Autolycus

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If R1S deliveries start in "fall" like they've said, then they must have 2 production lines.
There are 3 production lines.
There are 2 total production lines: 1 for the R1 vehicles and 1 for the Amazon vans. The R1T and R1S will come off the same assembly line in the beginning. They will eventually add another assembly line, but I'm not sure they'll need it for a while. They have said full production capacity for the R1 line is a vehicle every 4 minutes -- there are 15 stations each setup to be 4 minutes or less of assembly work. They could easily get to >1k vehicles per week at that rate. That's pretty solid production for such an expensive vehicle.

Once they have cheaper models, they will need more lines, but those could very well be in the new factory at that point.
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crashmtb

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Interesting. Because only one R line, I figured all R1Ts then all R1s's for efficiency. Ie all trucks before any SUVs. You appear to have a different conclusion.
on a modern assembly line, it is not really any more efficient from a labour standpoint to build things all the same. They can build whatever comes down the line in whatever sequence.
 

RivianXpress

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I think the pre order numbers are much smaller than people think. And LE #’s even smaller than that.

If the best selling vehicle the F150 has ‘only’ 130k Lightning orders after four months (and only $100) how many did Rivian have in the first 24 months??

Ask around, very few people know about the company at this point and very, very few would have put down $1000.

I’m guessing well less than 3000 LE holders (2000 R1T, 1000 R1S) and 10000 non LE holders (including max pack).

As for deliveries -if they concentrate on the four geographical area for first deliveries- those four areas might add up to 1000 total R1T LE’s?

Seems to me they could deliver all the R1T LE’s to NY, SF, Normal and the NW before Thanksgiving.

I’d be happy to be proved wrong but I think it’s easy for forum members to assume there are many more preorders than there really are.

Thoughts??
 

kommonplace

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I think the pre order numbers are much smaller than people think. And LE #’s even smaller than that.

If the best selling vehicle the F150 has ‘only’ 130k Lightning orders after four months (and only $100) how many did Rivian have in the first 24 months??

Ask around, very few people know about the company at this point and very, very few would have put down $1000.

I’m guessing well less than 3000 LE holders (2000 R1T, 1000 R1S) and 10000 non LE holders (including max pack).

As for deliveries -if they concentrate on the four geographical area for first deliveries- those four areas might add up to 1000 total R1T LE’s?

Seems to me they could deliver all the R1T LE’s to NY, SF, Normal and the NW before Thanksgiving.

I’d be happy to be proved wrong but I think it’s easy for forum members to assume there are many more preorders than there really are.

Thoughts??
My thinking is along the same lines.
 

Owssie

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I think the pre order numbers are much smaller than people think. And LE #’s even smaller than that.

If the best selling vehicle the F150 has ‘only’ 130k Lightning orders after four months (and only $100) how many did Rivian have in the first 24 months??

Ask around, very few people know about the company at this point and very, very few would have put down $1000.

I’m guessing well less than 3000 LE holders (2000 R1T, 1000 R1S) and 10000 non LE holders (including max pack).

As for deliveries -if they concentrate on the four geographical area for first deliveries- those four areas might add up to 1000 total R1T LE’s?

Seems to me they could deliver all the R1T LE’s to NY, SF, Normal and the NW before Thanksgiving.

I’d be happy to be proved wrong but I think it’s easy for forum members to assume there are many more preorders than there really are.

Thoughts??
Agree here. I find it odd Rivian would stick to January release for Adventure and Explore if there were a huge number of Launch Editions that had priority delivery. The LE's that carry over once Adventure and Explore's are live will likely be in further locations.
 
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CommodoreAmiga

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Thank you. Can you point to where I can find this information, especially where LE deliveries will continue through Summer 2022. I heard about the "by Thanksgiving", but I believe that was from a Guide and not directly from Rivian, or Rivian's website. The reason I ask, is to determine whether I need to reset my expectations for a third time.

Edit: I see someone above me has already asked this question. Thanks.
I don't have time right now to find the original first-person source. I wish I could give you a canonical source, but this thread does reference LE deliveries running through Spring 2022, many times. That was prior to the delay of first deliveries to September.

https://www.rivianforums.com/forum/...ed-finally-for-real-📬.1590/page-12#post-37059
 

SeaGeo

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Atlrivian

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I think the pre order numbers are much smaller than people think. And LE #’s even smaller than that.

If the best selling vehicle the F150 has ‘only’ 130k Lightning orders after four months (and only $100) how many did Rivian have in the first 24 months??

Ask around, very few people know about the company at this point and very, very few would have put down $1000.

I’m guessing well less than 3000 LE holders (2000 R1T, 1000 R1S) and 10000 non LE holders (including max pack).

As for deliveries -if they concentrate on the four geographical area for first deliveries- those four areas might add up to 1000 total R1T LE’s?

Seems to me they could deliver all the R1T LE’s to NY, SF, Normal and the NW before Thanksgiving.

I’d be happy to be proved wrong but I think it’s easy for forum members to assume there are many more preorders than there really are.

Thoughts??

I think those numbers are close.

Just a few random thoughts:

I frequently have found myself wondering how many people had preordered by the time the configurator went live? I was VERY surprised LE was still available for a while to people who had not previously preordered. Or phrased another way, if tens of thousands of people had put down the initial $1000, why didn't they complete the configurator design process?

Fewer people actually put down the 1000 than we all thought, fewer LEs were being produced than we thought, a lot of people asked for the preorder refund over the years of waiting for Rivian to bring a product to market, or a combination of the three.

Admittedly this is anecdotal, but many of us are the only people in our circle of friends/family who have even HEARD of Rivian, let alone put down a 1000 bucks on a company that has never (until now) produced a production vehicle.

Rivian's vehicles are aimed at a VERY specific subset of the top 5% income bracket. They will remain niche products for at least the first several years.
 
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cc84

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"Our plant in Normal, IL has two separate production lines currently producing vehicles, one for the R1 vehicles (initially R1T and R1S) and one for our commercial vans. "
The above is quoted from RJ's August email.

"Launch Edition deliveries are now planned to start in September and be completed in spring 2022. "
The above is currently on their website: Rivian/Stories/Adventures Beginning Soon/Deliveries & Drives
 

flabyboy

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I think the pre order numbers are much smaller than people think. And LE #’s even smaller than that.

If the best selling vehicle the F150 has ‘only’ 130k Lightning orders after four months (and only $100) how many did Rivian have in the first 24 months??

Ask around, very few people know about the company at this point and very, very few would have put down $1000.

I’m guessing well less than 3000 LE holders (2000 R1T, 1000 R1S) and 10000 non LE holders (including max pack).

As for deliveries -if they concentrate on the four geographical area for first deliveries- those four areas might add up to 1000 total R1T LE’s?

Seems to me they could deliver all the R1T LE’s to NY, SF, Normal and the NW before Thanksgiving.

I’d be happy to be proved wrong but I think it’s easy for forum members to assume there are many more preorders than there really are.

Thoughts??
Yes!

I also feel like many of the people who have been waiting 2-3 years just assume those people ordering now are going to have the same wait. Late 2023-2024 seems way off to me. I also think service center locations will be the biggest limiting factor right now
 

kurtlikevonnegut

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I agree with some others that the preorder number may be much lower than has been speculated. Frankly I'm ok with that as long as Rivian is able to generate the revenue they need to sustain and grow (thanks Amazon).

I like having something unique and I want those "looks" when I drive down the road.
 

Zoidz

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on a modern assembly line, it is not really any more efficient from a labour standpoint to build things all the same. They can build whatever comes down the line in whatever sequence.
I agree with you for a fully tested, debugged, and well-trained production line. But I can tell you from years of manufacturing experience, during the first few months of production where Rivian is at right now, it's absolutely more efficient to build the same thing repeatedly.

A simple example is the logistics of pre-staging interiors. If they plan to build only black interior vehicles, they can pre-stage 100% black interiors at each work cell, and focus on building those vehicles. If they mix orders with black and white interiors, any glitch in the interior pre-staging logistics systems between work cells takes the entire line down. You don't want that in early startup phases. So it's common to produce only one "version" initially so that the focus is on perfecting the main production line process without interruptions from side processes/systems.
 

eggpaul

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Many of the early contacts were given Sept-Dec delivery dates. And it seemed many of those contacts were random (mixed with early and late reservation holders). Those delivery dates must have been given knowing production is starting in Sept. Many of us early reservation holders should be getting contacted soon and receiving similar dates... I hope/believe. It would only make sense right?

I placed the order on Dec 8, 2018, live 30 miles from El Segundo. I mean, come on!
 
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