Rough Calculation of Rivian Orders, Delivery Times

[Sully151]

Too many unknowns and variables.

My wild guess based on my experience with starting up several semiconductor production lines and thin air is mid -late 2023.

Ford is starting Lightning production spring 2022 and are targeting 15,000 trucks for 2022. Hard to believe Rivian will do better than that.

Rivian is only making two vehicles. Ford has to produce an entire line of cars and trucks.

That being said, if Rivian can really complete a truck every four to five minutes, then the build about 100 trucks a day, 500 a week, 2000 a month and 24000 a year. More of the plant runs longer than 8 hours a day and 5 days a week.

It sure would be nice to have at least a guess on when we might see our individual trucks.

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[EVTrucking]

Rivian is only making two vehicles. Ford has to produce an entire line of cars and trucks.

That being said, if Rivian can really complete a truck every four to five minutes, then the build about 100 trucks a day, 500 a week, 2000 a month and 24000 a year. More of the plant runs longer than 8 hours a day and 5 days a week.

It sure would be nice to have at least a guess on when we might see our individual trucks.

Rivian has not said how long it will take them to reach those numbers(production ramp). They certainly will not hit them right out of the gate.

Having lived through several production startups it usually takes 9-12 months to shake out the gorillas and get a fully functioning team and this can only happen in full production mode.

This is where Ford has a huge advantage. They can and will hit full production pretty much out of the gate. Their limiter is production capacity.

IMO Rivian will execute well and do a much better job than Tesla at startup. But keep in mind that this is Rivian’s first HVM and it is in the Covid world.

Also, hitting a production target and consistently maintaining it is a whole different kettle of fish. Currently legacy automobile manufacturers are not able to maintain consistent production.

 

[TAZ]

Rivian is only making two vehicles. Ford has to produce an entire line of cars and trucks.

That being said, if Rivian can really complete a truck every four to five minutes, then the build about 100 trucks a day, 500 a week, 2000 a month and 24000 a year. More of the plant runs longer than 8 hours a day and 5 days a week.

It sure would be nice to have at least a guess on when we might see our individual trucks.

Don't forget about the Amazon vans, Rivian is actually making three vehicles.

 

[EVTrucking]

I just reserved a few days ago so I figure I’m expecting a likely 2023/2024+ delivery for this company to figure out their first real production year and iron any launch issues out

This helps plan how/whether I’ll take delivery and finance my Mach-e next month.

I am hoping to take delivery of my Mach-E next month as well. I reserved R1T 3/20/21 and don’t expect mine until mid-late 2023. If needed I may sell the Mach-E when R1T is ready.

 

[Rousie13]

I reserved my R1T 5/2021 and hoping to take delivery summer/fall 2022. If it’s not ready then I’ll see if I want to wait or get something else.

 

[eggpaul]

I reserved my R1T 5/2021 and hoping to take delivery summer/fall 2022. If it’s not ready then I’ll see if I want to wait or get something else.

That's pretty optimistic. I'm a Dec 2018 preorder holder and they've told us all LE editions will get delivered by June 2022.

 

[flabyboy]

I just reserved a few days ago so I figure I’m expecting a likely 2023/2024+ delivery for this company to figure out their first real production year and iron any launch issues out

This helps plan how/whether I’ll take delivery and finance my Mach-e next month.

Have a feeling you will see it sooner than that

 

[Rousie13]

That's pretty optimistic. I'm a Dec 2018 preorder holder and they've told us all LE editions will get delivered by June 2022.

I agree I’m very optimistic. We usually swap cars every 1-2 years and it will be about 2 years at that point for my model 3. I’ll see if the Rivian is ready at that time and if not, then decide if I want to keep the 3 longer or get something else.

 

[SeaGeo]

Don't forget about the Amazon vans, Rivian is actually making three vehicles.

Different line.

 

[kurtlikevonnegut]

I'm hoping with the IPO coming we might get some visibility finally on actual numbers for preorders and maybe even some production timelines that can be used for forecasting.

 

[Smithery]

That's pretty optimistic. I'm a Dec 2018 preorder holder and they've told us all LE editions will get delivered by June 2022.

Last I heard the guidance on LE R1Ts was still "delivered by end of 2021" - Did they change this officially and I missed it?

Maybe you're talking about R1S even though you direct replied to an R1T order holder?

 

[cc84]

Last I heard the guidance on LE R1Ts was still "delivered by end of 2021" - Did they change this officially and I missed it?

The below is from Rivian/Stories/Adventures Beginning Soon/Deliveries & Drives:

"Launch Edition deliveries are now planned to start in September and be completed in spring 2022. All R1T and R1S Launch Edition preorder holders will hear from their Guide "by the end of November" with their expected delivery timing. "

When can I take delivery?

If you have a Launch Edition preorder, your Rivian Guide will reach out to you "by November" with expected delivery timing.

In another thread, I said "by November" was ambiguous wording, as I interpreted it as prior to November arriving. However, it was worded correctly in the first Rivian quote. "By the end of November" is the way it should've been worded, which leaves no room for misinterpretation. They should be consistent in their statements.

 

[CommodoreAmiga]

The most recent info from Rivian is that LE reservation holders will be contacted by Thanksgiving but deliveries will continue through Summer 2022 AFAIK.

 

[Vegeta]

So if I ordered today when should I expect to take delivery..?

 

[DB-EV]

The most recent info from Rivian is that LE reservation holders will be contacted by Thanksgiving but deliveries will continue through Summer 2022 AFAIK.

Thanks guys. I know the Thanksgiving contact part; where are we seeing the LE deliveries through Summer 2022? Selfishly curious because am Launch R1s holder from Spring 2019 . . . .

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