R2 Delayed?

[Just Passing By]

This is what RJ said in an interview with The Verge, published on Oct 6, 2025.

Verge interviewer question: "And when does it [R2] come out?"
RJ answer: "We start deliveries in the first half of next year, which means we have to start building what we call saleable units in the early part of next year. We’re right now in what we call a validation phase. So we’re building vehicles, we’re camouflaging them, driving them on public roads. We begin running all of our manufacturing validation builds, so running vehicles through our plant on production equipment and production process later this year. In the early part of next year, we’ll transition from non-saleable units. We built a few hundred of those, which we consume internally, to then units that are saleable to consumers. So yeah, the early part of next year."

Rivian start building saleable units "the early part of next year [2026]" Early has to mean 1Q26, 2Q26 is not early in the year. It would be an incredibly slow ramp if none of those 1Q26 produced saleable units are in customer hands before 3Q26. So deliveries start in 2Q26. Rivian might even be targeting a token customer delivery late 1Q26.

Previously I posted a hypothetical R2 ramp of 3k in 2Q, 7k in 3Q and 15k in 4Q to try to ground some of the comments. If Rivian were actually planning on these numbers then it would be a spectacularly unambitious target ramp, given that this is how they ramped R1/EDV production during COVID.

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[DuoRivian]

This is what RJ said in an interview with The Verge, published on Oct 6, 2025.

Verge interviewer question: "And when does it [R2] come out?"
RJ answer: "We start deliveries in the first half of next year, which means we have to start building what we call saleable units in the early part of next year. We’re right now in what we call a validation phase. So we’re building vehicles, we’re camouflaging them, driving them on public roads. We begin running all of our manufacturing validation builds, so running vehicles through our plant on production equipment and production process later this year. In the early part of next year, we’ll transition from non-saleable units. We built a few hundred of those, which we consume internally, to then units that are saleable to consumers. So yeah, the early part of next year."

Rivian start building saleable units "the early part of next year [2026]" Early has to mean 1Q26, 2Q26 is not early in the year. It would be an incredibly slow ramp if none of those 1Q26 produced saleable units are in customer hands before 3Q26. So deliveries start in 2Q26. Rivian might even be targeting a token customer delivery late 1Q26.

Previously I posted a hypothetical R2 ramp of 3k in 2Q, 7k in 3Q and 15k in 4Q to try to ground some of the comments. If Rivian were actually planning on these numbers then it would be a spectacularly unambitious target ramp, given that this is how they ramped R1/EDV production during COVID.

Thanks for the sources, this confirms hundreds have indeed been built (contrary to some armchair non Rivian employee commentators). I agree Q1 for start of real production and given the R2 is simpler than the R1, we don’t have a pandemic and they have more experience then it is reasonable to expect a faster ramp.

 

[sparked]

Thanks for the sources, this confirms hundreds have indeed been built (contrary to some armchair non Rivian employee commentators). I agree Q1 for start of real production and given the R2 is simpler than the R1, we don’t have a pandemic and they have more experience then it is reasonable to expect a faster ramp.

Rivian posted about the pilot line in California in September: https://stories.rivian.com/r2-final-validation-builds-2025

In recent weeks, more and more R2 vehicles have been out in the wild eating up miles, as hundreds of production-intent builds come off our pilot line.

 

[Gen(R3)Xer]

This is what RJ said in an interview with The Verge, published on Oct 6, 2025.

Verge interviewer question: "And when does it [R2] come out?"
RJ answer: "We start deliveries in the first half of next year, which means we have to start building what we call saleable units in the early part of next year. We’re right now in what we call a validation phase. So we’re building vehicles, we’re camouflaging them, driving them on public roads. We begin running all of our manufacturing validation builds, so running vehicles through our plant on production equipment and production process later this year. In the early part of next year, we’ll transition from non-saleable units. We built a few hundred of those, which we consume internally, to then units that are saleable to consumers. So yeah, the early part of next year."

Rivian start building saleable units "the early part of next year [2026]" Early has to mean 1Q26, 2Q26 is not early in the year. It would be an incredibly slow ramp if none of those 1Q26 produced saleable units are in customer hands before 3Q26. So deliveries start in 2Q26. Rivian might even be targeting a token customer delivery late 1Q26.

Previously I posted a hypothetical R2 ramp of 3k in 2Q, 7k in 3Q and 15k in 4Q to try to ground some of the comments. If Rivian were actually planning on these numbers then it would be a spectacularly unambitious target ramp, given that this is how they ramped R1/EDV production during COVID.

R2 production is definitely not going to be as slow or low as R1 production from six years ago, but I don’t think they’re going to churn out 155,000 vehicles by the end of 2026.

I could be wrong, but what’s a realistic reservation to delivery percentage? Do we even know how many people have preorders or which trim they all want? I think offering a generously-equipped dual motor launch edition is a good idea. Perhaps it will be $55K?

I want Rivian to take their time and get things right. There’s a lot going against them AGAIN, especially with the $7,500 tax credit being eliminated, EV adoption slowing in the US, other companies focusing on hybrids and EREVs, to my knowledge Rivian not being in a position to export until they get the Georgia plant online, and the launch edition is not going to be $45K.

I’m rooting for them.

 

[Just Passing By]

I could be wrong, but what’s a realistic reservation to delivery percentage? Do we even know how many people have preorders or which trim they all want?

Does it matter though? Reservations are just a fully refundable placeholder in a list. The reported Cybertruck reservation-to-sales conversions at ~5% illustrates the lack of value in trying to interpret what reservations might or might not predict. Its possible that R2 might generate significant demand from customers with no reservation. The recent BMW iX3 launch in Europe and reported comments from one of their execs that 2026 Euro production is nearly sold out illustrate high demand at least in Europe for BEVs with attractive specs, perceived value and AFAIK no reservations.

EV adoption slowing in the US

There have been many reports about this but it seems a bit too early to tell how the US market will behave because 1Q-3Q25 boosted demand to record levels due to the expiring credits. Low 4Q25 sales would logically reflect the pull forward in purchases that was created by this. I wouldn't be surprised if that pull forward affected 1Q26 too. So jury's out at the moment IMO regarding longer term trends ... and a slowing rate of growth is still a market shipping an increasing number of cars each year, so demand is still increasing.

other companies focusing on hybrids and EREVs

This seems both an opportunity for Rivian and other BEV manufacturers, and a mistake by the auto manufacturers pulling back from BEVs, if they are actually doing what they say they're doing. The major auto manufacturers famously cancelled their order backlogs at the start of COVID, only to face increased demand having lost their place in the line from their suppliers. I suspect pulling back from BEVs may be a similar misread of the market.

Rivian not being in a position to export until they get the Georgia plant online

I suspect they have a contingency plan to support Europe from Normal rather than wait until Georgia is finished, in case the US market and/or R2 demand are lower than Rivian's ability to produce. I thought I caught some hint about European sales supported from Normal in something RJ said recently but I cannot recall where/when I heard it. Probably not an immediate concern for them though.

and the launch edition is not going to be $45K

Very positive reception to the BMW iX3 50 at $60k in the US and similar price points in Europe demonstrates that price needs to be considered in the context of what is being offered wrt demand.

 

[M3_R2]

Given all the extra taxes in Europe, it's surprising the iX3 is almost sold out already. I guess solid reviews will do that but I see 5 year ownership costs as being on the high end. Much higher than an R2. Probably on par with an R1S. And for all that, you won't have a supercharger friendly vehicle like the R2 provides.

People that buy EV's and then return to ICE, cite charging issues as their #1 issue that drove them back. And of those that do, the vast majority purchased an EV that was not supercharger friendly.

If the iX3 had a charge port that was SC friendly, I would probably buy one despite the costs but for now, I'll continue holding out for a non-tariff R2 some year or by then the RX3 should be available. BMW dealers in NA are taking private reservations for the iX3 and have been for some time now. You will probably be lucky to even get one this year if ordering from the configurator when it goes live.

I think the Cybertruck was an outlier. I see the R2 reservations converting to a sell-out this year for sure and possibly 2027 as well. But that's just my reading of the tea leaves.

 

[sparked]

If the iX3 had a charge port that was SC friendly, I would probably buy one despite the costs.

The IX3 has a NACS port so why wouldn't it be supercharger friendly? It will have 800 volt charging so it may benefit from faster charging at other locations, but that's only because Tesla hasn't upgraded it's older charging network fast enough to V4 charging.

The only limitation would be V2 stalls that are currently Tesla only due to being so old and needing an upgrade.

 

[DuoRivian]

Given all the extra taxes in Europe, it's surprising the iX3 is almost sold out already. I guess solid reviews will do that but I see 5 year ownership costs as being on the high end. Much higher than an R2. Probably on par with an R1S. And for all that, you won't have a supercharger friendly vehicle like the R2 provides.

People that buy EV's and then return to ICE, cite charging issues as their #1 issue that drove them back. And of those that do, the vast majority purchased an EV that was not supercharger friendly.

If the iX3 had a charge port that was SC friendly, I would probably buy one despite the costs but for now, I'll continue holding out for a non-tariff R2 some year or by then the RX3 should be available. BMW dealers in NA are taking private reservations for the iX3 and have been for some time now. You will probably be lucky to even get one this year if ordering from the configurator when it goes live.

I think the Cybertruck was an outlier. I see the R2 reservations converting to a sell-out this year for sure and possibly 2027 as well. But that's just my reading of the tea leaves.

The iX3 will have NACS and even without it you can use an adapter and take advantage of 400kWh charging will a large range.

 

[M3_R2]

Yes, NACS is a given but unfortunately, no V4 SC's (or V3's with a longer cable) in my area or on my preferred trip routes. One will go live soon just east of Toronto but would be a detour into congestion to use it. And most CCS on my route only exist in small batches which I don't trust much with family and a dog. The iX3 in Europe has easy charging options and likely sells most to favorable company leases. If it sells out in NA, hopefully that sends a clear message to the rest of the industry. As a vehicle I'd like to own for 5+ years, I have my concerns about cost of ownership over that time frame but it looks to be a winner.

I have no desire to take up 2 stalls at a SC location. So it's either another Tesla for me or wait for an R2 or Scout when tarrifs are removed. Or do nothing and wait for the SC's to be converted. Oh well. All these issues will soon be in the rear view mirror.

 

[VandalSibs]

Yes, NACS is a given but unfortunately, no V4 SC's (or V3's with a longer cable) in my area or on my preferred trip routes. One will go live soon just east of Toronto but would be a detour into congestion to use it. And most CCS on my route only exist in small batches which I don't trust much with family and a dog. The iX3 in Europe has easy charging options and likely sells most to favorable company leases. If it sells out in NA, hopefully that sends a clear message to the rest of the industry. As a vehicle I'd like to own for 5+ years, I have my concerns about cost of ownership over that time frame but it looks to be a winner.
I have no desire to take up 2 stalls at a SC location. So it's either another Tesla for me or wait for an R2 or Scout when tarrifs are removed. Or do nothing and wait for the SC's to be converted. Oh well. All these issues will soon be in the rear view mirror.

Many Superchargers have had their spots re-striped so that the individual stalls are not centered on the charger pedestal, which means you don't have to take up two spaces anymore. And new locations are either the V4 stall with the longer cords, or are V3, but set up so that spacing works better for non-Teslas.

 

[M3_R2]

Interesting. And admittedly, I haven't been to a SC in a while. But I'm not hearing of anything related to re-striping in my area. Would be very encouraging though!

 

[TimK]

Interesting. And admittedly, I haven't been to a SC in a while. But I'm not hearing of anything related to re-striping in my area. Would be very encouraging though!

I just completed a round trip from Chicago, IL to Sebastian, FL and I saw many of the newer SCs set up to accommodate non Tesla charging. Some pedestals were centered on the stall. Some were set up as pull through or some had a mix.

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