Take it FWIW - Rivian, Tesla, and Fisker may go Bankrupt

[jakef801]

Take it FWIW:

https://www.investing.com/news/stoc...rices--global-equities-research-432SI-3059360.

I, for one, don't see this happening with Rivian, but I'm quite certain that a number of others will go "tips up" before too long. With Amazon's ownership stake of 17% in RIVN, as well as their 100k order of vans, I feel that they will be Rivian's "White Knight". If I see Besos start dumping shares, then I'll be concerned with my stake in RIVN.

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[Attesan997]

Tesla is pretty unlikely any time soon unless something happens that undoes all of their success over the past decade. They're the Toyota of the EV world and as long as they keep innovating should be able to stay afloat. Rivian and Fisker...of course they could the winds could change at any moment. It's not like it'd be the first time for Fisker.

 

[R1T_Observer]

Maybe another scenario, but no evidence to support this, perhaps a partnership with another EV company, or get bought by one of the big US automakers or a foreign auto manufacturer (Europe or SE Asia). Rivian, like any other car company, has patents and IP so while insolvency is an issue, anything can happen to avoid it. I visited some friends in Palo Alto and asked about the 900 Hanover building Rivian was going to occupy... instead, Tesla leased it out so now they're one block away from Rivian on Hansen Way. I warned them, half joking: maybe Tesla want's to partner up!!!

 

[Foobar]

I think the title is in error - Tesla may not go bankrupt, they're the ones the article suggests is causing the others to go bankrupt.

In any event, I think for a lot of people looking to buy the most economical EV, Tesla will be the obvious choice especially as they can afford to slash their prices below the competition. The other EV companies that choose to compete against them in that segment will have an uphill battle. Rivian is competing in a different segment though. Until Tesla makes a pickup truck or SUV that doesn't look like something out of the Aliens franchise, I don't see Tesla pricing being a determining factor in whether a Rivian prospective buyer commits or not.

 

[zefram47]

We need forum badges or something so we can throw a Chicken Little badge on folks who keep saying the sky is falling.

 

[Tahoe Man]

Maybe another scenario, but no evidence to support this, perhaps a partnership with another EV company, or get bought by one of the big US automakers or a foreign auto manufacturer (Europe or SE Asia). Rivian, like any other car company, has patents and IP so while insolvency is an issue, anything can happen to avoid it. I visited some friends in Palo Alto and asked about the 900 Hanover building Rivian was going to occupy... instead, Tesla leased it out so now they're one block away from Rivian on Hansen Way. I warned them, half joking: maybe Tesla want's to partner up!!!

I agree. I can't see Rivian lasting much longer. If I was shopping for a SUV I'd be much more comfortable knowing Tesla will be around for the foreseeable future, I can't say that about Rivian unless there's some sort of acquisition from a well known buyer. It's a rather self fulfilling prophecy if the decline continues. Tesla price cuts are only adding to that pressure. If there's any more cuts or even worse cuts with a sinking economy where credit becomes more expensive, something will have to give with Rivian.

The stock itself is indicative that Rivian is facing enormous headwinds even with the economy chugging along.

 

[jakef801]

I can't speak for anywhere else in the country, but several people at the Rivian SC in SLC, UT. recently told me that the vast majority of Rivians being purchased in Utah are in the Park City area, which is the most affluent and highest median HH income county in the state. These are people that are very likely cash buyers and don't have to concern themselves with loans/interest rates. It would be interesting to know how many owners/buyers in the USA are getting financing on their Rivs. I, for one, used my HELOC to purchase mine and the rate has climbed to a whopping 6.75% rate. I'm selling a rental I own which is supposed to close in early May (knock on wood). Assuming in closes, I'm definitely going to pay off my HELOC with the proceeds.

 

[Tahoe Man]

I can't speak for anywhere else in the country, but several people at the Rivian SC in SLC, UT. recently told me that the vast majority of Rivians being purchased in Utah are in the Park City area, which is the most affluent and highest median HH income county in the state. These are people that are very likely cash buyers and don't have to concern themselves with loans/interest rates. It would be interesting to know how many owners/buyers in the USA are getting financing on their Rivs. I, for one, used my HELOC to purchase mine and the rate has climbed to a whopping 6.75% rate. I'm selling a rental I own which is supposed to close in early May (knock on wood). Assuming in closes, I'm definitely going to pay of my HELOC with the proceeds.

That's the purpose of rate hikes, to make credit harder to get and more expensive. Then things slow down. Cash buyers will drop off quickly if the economy contracts.

 

[DuoRivians]

Trip isn’t a good analyst, especially outside of Tesla. His opinion isn’t worth anything

 

[jakef801]

That's the purpose of rate hikes, to make credit harder to get and more expensive. Then things slow down. Cash buyers will drop off quickly if the economy contracts.

I wouldn't necessarily say "cash buyers will drop of quickly". Sure, there will be some level of contraction, However, especially in areas like Park City (along with MANY other similar areas of the country) where the net worth of individuals is probably in the $20MM - $500MM+ range. The homes and condos in Summit & Wasatch county are mind boggling. Not boasting or anything, but I can speak from personal experience. We (a group of 15 or so friends) built a 20 unit condo complex in Deer Valley which got C/Os in 2021, with each in the $4MM - $6MM range, and they sold out almost instantly. Other owners in the area include Tiger Woods and Michael Jordan.

There are clearly people on these forums that fit into this category. Maybe not $20MM - $500MM, but certainly $5MM+. I'm not one of them.

 

[Mark_AZR1T]

Rivian isn't going anywhere, however, they will most likely not survive the cash drain and either partner with someone or be acquired (Apple). Henrik Fisker is a borderline crook, BUT, he was brilliant in choosing Magna Steyr to build them on contract. Magna is no joke, the problem is the Tesla price cuts will absolutely crush the Fisker Ocean deliveries unless they adjust.

I'm on the Fisker list for an Extreme, but at $74K with no $7500 it's goose is just about cooked, except for very cash fluid individuals. The EPA numbers should be out within a month on the Fisker Ocean Extreme and I imagine it will be 360+ miles....looks to be a great Model Y competitor but with a distinct cost disadvantage and not one service location in America........Lucid is the one in trouble, despite Saudi $$

 

[MIG]

Cash buyers will drop off quickly if the economy contracts.

Maybe, maybe not. As a cash buyer myself I had a several year runway to make sure that I had enough sequestered to pay for the purchase.

 

[Guy]

Reports suggest Rivian needs another $2 billion to be clear into 2026. If they have issues then I will be expect wither Amazon (although not this year or next due to cost cutting) or another large ORM to buy them. Rivian have a good brand and for someone like BMW having a Jeep/Subaru brand makes sense and compliments their existing offerings. Time will tell.

 

[COdogman]

Unless you are a very large bank, no company is immune from going bankrupt. Everyone buying a Rivian must have some sense of the risk involved buying from a new company in sketchy economic times.

Stop worrying about things you can’t control and enjoy your 800hp electric adventure vehicles. Take a soak. Get a head massage.

 

[clcbjc123]

Tesla has zero chance of going bankrupt. They are at the bottom range of MSRP (entry level), good charging network and clearly have a price advantage over everyone. They are turning the screws on everyone with these price cuts and its awesome to see. In addition, the consumer pool for them is huge, Europe, China and the US.

The only successful thing Fisker has done is go bankrupt before.

Rivian and Lucid (might as well add Lordstown) are selling at a high MSRP’s, with no great technology advantage at this time. They can easily go bankrupt over the next 3-5 years. Only so many rich people want a EV. They don’t care as much about the environmental impact and don't need to join the cult, they already have enough friends. EV's are just a toy with good performance.

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