RIVIAN STOCK

[CGM55082]

Today's massive drop is driven in large part by Ford dumping shares. At this price level, all it takes is some half-way decent news during earnings on Wednesday and we'll see a pop in stock price from today's levels.

The culture of the company seems to be under promise and over deliver -- the opposite of the Tesla model. I think it's possible they could be ahead of the 25,000 delivery target at this point, which would send the stock soaring -- even if temporarily.

Sponsored

 

[guernsej]

Downside protection at $23-$25 was a smart move.

Not as smart as just staying on the sidelines

Buying puts makes sense, collaring it with shares and covered calls doesn't *in these conditions*. Play around with it on an options calculator, the strategy is basically guaranteed to lose money in a steadily declining market. Right now you're better off either buying puts or selling CCP depending if you're bearish or bullish on RIVN's long term prospects.

https://www.optionsprofitcalculator.com/calculator/collar.html

 

[IlliniRivian]

The culture of the company seems to be under promise and over deliver -- the opposite of the Tesla model. I think it's possible they could be ahead of the 25,000 delivery target at this point, which would send the stock soaring -- even if temporarily.

I recall seeing others state this about Rivian.

Would someone tell me a single instance where Rivian has "over delivered"? So far Rivian under promises and still under delivers.

I am still pretty surprised by this pricing and it does make me worried about whether I should follow through on my order. Although the R1S delays may mean I never get to make the decision myself.

 

[CGM55082]

I am not sure it is all Ford news. Market in general feels riskier these days and Rivian amplifies the market movement:

If investors come back to reality with their projections, so will Rivian. Rivian has shown it can design, yet to prove it can manufacture and run a business profitably.

This is largely unrelated to your comments, but if your R1S were ready for delivery today, would you take it (says a lot about confidence in the future of the company)?

 

[trez63]

Wouldn't you know it! Exactly 180 days after IPO.
It's pretty obvious Ford had a 180 waiting period before they could get it and they just dumped it all out in one day. It's actually impressive it wasn't a worse day.
I'm not saying this is a good place to buy in, valuation is still unreasonably high when compared to the industry as a whole given the production forecast, but it is a good enough place for me to get in a bit.

 

[ironpig]

It’s a good place to buy in if you have been waiting. It may dip down more, but mostly now it’s going to ride the market’s rough year for the next few months. But if you believe in the company for the long term, this is a good place to start.

 

[CGM55082]

I recall seeing others state this about Rivian.

Would someone tell me a single instance where Rivian has "over delivered"? So far Rivian under promises and still under delivers.

I am still pretty surprised by this pricing and it does make me worried about whether I should follow through on my order. Although the R1S delays may mean I never get to make the decision myself.

I think Rivian clearly over delivered in the most obvious and important way -- on the vehicles themselves. They have exceeded expectations almost universally for initial quality, craftsmanship, ride quality, performance and several other key metrics. In fact, I can't recall a single review of the vehicle that doesn't rave about it.

 

[mkg3]

Today's massive drop is driven in large part by Ford dumping shares. At this price level, all it takes is some half-way decent news during earnings on Wednesday and we'll see a pop in stock price from today's levels.

The culture of the company seems to be under promise and over deliver -- the opposite of the Tesla model. I think it's possible they could be ahead of the 25,000 delivery target at this point, which would send the stock soaring -- even if temporarily.

It was also reported that JP Morgan had around 15 million shares sell orders from insiders this weekend.

The stock may see a small pop for very short time after the earnings report, if the production number us an upside surprise, but it definitely will be short lived, as more sellers will come in immediately.

At this point, I would not touch RIVN until F is done selling over the next few quarters. You can usually see if that's happening right at the market open as large numbers of sell orders are cued up.

I remember TSLA shares lingered in a $30~$60 range for a long time until Model X started rolling off the line and Model S increased noticeably. The moment for RIVN is when the R1S and R1Ts are being produced in tens of thousands, and EDV being delivered on schedule. As for when? Its probably mid to late 2023 story...

 

[Max]

This is largely unrelated to your comments, but if your R1S were ready for delivery today, would you take it (says a lot about confidence in the future of the company)?

I would. Mostly because of my lack of confidence in everything else. I am getting old and if natural causes don't take me out soon, war, a new variant or inflation may do that soon so I would want to live a little before I don't. Both R1S and Rivian stock are a gamble at best. I purchased the stock at 35 and may buy some more not because I believe the company is executing flawlessly. In fact, it seems like most new vehicles they deliver have problems and they have problems with numbers and timing. It does not make it a sensible choice. I bought because I am hoping there are other idiots like me out there. Harley was leaking oil on showroom floors but loyalists were still buying. My faith in Rivian is not supported by reason.

 

[SANZC02]

70 million shares transacted today, that is nearly 4 times average. Seems like those stock options were burning holes in a lot of peoples pockets.

Hard to say what makes people sell in todays market but seems like they could be leaving a lot of money on the table.

 

[Jumacao]

I see AMZN a better buyer than GM. GM doesn’t need RIVN.

I think that makes less sense. Amazon is an unpopular (by public opinion, not utility), bloated online retailer with no experience making automobiles. GM is a middle-of-the-road automobile manufacturer with proven interest in EVs but no good plan right now.

Neither company needs Rivian. However, of the two, GM has more to gain in its core business from a Rivian buy-out than Amazon does.



P.S.: an argument could be made that Jeff Amazon, in his endless quest to be publicly embarassed by Elon Musk, could buy Rivian just so he can have an EV company too. Stranger things have happened.

 

[kurtlikevonnegut]

P.S.: an argument could be made that Jeff Amazon, in his endless quest to be publicly embarassed by Elon Musk, could buy Rivian just so he can have an EV company too. Stranger things have happened.

He literally built a giant phallic spaceship in a semitransparent metaphorical dick-measuring contest with Musk. Buying Rivian out would be relatively mundane by comparison.

 

[Eticket99]

Just remember they had 18B of cash on hand end of 21'..... they're trading just above that now, there is value in their product and their investment in Normal and now Georgia has value, and yes that cash will burn like a dumpster fire... If you can get Rivian in the teens, might end up being a "wish I bought more moment" .... not sure what DSP people were thinking holding on to shares at $125+.... the company was never worth 70B let alone more to begin with and everyone in their right mind should have sold and took profits --- I had this day on my calendar since the IPO.... yes Ford has a lot of shares to sell... but guess who has more... the employees!!!

 

[NY_Rob]

Bought another 100 shares at $22.65, we'll see if that was a smart move.. but it brings my average down to $50.10/share.

 

[kurtlikevonnegut]

Just remember they had 18B of cash on hand end of 21'..... they're trading just above that now, there is value in their product and their investment in Normal and now Georgia has value, and yes that cash will burn like a dumpster fire... If you can get Rivian in the teens, might end up being a "wish I bought more moment" .... not sure what DSP people were thinking holding on to shares at $125+.... the company was never worth 70B let alone more to begin with and everyone in their right mind should have sold and took profits --- I had this day on my calendar since the IPO.... yes Ford has a lot of shares to sell... but guess who has more... the employees!!!

I read today in an analysis that they expect to burn $8b by through the end of 2023. That's a big number, but the fact that after burning $8b they will still have another 10b in reserve gives me a lot of faith in their ability to get sufficient cash flow before they need to take on additional debt.

Sponsored