R2 Launch Edition expectations

[carsly]

Since the $100 is refundable, all we can do is cancel or wait to see how it plays out. I put down my deposit on a Cybertruck that was supposed to get over 500 miles of range for $80k but when the price went up by another $40k and the range dropped to 300 miles, I got my money back. Since I really hope for Rivian to succeed, I don't mind giving them some time to provide a more affordable vehicle that is so compelling as the R2 and even if the LE isn't in the cards for me I'll see what is when that time comes.

LOL, inflation happened. Blame both political parties for recklessly printing dollars like they were going out of style to cover massive deficits since no one wants to reduce Federal spending - not enough votes in being fiscally responsible.

As for Cybertruck range, don't be duped by the media. I have regularly gotten 350+ miles in my Cybertruck AWD on 35" all terrain tires at highway speeds. Going 45mph on street tires I with the RWD Standard (RIP) I have no doubt it could break 400 miles with 123kwh of batteries.

As for Rivian, keep in mind inflation hasn't ebbed, if anything it's been accelerating recently. Meaning that $45K 2WD vehicle out sometime in the second half of 2027 will likely be closer to $50K with inflation and destination before taxes and fees. If Rivian feels that they need to hit a price point then expect battery capacity to get reduced, much like it was with R1 Gen 2 where the "Large" pack got cut from 131kwh to 109kwh. The result, necessarily, is less range in the real world.

Sponsored

 

[Gen(R3)Xer]

Since the $100 is refundable, all we can do is cancel or wait to see how it plays out. I put down my deposit on a Cybertruck that was supposed to get over 500 miles of range for $80k but when the price went up by another $40k and the range dropped to 300 miles, I got my money back. Since I really hope for Rivian to succeed, I don't mind giving them some time to provide a more affordable vehicle that is so compelling as the R2 and even if the LE isn't in the cards for me I'll see what is when that time comes.

I was a fan of the CT at first, but it took 7 years to release and as you mentioned Tesla really missed the mark (cost, range, not a true exoskeleton, too many recalls, crazy ass CEO that became politically toxic, etc.) I think CEOs in general need to stop promising specs, features, and pricing of future products years in advance. It doesn’t end well.

I’m also waiting for a more affordable R2. Plus my current Model 3 lease isn’t up until next year and I’m hoping they’ll buy it out. I would also hope the lease deals are better on the Premium and Standard models. If not I’ll be leasing something else and waiting on the R3 like I originally planned.

 

[Jeremy3292]

LOL, inflation happened. Blame both political parties for recklessly printing dollars like they were going out of style to cover massive deficits since no one wants to reduce Federal spending - not enough votes in being fiscally responsible.

This x1000.

No such thing as being fiscally responsibly in government or even an appearance of it anymore. We're doomed by both parties in the next 5-10 years. We argue about stupid stuff while the feds keep printing and the deficit hits $40T. Can't tax the rich our way out of trillions of dollars of debt. Getting $500 billion from the rich one time, even if possible which it's likely not, is literally nothing when we have $1T in interest annually on our debt - not including anything else we spend money on, just interest. Expect a 5% VAT coming in the 2030s like Europe. The middle class will be hit hard. No doubt about that to those of us paying attention...

 

[BCondrey]

RJ said recently in an interview that 20 hours after they opened the reservation window on March 7, 2024, they had 70,000 reservations. They have not released the total number, but it has to be well north of 100,000. You can draw a lot of conclusions from that.

 

[Great Gatsby]

RJ said recently in an interview that 20 hours after they opened the reservation window on March 7, 2024, they had 70,000 reservations. They have not released the total number, but it has to be well north of 100,000. You can draw a lot of conclusions from that.

I'd imagine a good portion of those are waiting for the $45k model, if not the premium at most. Also have to factor in those who prefer to wait on Lidar. Those who got another vehicle in the meantime. And those who cancelled for whatever other reason. Reservations do not equal orders.

 

[carsly]

RJ said recently in an interview that 20 hours after they opened the reservation window on March 7, 2024, they had 70,000 reservations. They have not released the total number, but it has to be well north of 100,000. You can draw a lot of conclusions from that.

at a 10% reservation to filled order rate, which would be quite high, that represents 10,000 units. And it's quite possible, if not likely, that the majority of those will be for the Standard and Premium trims. rough mathing, if 30% fulfill for Launch Edition, which would be incredible high, that's 3,000 Launch Edition vehicles. Should be done with those around August/September.

 

[JeffnReno]

LOL, inflation happened. Blame both political parties for recklessly printing dollars like they were going out of style to cover massive deficits since no one wants to reduce Federal spending - not enough votes in being fiscally responsible.

As for Cybertruck range, don't be duped by the media. I have regularly gotten 350+ miles in my Cybertruck AWD on 35" all terrain tires at highway speeds. Going 45mph on street tires I with the RWD Standard (RIP) I have no doubt it could break 400 miles with 123kwh of batteries.

As for Rivian, keep in mind inflation hasn't ebbed, if anything it's been accelerating recently. Meaning that $45K 2WD vehicle out sometime in the second half of 2027 will likely be closer to $50K with inflation and destination before taxes and fees. If Rivian feels that they need to hit a price point then expect battery capacity to get reduced, much like it was with R1 Gen 2 where the "Large" pack got cut from 131kwh to 109kwh. The result, necessarily, is less range in the real world.

I didn't cancel my deposit right away since I was hoping that other variants would be more appealing to my budget but after measuring my garage and realizing that I would have to either park it outside or get rid of my work bench. I decided that the Model Y works fine for towing our popup camper and if I need to haul stuff rarely, Uhaul trailer rentals are reasonable compared to owning a full size truck full time that's not really needed.

 

[Count Orlok]

Am I wrong to think with the high number of reservations placed in relation to the production numbers ramping up, my chances of ever getting a R2 Launch edition are slim/none since I just put down my $100 on 6/12/26?

depends. Is your first name Kyle?

 

[Zathras]

I don't think even Rivian knows how many they will make, but on context clues, you could still get a launch edition IMO.

Based on my impressions from talking to people and at showrooms, most folks are waiting for the cheaper models. I don't blame them, either, as not everyone is really looking for 650hp and at this price point, sticking to a budget is important. I'd stay cautiously optimistic for a LE.

If it doesn't work out, then you might as well just wait for the lidar vehicles with the new chips to come out and save some money and go with the premium trim. If I had the patience, this would be my route.

That’s been my thinking since I drove an R2 last week and decided I wanted the Launch Edition.

I recently picked one with Esker Silver as a favorite (heart at the top) and I got an email saying, “You have good taste….” And saying things that makes me think I’ll get one. Fingers crossed. But either way, no bad choices.

 

[Dark-Fx]

depends. Is your first name Kyle?

Kyle was already frustrated that he didn't get his yet. Apparently Rivian is not letting influencers jump the line this time.

 

[Count Orlok]

Kyle was already frustrated that he didn't get his yet. Apparently Rivian is not letting influencers jump the line this time.

Doesn't RJ know who he is!!!! LOL

 

[DuoRivian]

Doesn't RJ know who he is!!!! LOL

He does, hence the delay in him getting his

 

[Tony S]

Smart move for Rivian is to run the entire list of people who want Launch Editions and pump out as many as they can because until a Trimotor is available, this is the most expensive (read highest margin) trim and maximizing units of this trim level accelerates fixed cost recovery which in turn accelerates the ability to offer lower trim levels in the future.

So if you want a Launch Edition, place an order (even today) and odds are you'll be invited to purchase one before the end of this year and long before Rivian stops producing them.

Also quite likely that the R2 Shop launches late summer/early fall as most high intent reservation holder fulfill orders in the next 6-8 weeks and then 'built to inventory' Launch Edition vehicles show up for immediate purchase online.

Keep in mind, at some point in the months ahead the play for some folks will be to wait on RAP1 and LiDAR in Gen 3 instead of purchasing a "last generation" R2. Even if you don't care about autonomy, those will hold a higher resale value than these early R2's which might have a secondary market pop in the next few months as Rivian is supply-constrained but then drop precipitously in value once inventory vehicles start populating online.

If this waiting game drags on to ‘27, then I’d much rather wait for Gen3 (probably insist on). Not sure how long can one wait to order after receiving invitation to.

 

[Jeremy3292]

Kyle was already frustrated that he didn't get his yet. Apparently Rivian is not letting influencers jump the line this time.

To be fair all those influencers have day 1 reservations also. They're not jumping the line; they’re in the front.

 

[Jeremy3292]

at a 10% reservation to filled order rate, which would be quite high, that represents 10,000 units. And it's quite possible, if not likely, that the majority of those will be for the Standard and Premium trims. rough mathing, if 30% fulfill for Launch Edition, which would be incredible high, that's 3,000 Launch Edition vehicles. Should be done with those around August/September.

Based on anecdotal evidence, the take rate is very low currently, especially without all the options even being available yet for $60k. This isn't a problem bc it seems like production is also (obviously) low as well. It will come to a head shortly once they get all the options released and production ramps. The real crunch will be once the premium trim is released and possible Gen3 autonomy chipset also.

I think there are A LOT of people waiting to order for all sorts of various reasons - price, trim, Gen3 autonomy, color, options, lease pricing, etc...not to mention those who are disappointed in the lack of FM radio canceling their order entirely!

Sponsored