02.

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