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Mark_AZR1T

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If true, this signals a challenging—but not insurmountable—moment for Rivian. A $2B high-yield bond deal to refinance debt due next year means a riskier set of borrowing costs (10% yield bonds). Not ideal.

Combine that with tariff pressures and the fact that U.S.-sourced batteries for the R2 won’t be ready until late 2026 or early 2027, and it raises real questions about how pricing will be maintained...
 
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Donald Stanfield

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Wall Street won't like this. I recently sold my Rivian holdings for a small profit when they were up to 17 per share last week. Looks like I'll be buying back in sooner rather than later.
 

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Good to see Rivian try to raise more money. That said, I’m a bit gun shy now of the stock.

I used to own a lot of $rivn stock, but I’ve sold them all. With the cancellation of the $7500 IRA tax credit, tariffs making global trade more favorable toward China, and Chinese EV tech getting better even faster (than U.S. now), I don’t think Rivian has a large enough market opportunity now.

Basically, Rivian can only really sell to the US market, because Chinese EVs will be far better and cheaper globally. For example, I can see Europe providing protections for their local EV manufacturers to protect jobs. But for imports, why not just import Chinese EVs? They’ll be cheaper and far better, eg 1MW charging capability.

For the U.S. market, Rivian has to compete with pretty good OEMs in EVs now, like Hyundai/Kia, GM, and even Toyota—yes, I know about their bz4x. But their new bz line is looking pretty good and reasonably priced.

On top of it all, Rivian’s $6B DOE loan isn’t on solid footing anymore. So, any and all money they can raise is good. I think Rivian will eventually need to raise cash via another equity offering.

Yes, I squarely blame Trump and his admin for not only making EVs more expensive in the U.S. (without the tax credit) but also setting US EV tech back relative to China.

So, unless the macro picture changes or $rivn becomes much cheaper, I’m out of the stock.
 

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Good to see Rivian try to raise more money. That said, I’m a bit gun shy now of the stock.

I used to own a lot of $rivn stock, but I’ve sold them all. With the cancellation of the $7500 IRA tax credit, tariffs making global trade more favorable toward China, and Chinese EV tech getting better even faster (than U.S. now), I don’t think Rivian has a large enough market opportunity now.

Basically, Rivian can only really sell to the US market, because Chinese EVs will be far better and cheaper globally. For example, I can see Europe providing protections for their local EV manufacturers to protect jobs. But for imports, why not just import Chinese EVs? They’ll be cheaper and far better, eg 1MW charging capability.

For the U.S. market, Rivian has to compete with pretty good OEMs in EVs now, like Hyundai/Kia, GM, and even Toyota—yes, I know about their bz4x. But their new bz line is looking pretty good and reasonably priced.

On top of it all, Rivian’s $6B DOE loan isn’t on solid footing anymore. So, any and all money they can raise is good. I think Rivian will eventually need to raise cash via another equity offering.

Yes, I squarely blame Trump and his admin for not only making EVs more expensive in the U.S. (without the tax credit) but also setting US EV tech back relative to China.

So, unless the macro picture changes or $rivn becomes much cheaper, I’m out of the stock.
I was going to buy some Monday with the purpose of selling more covered calls (others since exercised) but I read this on Schwab, decided to wait until I see what the market thinks of it. And, how the debt will be priced in the market at 10%.
 

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I would rather see Rivian raise cash now while they still have their brand name and access to liquidity.

10% rates are not great but keep in mind mortgages which are asset backed are running ~7%.

10% for a company that is burning cash is what the market will agree to if you need their liquidity.
 

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perhaps Rivian's loan will survive since it actually aligns with the current administration's agenda, made in America high tech manufacturing jobs.
That's pretty optimistic. I'm still holding a lot of stock but think this deal is toast. They hate EV's (except for maybe Teslas) more than they care about high tech American manufacturing jobs, imo. ☹ It'll be just another "look how much we saved" with zero benefits actually going to the people.

And if that land becomes another worthless strip of car washes, fast food, and Dollar Generals, instead of a hub of good-paying manufacturing jobs, they will only have themselves to blame. 😢
 

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The reason they are trying to refinance is so that they don't have to pay the original debt next year. They are kicking the can down the road at a much higher rate than the current bond rate.

Rivian cannot afford to make the payment and bring R2 production. Their runway is too small to do both.

Not forward thinking or great management. Its just expensive survival move.
 

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Basically, Rivian can only really sell to the US market, because Chinese EVs will be far better and cheaper globally.
Cheaper, yes, better...? From what I have heard off YouTube channels like Auto Line Daily, the quality and service are not entirely there. But then, this is a country that cornered the market in cheap, disposable products. I guess if I can spend $20k and get a low-end EV econo-box, I should not expect much in the way of a long-lasting vehicle.

I am just being patient. i hold a handful of RIvian stock (about 5% of my portfolio), and I actually just BOUGHT it about 2 months ago. Something tells me that all this tariff bluster will fizzle out.
 

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The reason they are trying to refinance is so that they don't have to pay the original debt next year. They are kicking the can down the road at a much higher rate than the current bond rate.

Rivian cannot afford to make the payment and bring R2 production. Their runway is too small to do both.

Not forward thinking or great management. Its just expensive survival move.
Correct. The sales slump is costing them.
 

Jonger1150

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Also, their loan for the GA plant might be in question. DOE is actively canceling done deals....perhaps Rivian's loan will survive since it actually aligns with the current administration's agenda, made in America high tech manufacturing jobs.

https://www.energy.gov/articles/sec...4-projects-generating-over-3-billion-taxpayer
The courts will void his efforts.

The best he could do is increase the budget deficit and cut people off Medicaid while crippling our sciences.

His supporters are all trash.
 

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Wall Street won't like this. I recently sold my Rivian holdings for a small profit when they were up to 17 per share last week. Looks like I'll be buying back in sooner rather than later.
And here I am still holding mine from a few days after the IPO...

Also, their loan for the GA plant might be in question. DOE is actively canceling done deals....perhaps Rivian's loan will survive since it actually aligns with the current administration's agenda, made in America high tech manufacturing jobs.

https://www.energy.gov/articles/sec...4-projects-generating-over-3-billion-taxpayer
This current administration will cut off it's own nose to spite it's face. Own the libs > Jobs for Americans.
 

Jonger1150

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If the DOE loan is canceled for Rivian, they will almost 100% be put up for sale or go out of business.

I love how oil prices are dropping and gas prices are completely disconnected from that market. Gas prices are staying high and oil prices are low. Hurts the entire fossil fuel industry from the ground up.
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