Factory production floor - recent look

[GaryL]

Just for a point of reference

https://insideevs.com/news/562065/tesla-giga-texas-look-inside/

One companies stock is tanking
One companies stock is not

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[ads75]

Just for a point of reference

https://insideevs.com/news/562065/tesla-giga-texas-look-inside/

One companies stock is tanking
One companies stock is not

One is much more established than the other. And Rivian's is much closer to what Rivian, and the bankers, thought they were worth during the IPO, which was only a few moths ago. Speculators and internet hype is what made it rocket up initially. If Rivian, and the bankers, thought they were worth a $150/share at IPO, they would have priced it that way.

 

[RideAlong]

It looks so amazing and active ! So why aren't more of these things actually coming off the line and delivered into the hands of the 70k + waiting list ? Something doesn't add up. Something ain't right.

 

[intimidator]

Just for a point of reference

https://insideevs.com/news/562065/tesla-giga-texas-look-inside/

One companies stock is tanking
One companies stock is not

Rivian stock is not technically tanking. It IPO-ed at $78 a share (that temporary shot up to $170 was just Wall St bubble mania).

Now I will agree that $78 was too high for what Rivian has accomplished so far. So the stock is drifting down, as it should. HIGH IPO prices don't last. Rivian stock will float down to a price investors feel represents the true value of all outstanding shares (which is more important than share price)

And it is true Tesla started building and delivering vehicles many many years ago, and Rivian just started. So Tesla is a much more mature company. 15 years or so. While Rivian is like a new born deer trying to stand on its legs for the first time.

Hope in 5 years Rivian is going strong and has built up its employees, customer service, service centers and charging network.

 

[Craigins]

Rivian stock is not technically tanking. It IPO-ed at $78 a share (that temporary shot up to $170 was just Wall St bubble mania).

Now I will agree that $78 was too high for what Rivian has accomplished so far. So the stock is drifting down, as it should. HIGH IPO prices don't last. Rivian stock will float down to a price investors feel represents the true value of all outstanding shares (which is more important than share price)

And it is true Tesla started building and delivering vehicles many many years ago, and Rivian just started. So Tesla is a much more mature company. 15 years or so. While Rivian is like a new born deer trying to stand on its legs for the first time.

Hope in 5 years Rivian is going strong and has built up its employees, customer service, service centers and charging network.

the better comparison is Lucid vs Rivian. Lucid is retaining its value much better than Rivian. I'm not sure there's a way to come up with logic that could dictate Lucid having a higher market cap than Rivian.

 

[intimidator]

It looks so amazing and active ! So why aren't more of these things actually coming off the line and delivered into the hands of the 70k + waiting list ? Something doesn't add up. Something ain't right.

That is a head scratcher.

I think the answer is that they are diverting at last half their man power and factory capacity to building delivery trucks for Amazon. Maybe it is more.

We should find out during the next earnings report filings to the SEC. They will have to disclose how many R1Ts and R1Ss and Amazon trucks they built.

 

[intimidator]

the better comparison is Lucid vs Rivian. Lucid is retaining its value much better than Rivian. I'm not sure there's a way to come up with logic that could dictate Lucid having a higher market cap than Rivian.

Two things.

One is share price.

Lucid was at $55 a share in November. Today it is at $36. So it has taken a big drop also.

Rivian was at $78 a share in November, now it is at $60.

Two, and the the most important thing, is how many outstanding shares are there.

Lucid has 1.65 Billion, with a B, outstanding.
Rivian has 883 million shares outstanding.

Multiple 1,650,000,000 shares x the share price = $59 Billion valuation
Multiple 883,000,000 shares x the share price = $52 Billion valuation

So they are worth about the same, even though one stock is $36 and one is $60

Honestly unless both crank up and start DELIVERING a lot more vehicles, the share price (valuation) might need to come down more.

And I agree, I don't see how Lucid is valued more than Rivian. Unless investors secretly think Lucid has developed some proprietary battery tech that is worth a ton of money. In a rational world both these companies might be worth $20 billion?

Right now Rivian is worth more than Honda? Kimberly-Clark? Dollar General? VMware? Hershey? IDK. Something is out of whack.

 

[Craigins]

Two things.

One is share price.

Lucid was at $55 a share in November. Today it is at $36. So it has taken a big drop also.

Rivian was at $78 a share in November, now it is at $60.

Two, and the the most important thing, is how many outstanding shares are there.

Lucid has 1.65 Billion, with a B, outstanding.
Rivian has 883 million shares outstanding.

Multiple 1,650,000,000 shares x the share price = $59 Billion valuation
Multiple 883,000,000 shares x the share price = $52 Billion valuation

So they are worth about the same, even though one stock is $36 and one is $60

Honestly unless both crank up and start DELIVERING a lot more vehicles, the share price (valuation) might need to come down more.

And I agree, I don't see how Lucid is valued more than Rivian. Unless investors secretly think Lucid has developed some proprietary battery tech that is worth a ton of money. In a rational world both these companies might be worth $20 billion?

Right now Rivian is worth more than Honda? Kimberly-Clark? Dollar General? VMware? Hershey? IDK. Something is out of whack.

Yes I'm just looking at the valuation, so shares * price.

Then just consider potential future. Lucid has a higher valuation. They have delivered fewer vehicles, and are entering a market with established competition. They also have a low number of preorders.

So compare Lucids future outlook compared to Rivian, and then compare current valuations. It doesn't make sense. One could argue that Lucid is just over valued at this point, but in the day to day swing, lucid seems to be 2-3% ahead of rivian.

 

[mkg3]

Yes I'm just looking at the valuation, so shares * price.

Then just consider potential future. Lucid has a higher valuation. They have delivered fewer vehicles, and are entering a market with established competition. They also have a low number of preorders.

So compare Lucids future outlook compared to Rivian, and then compare current valuations. It doesn't make sense. One could argue that Lucid is just over valued at this point, but in the day to day swing, lucid seems to be 2-3% ahead of rivian.

You clearly noted that you were comparing enterprise value and not share price. That said the only explanation I can think of at this point is that there are higher risks in Rivian's roadmap and GM/Ford competition whereas neither GM or Ford are in "sedan" business any longer for all practical purposes.

What I find always interesting about so called experts and analysts are that they compare apples to oranges just because both are fruits. In other words, comparing Rivian with any legacy auto maker with all the liabilities (dominant ICE sales, pension, union, existing infrastructure and their efficiencies, and opportunistic dealer networks) to a clean sheet like Tesla, Lucid and Rivian. The latter are all direct sales model, only EVs, no union, new efficient infrastructure and no pension liability.

And, big AND, they think EVs are somehow a different market than autos in general. They keep talking about how EV completion is heating up as though the pie is the fixed EV market size. NO, its the entire auto market pie size and EV pie is getting larger. The comparison needs to be how quickly EVs are going take sales away from ICE vehicles.

Just to finish the Rivian vs Lucid comparison, I believe Peter Lawson is a better marketeer than RJ and more experienced working with analysts on the street. While Rivian has rocketed up and now arguably crashed and burned, Lucid also took off to around $50/share twice but both times just had a rough landing thus far. The upcoming earnings report for Lucid may change the support for Lucid now that Air is delivering. Expectations are higher, just as Rivian's too.

 

[AdamsFan1983]

" Supply and return air ductwork with #knauf fiberglass board and white ASJ. Overtime, spec changes and sub zero temperatures haven’t stopped the guys from knocking this one out

#heatandfrostinsulators #union #unioninsulator" ~Prime Insulation LLC @ Rivian in Normal

 

[AllInev]

For those visiting this thread hoping to see a picture of the Rivian factory floor.

Feel free to add other public photos.

 

[AdamsFan1983]

Fwiw, I tried to protect posters anonymity:

 

[kurtlikevonnegut]

Fwiw, I tried to protect posters anonymity:

Even Dr. Manhattan got his Rivian before me?

 

[AllInev]

Factory floor

 

[Babbuino]

Fwiw, I tried to protect posters anonymity:

Now they know that they are looking for a blue guy, robust build, ~5'10" that may be wearing a hat... ohhh they'll catch him

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