Rivian's Future

[Crotchetyoldfart]

By a show of hands, how many think that Rivian will not have Tesla-like issues with ramping up production, quality control and customer service?

If you think they will have those problems, do you think the stock is worth anything like current or past values as other manufacturers switch to EVs?

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[E.S.]

Still too early to tell. Remember that Rivian is now breaking in its 4th month into production mode. Will they have Tesla's issues? No clue. But they will have 1st production issues. It's a hurdle all new companies have to face to gain production experience.

 

[kurtlikevonnegut]

I think Rivian has done a good job of avoiding a lot of the pitfalls that Tesla encountered during manufacturing ramp up and they have several advantages that Tesla didn't have (mostly ramp money and a more ready market). That said, some of those advantages are mitigated by increased competition and manufacturing challenges due to COVID.

I don't expect Rivian to have the same QA issues that Tesla had unless a major design flaw surfaces because (unlike Musk and Tesla) RJ appears to be willing to miss production goals to ensure the product meets expectations. Many of Tesla's issues were unforced errors resulting from self-imposed timeline challenges.

 

[Zoidz]

They won't have zero problems. They will have less problems, I think significantly less, compare to Tesla. Simply put, the industry is 10 years more mature than when Tesla started producing the S. Specific Reasons: RJ vs Elon, Hiring former Tesla employees who have been there/done that, more experienced subcontractors, equipment manufacturers & systems integrators.

 

[Max]

I think the only way to fight the short sellers long term is to make sure quality and word of mouth is on Rivian side. And emphasize the cool factor as market get crowded. I think RJ has been playing this right. There will be bad news and sudden drops and big players buying and selling can add to the size of the swings. I will buy at $52 and buy again at $42 and hold regardless of which direction it goes from there.

Edit: I still consider it risky until there is a good chunk of non employee happy owners are out there.

 

[mkg3]

By a show of hands, how many think that Rivian will not have Tesla-like issues with ramping up production, quality control and customer service?

If you think they will have those problems, do you think the stock is worth anything like current or past values as other manufacturers switch to EVs?

There is a saying that goes:

"You know what you know, and you don't know what you don't know."

Regardless of how many former execs they hire from Tesla and other legacy automakers, there's always unexpected issues that pops up during scale up. So they may not make the same kinds mistakes or smiliar problem Tesla faced, Rivian will have other issues that they haven't anticipated yet. Some of the issues can arise from their suppliers in addition to their own doing.

I believe the stock price is what people are willing to pay to own the stock. This is exactly why analysts have problems with TSLA share price. Stocks are supposed represent net present value of future earnings, as you may know, so even now, RIVN is overpriced. Having said that, future is significantly brighter for TSLA and RIVN than F, GM and so on; hence, the premium on the stock price.

To get to the factory capacity of 150,000/yr, they would have to produce roughly 3,000/wk and they are at 200/wk currently.

What do you think? Smooth sailing hereon out? I think not....

 

[Dark-Fx]

I've got all three hands up here.

 

[Taycanfrank]

Rivian is already going through massive issues producing cars, quality control, and communicating accurately with customers.

The amount of "RJ" you see in the replies shows just how similar Rivian is to Tesla. A startup struggling to figure out how to actually produce & sell cars, led by a charismatic figurehead that convinces people to look past the issues.

Rivian needs to get quality cars to customers in some sort of significant numbers. Until they do that, they're not doing better than anyone.

 

[Dark-Fx]

The amount of "RJ" you see in the replies shows just how similar Rivian is to Tesla.

I disagree. RJ didn't force the original founders out of the company.

 

[KiloV]

I think Rivian will have production ramp up pains, mostly due to shaky supply chain and labor market constraints. My fingers are crossed that I'm wrong and that they'll be able to scale quickly up to max production capacity.

I don't think they will have the same quality issues that Tesla has had throughout their lifespan. Rivian seems be pretty concerned about quality at this point. My only concern on this point will be once Rivian is producing at scale. Once they are producing 150,000 vehicles a year, will QC start to slip?

Pricing the stock of Rivian is a pretty hard thing. Stock prices are generally based on looking at the past performance of a company operating in a relatively stable market in order to predict future performance. A good example of this is Coca Cola. Coca Cola is a well-known product in a stable market with a long performance history. It's easy to benchmark the price for such a stock. Rivian is a brand-new company with three first-to-market products (electric pickup/full-sized SUV/last-mile delivery van) in a marketspace that's in the early stages of the most significant upheaval of that market's history. Rivian doesn't have past performance. The market is not stable. The future of the automotive market is murky at best. The conventional valuation rules don't apply here. In short, Rivian is worth what you believe it is worth. We won't know the truth until about 2030. ?‍

 

[Sean]

Based on what we've seen from reviewers, other early returns, what we know about design considerations, and how Rivian's employees talk about the product, I trust Rivian's engineering and commitment to quality.

At the same time, facing global supply chain issues and a pandemic (still!) I am worried that they have external headwinds that will slow them down.

I also, worry that they don't always feel the urgency to produce but that's a factor of RJ's more reserved style and lack of communication and they may be working harder than I realize but the problem is I don't know and can't really validate.

 

[tk21]

At least they are consistent in outcome…this follows my excitement and trust trail in Rivian since putting in my LE R1S pre-order over 2 years ago…

Despite a lot of backing of RJ on here (don’t get me wrong, he looks like a good guy), to me it all comes down to leadership. Is it tough to launch a brand and in the environment we are in, sure. However there have been several large missteps (just a few below) for Rivian that come down to leadership. At least a number of leadership folks (particularly in comms) should have been replaced by now.

- Lack of proactive and/or accurate comms
- Lack of execution and transparency in that execution to customers/stakeholders
- Significant over-promising of capability to execute (RAN, Guides, Service Center build up timelines, First Drives, etc)

I don’t consider myself a “fan boy” and definitely not a “hater” but man it’s sure frustrating holding on to this very bumpy ride…

 

[St Bernard]

I think the only way to fight the short sellers long term is to make sure quality and word of mouth is on Rivian side. And emphasize the cool factor as market get crowded. I think RJ has been playing this right. There will be bad news and sudden drops and big players buying and selling can add to the size of the swings. I will buy at $52 and buy again at $42 and hold regardless of which direction it goes from there.

Edit: I still consider it risky until there is a good chunk of non employee happy owners are out there.

The only way to fight the short sellers is to some day deliver cars. Delivering cars to customers has been a major,problem for

Based on what we've seen from reviewers, other early returns, what we know about design considerations, and how Rivian's employees talk about the product, I trust Rivian's engineering and commitment to quality.

At the same time, facing global supply chain issues and a pandemic (still!) I am worried that they have external headwinds that will slow them down.

I also, worry that they don't always feel the urgency to produce but that's a factor of RJ's more reserved style and lack of communication and they may be working harder than I realize but the problem is I don't know and can't really validate.

I agree with you. They also need a real CEO who can run the company and deal with the Stockholders. RJ could then concentrate on Manufacturing and Design. I’m expecting an announcement in Feb that there will be 2-4 month further delays while they work out production issues.

 

[moosehead]

I would like to see a strong COO hired. ASAP. Please and thank you.

 

[Dark-Fx]

At least they are consistent in outcome…this follows my excitement and trust trail in Rivian since putting in my LE R1S pre-order over 2 years ago…

Despite a lot of backing of RJ on here (don’t get me wrong, he looks like a good guy), to me it all comes down to leadership. Is it tough to launch a brand and in the environment we are in, sure. However there have been several large missteps (just a few below) for Rivian that come down to leadership. At least a number of leadership folks (particularly in comms) should have been replaced by now.

- Lack of proactive and/or accurate comms
- Lack of execution and transparency in that execution to customers/stakeholders
- Significant over-promising of capability to execute (RAN, Guides, Service Center build up timelines, First Drives, etc)

I don’t consider myself a “fan boy” and definitely not a “hater” but man it’s sure frustrating holding on to this very bumpy ride…

Tesla isn't doing much better. Robinhood really ought to start at the DSP price of $75 if you're trying to be fair.

If Rivian really is having production issues of any sort, I'd rather RJ be dealing with them right now instead of doing literally anything else. How much information was Tesla really giving out when they were struggling to get the Model 3 production rates up?

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