RIVIAN STOCK

[Eticket99]

I read today in an analysis that they expect to burn $8b by through the end of 2023. That's a big number, but the fact that after burning $8b they will still have another 10b in reserve gives me a lot of faith in their ability to get sufficient cash flow before they need to take on additional debt.

Gotta spend money to make money!!!! Just look at how long it took Tesla to become profitable.... same can be said for several Pharma/Biotech companies....

Just hope the pressure from investors doesn't force them to release cars to hit quotas and sacrifice quality like it did for Tesla....

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[NY_Rob]

He literally built a giant phallic spaceship in a semitransparent metaphorical dick-measuring contest with Musk. Buying Rivian out would be relatively mundane by comparison.

Well, I guess he lost that one.. Elon's Space Ship is bigger

 

[fbitz777]

Anyone doing a buy-write on RIVN (I did earlier in the day)?

2024 22.5 calls are $10.3 ... That is a lot of premium!

 

[140 degrees]

Interesting article in Barron's today. They point out that all of the startup EV manufacturers are declining, because it is going to be difficult to raise cash in the near future.

" The most cash, on an absolute basis, belongs to Rivian. The company ended 2021 with more than $18 billion. The company with the next-best balance is Lucid, with more than $5 billion. "

The article is behind a paywall, but in case you subscribe:
https://www.barrons.com/articles/ri...s-stock-51652114663?mod=md_stockoverview_news

LCID has 1.67B shares and RIVN has 893M, so on a per-share basis, the disparity his even greater.

I bought stock today. FWIW

 

[Jumacao]

He literally built a giant phallic spaceship in a semitransparent metaphorical dick-measuring contest with Musk. Buying Rivian out would be relatively mundane by comparison.

That, my friend, is the aforementioned "argument that could be made." I'm just saying that, from a non-M&A specialist's perspective (and looking in from the outside), I think a buyout from an existing car company with a demonstrated interest in EVs makes more sense than a buyout from Amazon.

 

[888tom888]

Once I made the decision to purchase an R1S, I believed in the company and the product. I signed up for the early access share program and made a cardinal error when I did not act in the time frame I needed to and could not get my few shares at $77 offering price. I was mad as it climbed to 150$+ and then the bottom started to fall. I am still on the sidelines but I have a buy order at $18. I have not checked if it hit that today. All we have to do is remember Tesla. It was a steal back in the day and today its off of the charts. Even Elon has to struggle to mess it up. RJ and Rivian board seems more stable. I will buy in intervals over the next 6 months. I think Rivian will come out on the other side and be a profitable company. Funny how I plan and God laughs.

 

[Jumacao]

Well, I guess he lost that one.. Elon's Space Ship is bigger

I think Elon's spaceship also has more...*ahem*...staying power, having made it all the way to the ISS and all...

 

[cardad]

Wouldn't you know it! Exactly 180 days after IPO.
It's pretty obvious Ford had a 180 waiting period before they could get it and they just dumped it all out in one day. It's actually impressive it wasn't a worse day.
I'm not saying this is a good place to buy in, valuation is still unreasonably high when compared to the industry as a whole given the production forecast, but it is a good enough place for me to get in a bit.

Ford sold 8%. Not exactly dumping it all out. Today is just classic market psychology combined with overall negative sentiment, maybe a flood of sellers with expiring lockups, and some overall worrying about what happens after earnings get announced. People get in a frenzy to go all in above $150 then don’t know to buy when the stock is $20. If you’ve been trading for a while you’re taking some gains along the way rather than pledging “faith” in the company. I wonder how many of those people are now sitting on losses rather than loading up at a discount.

 

[junkanoo]

Gotta spend money to make money!!!! Just look at how long it took Tesla to become profitable.... same can be said for several Pharma/Biotech companies....

Just hope the pressure from investors doesn't force them to release cars to hit quotas and sacrifice quality like it did for Tesla....

True ... but does pouring billions into a low-profit margin business make sense?

 

[DJG]

I read today in an analysis that they expect to burn $8b by through the end of 2023. That's a big number, but the fact that after burning $8b they will still have another 10b in reserve gives me a lot of faith in their ability to get sufficient cash flow before they need to take on additional debt.

It's a lot more than that. They will have burned through nearly all of their cash by end of 2023 and will need funding from either the debt or equity market. GA plant alone is $5b, plus service network buildout, RAN buildout and losses on all sales through 2023. Hopefully they have at least put a ceiling on their vehicle sales losses by locking in prices on all their supplies for the discounted preorders.

The hope/expectation is that they have been able to show progress/completion of production ramp in Normal, supply chain issues subsiding and continued strong demand for their products (along with stable capital market conditions).

 

[ironpig]

I made a ton of money on Tesla stock that I didn't expect. I bought in around $50 and another chunk a little higher after driving my Model S for a while and seeing the writing on the wall.

I don't think Rivian will be "another Tesla" because everyone realizes what Tesla is still overvalued despite all of their incredible and somewhat unexpected accomplishments. Unless an electric car company comes out with proprietary game changing battery technology, there is not enough too differentiate one small player from another. All car competition is EV competition now.

 

[Eticket99]

True ... but does pouring billions into a low-profit margin business make sense?

Fair point, but if someone can provide a consistent low-profit margin business... most people believe it does make sense as the terms is profit -- scale and the profit scales. We don't actually know the profit margin of Rivian's trucks, have you read any good estimates? They're on the higher/luxury end of the spectrum and historically that has more margin than lower costing vehicles.

I'd imagine that's why the business model is shifting towards subscriptions and OTA updates they can roll into cars to keep the profits coming well after a car is sold.

 

[urundai]

I just sold all my positions on Rivian, for a chunky loss. I will buy back little later but I do anticipate the sell off to continue - due to market volatility, ongoing struggle to ramp and the opening of the lockup period.

Overall, many of us were surprised this was valued higher than some of the more established and profitable traditions auto makers (who are all planning to also churn out EVs - at least, on paper).

Uncertain times and I do anticipate the stock to dive a bit more. I still believe in Rivian but it's going to take a lot more quarterly results evidence to turn this up.

 

[SANZC02]

I just sold all my positions on Rivian, for a chunky loss. I will buy back little later but I do anticipate the sell off to continue - due to market volatility, ongoing struggle to ramp and the opening of the lockup period.

Overall, many of us were surprised this was valued higher than some of the more established and profitable traditions auto makers (who are all planning to also churn out EVs - at least, on paper).

Uncertain times and I do anticipate the stock to dive a bit more. I still believe in Rivian but it's going to take a lot more quarterly results evidence to turn this up.

That’s odd, never really bought into the buy hi and sell low philosophy. Hopefully you needed the loss to offset some other gains.

I only buy hi risk stock like this with play money I can afford to lose. Once I purchase the stock I just let it sit and play out. I have purchased additional shares to lower my ASP but will not look at selling for a few years.

 

[urundai]

That’s odd, never really bought into the buy hi and sell low philosophy. Hopefully you needed the loss to offset some other gains.

I only buy hi risk stock like this with play money I can afford to lose. Once I purchase the stock I just let it sit and play out. I have purchased additional shares to lower my ASP but will not look at selling for a few years.

I will buy again but expect this to hit low teens in the coming weeks.

Kind of sell low, buy lower strategy.

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