What the heck is going on with the stock price?!

[Philip]

The company is doing well, great reviews all around, now in the $9 range!?

Why is there no insider buys. There have been more sells than buys. Is that telling us the investors something. A warning!

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[Wispitgood]

Rivian sold a fair number of expensive EV trucks while they had a nearby corner on the market. Those buyers bought (& many are now selling), & there is not a deep reserve of those buyers to draw from.

Now, these higher-end buyers have a lot more choices, and some are arguably more appealing. Go test drive the new Silverado/Sierra platform. I see GM stealing a lot of buyers away from Rivian now that these are hitting the lots.

Rivian has a short time left to hold court with the very appealing R1S but will have to compete with Yukon Denali soon.

R2/3 keeps being thrown out as the magic bullet that is going to save the company, but this series is entering the most crowded segment of the market. I am looking hard, but I see nothing that elevates it above many very good offerings currently available. With the R2 platform, Rivian is aiming for a mark that will have moved once they get there.

Why is the stock down? It is down because anybody paying much attention at all can see some very stiff headwinds ahead for the company; the type of headwinds that sank many car companies in the past.

The one thing, though, is all those other trucks you mentioned start at the price of a tri or quad; I have not seen anything from them at a dual or max price.

 

[MasterofWilford]

Rivian sold a fair number of expensive EV trucks while they had a near corner on the market. Those buyers bought (& many are now selling), & there is not a deep reserve of those buyers to draw from.

Now these higher end buyers have a lot more choices and some are arguably more appealing. Go test drive the new Silverado/Sierra platform. I see GM stealing a lot of buyers away from Rivian now that these are hitting the lots.

Rivian has a short time left to hold court with the very appealing R1S, but will have to compete with Yukon Denali's soon.

R2/3 keeps being thrown out as the magic bullet that is going to save the company; but this series is entering the most crowded segment of the market. I am looking hard, but I see nothing that elevates it above many vary good offerings currently available. With the R2 platform, Rivian is aiming for a mark that will have moved once they get there.

Why is the stock down? It is down because anybody paying much attention at all can see some very stiff headwinds ahead for the company; the type of headwinds that sank many car companies in the past.

GM is offering 0% financing and crazy low MF rates for leases on the Silverado...I like Rivian, but I would not pass up on 0% financing. I bet dealers are giving crazy discounts as well.

 

[MasterofWilford]

The last round of customer satisfaction surveys says Rivian is the best vehicle manufacturer in the market. My car before this, an Audi, needed to schedule an oil change over a month out. Service sucks everywhere, but that's what happens when we have a shortage of skilled trades mechanics.

We will see, but everyone I talk to who has realistic expectations is satisfied with their Rivian.

20 million migrants...how many more years does it take to see them trickle into skill trade jobs....come on!

 

[R1TS]

Welp, back down below $10.

 

[Hereforthesnacks]

$8 buy point approaching!

 

[waitingonanr1s]

$8 buy point approaching!

My hunch is coming tomorrow with Q3 earnings release- may go lower though. I would proceed with caution at this point. Just sold the rest of my shares. I'm completely out, likely until 2025.

I want to hear what their plan is now that it's pretty evident Q4 gross profitability isn't happening. Not worried about them going bankrupt per se (I think they'll get bought out first), but there are better places for my cash right now.

The production woes combined with the service woes don't present a reason for increased optimism any time soon. I love my R1S though - can't beat it if you get a solid one!

 

[mkg3]

Two things:

1) Trump win means IRA EV credit most likely going away, and

2) EV maker Rivian may report first quarterly revenue drop since IPO
REUTERS
Nov-06-2024 5:48 a.m. ET
By Akash Sriram and Abhirup Roy
(Reuters) - Rivian is expected to report on Thursday its first drop in quarterly revenue since going public three years ago, after a shortage of parts forced the maker of electric SUVs and pickups to slash its 2024 production target last month.
CEO RJ Scaringe will likely face tough questions from analysts and investors on how long the shortage is expected to continue, the company's plans to resolve the issue and whether the disruption will derail its plan to turn a gross profit this quarter.
"The company did reduce guidance, but we wonder if another reduction will be necessary if the issues bleed into November," analysts at D.A. Davidson said in a note.
Rivian's plight comes amid a broader slowdown in demand for EVs as high interest rates sour consumer sentiment, leading many to choose less expensive hybrid vehicles instead.
Rival Ford has been scaling back its EV plans. Months after nixing a planned three-row electric SUV, Ford said in October it would halt production of its F-150 Lightning EV pickups for six weeks. These trucks compete with Rivian's R1T pickups.
A lot hinges on the rollout of Rivian's smaller, cheaper R2 SUVs in 2026.
To ensure it has enough money until then, Rivian has slashed costs, including a major factory retooling by shutting down its only plant for three weeks earlier this year and re-negotiating supplier contracts.
A surprise $5 billion lifeline from German automaker Volkswagen Group earlier this year has also reassured investors. The two automakers agreed to a technology joint venture."We want to make sure the company remains on-track with the milestones that must be met to complete the equity, debt, and licensing part of the $5 billion deal," Davidson analysts said.Amazon (AMZN)-backed Rivian reduced its full-year production target to between 47,000 and 49,000 vehicles from 57,000 units. It reaffirmed its annual deliveries forecast of 50,500 to 52,000 vehicles, despite delivering fewer-than-expected vehicles in the third quarter.
Analysts at J.P.Morgan said the shortfall does not appear supply related. "To us, the implied softer demand trend suggests at least some risk to the outlook for full year deliveries," they said in a note.
Analysts on an average expect Rivian to report third-quarter revenue of $1 billion, down 25% from a year earlier, and a loss of 92 cents per share, narrower than the $1.19 per share last year.
Rivian's stock has fallen 55% this year, while that of market leader Tesla is up 1%.
Shares in luxury EV maker Lucid, which is also set to report quarterly earnings on Thursday, has nearly halved this year. The company, backed by Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund, will open orders for its Gravity SUV on the same day.

(Reporting by Akash Sriram in Bengaluru and Abhirup Roy in San Francisco; Editing by Saumyadeb Chakrabarty)

 

[MountainBikeDude]

1) Trump win means IRA EV credit most likely going away, and

The EV credit in the states has never really made sense to me as a Canadian. It's odd that it's not income capped at say 150k USD per household.

Canada's (BC specifically) model is not good either, where an EV needs to be sub 50k-70k cdn but household income also needs to be below 100k cdn which really means barely anyone qualifies

 

[Donald Stanfield]

The EV credit in the states has never really made sense to me as a Canadian. It's odd that it's not income capped at say 150k USD per household.

Canada's (BC specifically) model is not good either, where an EV needs to be sub 50k-70k cdn but household income also needs to be below 100k cdn which really means barely anyone qualifies

I don’t see the point in an income cap for the credit at all. If the goal is to transition to EVs why does income matter?

 

[Thedude]

I don’t see the point in an income cap for the credit at all. If the goal is to transition to EVs why does income matter?

I could see an argument that a lower income cap and lower EV cost cap might influence manufacturers to deliver cheaper EVs and aid faster adoption. Most families can’t afford a $80k EV and a EV credit cap at say $50k could bring cheaper models to market that a more average income family could see as a reasonably affordable option after the credit.

 

[SANZC02]

I don’t see the point in an income cap for the credit at all. If the goal is to transition to EVs why does income matter?

I understand what you are saying but let me float a counterpoint.

The incentive is out there to induce people to purchase and help lower the vehicle price for people stretching their budgets helping them get into the EV. For the higher income individuals I doubt that the incentive played any roll in the decision purchasing an EV.

Don’t get me wrong, I took the incentive on my Model S back in 2016 and I did keep my R1S under 80k to take the incentive on it as well but that is just because the money was available. It would have been foolish to leave that money on the table but I would have still purchased both vehicles had there not been incentives out there.

 

[Hereforthesnacks]

Scaringe is going to have a rough earnings call. Seems like patience is running out. If it’s a catalyst for his removal, then the stock may have some room to run up, if they can bring in an Ops person to get it going. Something like Tim Cook did for Apple the first few years he took over (he killed innovation after that).

 

[Dark-Fx]

I don’t see the point in an income cap for the credit at all. If the goal is to transition to EVs why does income matter?

I'd agree with you, even rich people will still gravitate towards saving a buck.

 

[Kylechoffman]

Given the way they handle service and the public perception of how terrible their Service Centers are performing, I wouldnt be surprised to see the stock down until that gets remedied which seems far off.

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