‘Big Boost Coming,’ Says Investor About Rivian Stock

[Zoidz]

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“Tesla is facing some brand image challenges,” notes the investor, who adds that this “can end up being a strong tailwind for Rivian’s demand and margin outlook.”

Bluesea explains that Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s political affiliations are harming the company brand. This has already translated into decreased year-over-year sales for the month of January, such as in the European markets of France (down by 63%), Germany (down by 59%), and Sweden (down by 44%). The investor further predicts that a similar pressure point will be seen in the U.S. market, noting that Tesla’s car registrations in California dropped by 12% in 2024.

“Even a few percentage point shift in customer preference from Tesla to Rivian could immensely increase the demand potential of Rivian,” posits Bluesea.

When it comes to Rivian, there is a strong growth case to be made, explains the investor, with consensus revenue estimates calling for 43% growth for 2026 and 68% growth in 2027. It is not just revenues that are expanding, points out Bluesea, but margins which are improving as well. For instance, in the Software and Services segment, gross profit increased from $5 million in Q4 2023 to $60 million in Q4 2024.

As for the valuation, Rivian trades at a 2.6x price-to-sales multiple. Tesla, with a price-to-sales multiple over 12x, is much more expensively priced.

“The stock is quite cheap when we look at the forward revenue and margin potential of the company, making it very attractive,” concludes Bluesea, who rates Rivian a Buy.

Wall Street does not fully share this optimism. With 6 Buy, 11 Hold, and 3 Sell ratings, RIVN holds a consensus Hold. (i.e. Neutral) rating. Its 12-month average price target of $14.43 has an upside over ~26%.

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[Dark-Fx]

I think RIVN is pretty fairly priced right now, given the circumstances. They still are probably at least a year away from proving out they can produce R2 in significant quantity and at a profit. BOM cost vs R1 is one thing, but if labor to produce the vehicles are even close to being the same, then R2 likely won't be gross profitable for a while. I know a lot of the market wants to trade on "what could be" and Rivian hasn't made a lot of pie-in-the-sky promises.

 

[ukyank]

There’s 0 reason for any ‘big boost’ until R2. Stock is going to bounce between $9-14 for the next year until we see how R2 is received.

 

[RivianRiverRat]

I think RIVN is pretty fairly priced right now, given the circumstances. They still are probably at least a year away from proving out they can produce R2 in significant quantity and at a profit. BOM cost vs R1 is one thing, but if labor to produce the vehicles are even close to being the same, then R2 likely won't be gross profitable for a while. I know a lot of the market wants to trade on "what could be" and Rivian hasn't made a lot of pie-in-the-sky promises.

hopefully that is resolved with the new stamping discussed in the earnings report

 

[KootenayEV]

I think RIVN is pretty fairly priced right now, given the circumstances. They still are probably at least a year away from proving out they can produce R2 in significant quantity and at a profit. BOM cost vs R1 is one thing, but if labor to produce the vehicles are even close to being the same, then R2 likely won't be gross profitable for a while. I know a lot of the market wants to trade on "what could be" and Rivian hasn't made a lot of pie-in-the-sky promises.

RJ has noted quite a bit that they have designed R2 to not only have a lower BOM but be easier/quicker to build - my assumption is this means significantly reduced labour costs as well.

 

[MountainBikeDude]

I've gotta admit, my half assed read of the thread title had me ready for a Gen1 Quad motor performance boost/launch mode of sorts coming in this next update... Man did I take that misread and run with it..

 

[Dark-Fx]

I've gotta admit, my half assed read of the thread title had me ready for a Gen1 Quad motor performance boost/launch mode of sorts coming in this next update... Man did I take that misread and run with it..

Always have to wonder if Rivian left performance on the table with the OG Quad. We probably won't get that launch mode update until Gen2 quads have been shipping for a while.

 

[mudito]

I've actually 7x my $RIVN long position earlier today. I think the recent dip makes it a bargain.

 

[CharonPDX]

That headline…. Smells of "pump the stock for me so I can sell!" (Not the poster to this forum, but the actual investor in question.)

 

[TexasBob]

There’s 0 reason for any ‘big boost’ until R2. Stock is going to bounce between $9-14 for the next year until we see how R2 is received.

Yes but you can make a pretty good living buying at $9, selling at $14, rinse and repeat.

 

[zefram47]

Yes but you can make a pretty good living buying at $9, selling at $14, rinse and repeat.

And then some of us bought in early and got screwed. You can only keep buying down your basis so much. Oh well, I still believe in the company and its products long term, but it keeps making little sense that every bit of good news the market turns into bad news somehow. Maybe R2 launch will turn things around next year...guess we'll see.

 

[Donald Stanfield]

No doubt Elon is becoming an excellent Rivian salesman with his antics. I agree with other posters that we won't see a substantial boost until R2. The Y and 3 are the significant sales drivers and the ones more people will switch to. The people at Rivian's current price point have probably switched to Rivian because the S and X aren't very good comparitively.

 

[UnsungZero_OldTimeAdMan]

And yet there are many, analysts and armchair experts alike, who glance at the drop since IPO and conclude it's too risky—completely ignoring context and the finer points.

 

[CrazyOne]

Only if they can build R2 at a competitive price, with high quality. Having said that, I don't understand this market.

 

[ghostowl]

Honestly, I feel like the biggest source of chaos & risk for Rivian at the moment is the current administration. Trump is actively hostile towards EV's and has started closing down charging stations. Musk is getting contracts for Tesla but definitely not being an EV champion and has been cancelling contracts that were going to drive EV adoption. The lack of clarity on if they can cancel the signed contract for Rivian's loan is likely to end up resolved in court. Tariffs are going to cause havoc with supply chains and material costs -- so even if Rivian has driven its costs down, but if tariffs drive materials up by 30%, Rivian will then be losing money on vehicles again. Like the real risk is our current elected government and its kind of hard to predict what they are going to do.

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