Has anyone on this forum received a confirmed delivery date?

[Guy]

Why would it be ridiculous? We have known since July that Rivian can't get enough chips and that production would be delayed. What has changed that makes you think they are going to ramp up production capacity that much? Do you know how many chips are in each truck? What are the trivial numbers that you are quoting?

“The cascading impacts of the pandemic have had a compounding effect greater than anyone anticipated,” Chief Executive Officer R.J. Scaringe said in a letter sent Friday to customers and viewed by Bloomberg. “Everything from facility construction, to equipment installation, to vehicle component supply (especially semiconductors) has been impacted by the pandemic.” July 16,2021

Trivial is when you think they should/could make say 20000 next year when the auto industry in the US is making 12+million vehicles all requiring chips and other components. They have had the design, screens, wheels etc set for years now. Yes the pandemic has had an impact but all manufacturers are releasing new vehicles (including brand new companies like Lucid) so I do expect all 50000 preorder holders to be complete by end 2022 or early 2023. That would be close to eighteen months since manufacturer (after delays) was September 2021. The pandemic started hitting the supply chain in late 2020 so this is not new.

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[Redline]

This is the exact reason I posted about Lucid deliveries taking place and their good communication. They are an EV startup, based in the US, and "started deliveries" at the same time as Rivian. This is about as good as a comparison gets. Why have they been able to deliver a decent number of vehicles to customers already and are provide good communication, but Rivian can't?

There is obviously a delay taking place. Whether it's supply chain, quality issues, last minute design fix, what ever the case, they should be willing to be more transparent with thousands of people waiting who gave them deposits 12+ months ago. They just had their IPO and are flush with cash. They are running out of excuses.

How many Lucid's have been delivered?

 

[Guy]

How many Lucid's have been delivered?

I saw the delivery event (to real non employee customers) last month and estimates are around 20000 next year (that may be a touch too high). Lucid are working from a a completely new factory and if anything their cars are even more advanced than Rivian (so needing lots of chips).

 

[skyote]

So maybe they’re trying to call as many people as they can and then sending out the email to everyone else at the end of the month?

That's my guess. Even if they tried to call everyone before EOM, there's no doubt there would be a lot of "no answers"... especially when calls are coming from a toll free number.

Are you getting an R1T or R1S? I am guessing no estimate yet for R1S when they haven't even started building.

I heard firsthand that "customer R1S production" would begin "before December", but the first R1S customers will almost certainly be employees, just like the R1T.

Expectations are just resentments under construction.

That's a great line, first time I've heard it. Definitely rang true for romantic relationships in my younger years ?, and is true of most startup companies as well. However, expectations can be set & managed appropriately, even as things change, but some people & companies are better at it than others...

 

[manitou202]

How many Lucid's have been delivered?

It's not a huge number. Probably in the 100-200 range, but they continue delivering 20-50 per week with the deliveries increasing weekly.

They are on track to deliver 520 of the Air Dream Edition (limited edition for launch) by the end of the year. Their first primary version, the Air Grand Touring, is on track to start deliveries at the beginning of the year. I have a Grand Touring reservation and have been in contact with my delivery advisor, finalized my order, arranged payment, arrange location of delivery, and submitted other documents like drivers license and proof of insurance. I've been told I'm about two months from delivery and will receive my VIN number shortly as it is prepared to enter production.

 

[Guy]

It's not a huge number. Probably in the 100-200 range, but they continue delivering 20-50 per week with the deliveries increasing weekly.

They are on track to deliver 520 of the Air Dream Edition (limited edition for launch) by the end of the year. Their first primary version, the Air Grand Touring, is on track to start deliveries at the beginning of the year. I have a Grand Touring reservation and have been in contact with my delivery advisor, finalized my order, arranged payment, arrange location of delivery, and submitted other documents like drivers license and proof of insurance. I've been told I'm about two months from delivery and will receive my VIN number shortly as it is prepared to enter production.

Sounds like Lucid have the communication piece down if you have a reasonable window for delivery and worked through all those details.

 

[skyote]

I have a Grand Touring reservation and have been in contact with my delivery advisor, finalized my order, arranged payment, arrange location of delivery, and submitted other documents like drivers license and proof of insurance. I've been told I'm about two months from delivery and will receive my VIN number shortly as it is prepared to enter production.

Novel approach, right? Rivian will get better, and I hope it's quickly.

I'm really curious to see what the Rivian delivery ETAs show us as more continue to go out.

 

[ironpig]

Trivial is when you think they should/could make say 20000 next year when the auto industry in the US is making 12+million vehicles all requiring chips and other components. They have had the design, screens, wheels etc set for years now. Yes the pandemic has had an impact but all manufacturers are releasing new vehicles (including brand new companies like Lucid) so I do expect all 50000 preorder holders to be complete by end 2022 or early 2023. That would be close to eighteen months since manufacturer (after delays) was September 2021. The pandemic started hitting the supply chain in late 2020 so this is not new.

Do really think Rivian is going to deliver 50,000 pre-order vehicles by the end of 2022 when nobody outside the company even has one yet?

Tesla started delivering the Model S in 2012 and didn't hit 50k/year until 2017. And Tesla just rewrote their Model S vehicle code to use fewer semi conductors because they can't even secure enough to keep up with their manufacturing lines.

Did you read the IPO filing? Rivian said it hoped to "fulfill" the 48,930 pre-orders by the END of 2023. But yet you "expect all 50000 preorder holders to be complete by end of 2022 or early 2023".

I understand you are excited about the car, but you are making an argument that they should be delivering faster than they even said they could in their prospectus.

 

[Diddy123]

Did you read the IPO filing? Rivian said it hoped to "fulfill" the 48,930 pre-orders by the END of 2023. But yet you "expect all 50000 preorder holders to be complete by end of 2022 or early 2023".

If we're getting technical...what they actually said in the final S1 is that they Expect to fulfill all 55,400 pre-orders by the end of 2023.

 

[Guy]

Do really think Rivian is going to deliver 50,000 pre-order vehicles by the end of 2022 when nobody outside the company even has one yet?

Tesla started delivering the Model S in 2012 and didn't hit 50k/year until 2017. And Tesla just rewrote their Model S vehicle code to use fewer semi conductors because they can't even secure enough to keep up with their manufacturing lines.

Did you read the IPO filing? Rivian said it hoped to "fulfill" the 48,930 pre-orders by the END of 2023. But yet you "expect all 50000 preorder holders to be complete by end of 2022 or early 2023".

I understand you are excited about the car, but you are making an argument that they should be delivering faster than they even said they could in their prospectus.

i agree it is ambitious, but without stretch goals they will continue to be slow. Their prospectus will be conservative and most people expect them to exceed that. I do expect 50000 by end q1 2023 which is a year for the S and 15 months for the T at reasonable production.
It would be poor if they reached 50000 (4K a month) at the end of 2023 when they have a. 200k a year factory (after expansion), even with the EDV do you really think they or the market would be happy with a 50% utilization in 25 months time. If you think so then something is wrong.
They should be at 600 by the end of this year and that equates to 7200 a year already, it isn’t asking that much for them to increase by around five fold to fill the large majority of orders by early 2023. Late 2023 is boilerplate legal text..

 

[Jarico75]

it is and it isn't carefully crafted. rivian does seem to approach its marketing/PR differently than an OEM and seems like they favor "grass roots" type look and feel. so having employees jump on IG is definitely a planned thing, but not what i would call carefully crafted. and i think they are ok with it.

not an excuse for poor comms, totally different thing and totally inexcusable.

Or........ It could be that some enterprising employees, with early deliveries, thought they had an opportunity to monetize an Instagram account and created one to attempt to do that, but also do not want to jeopardize their current employment so are careful not to violate the company's social media policy.

 

[RivianXpress]

I'm wondering if the whole subscription service is also holding things up. There is a lot that needs to be done like linking vehicles, service centers, call centers, guide contact info, connecting the app, the backend billing, possibly free charging, Spotify integration, RAN network connections, etc, etc.

As much as many of us would accept the truck sight unseen maybe they have to prepare for all the items listed above before a single real customer delivery??

 

[Guy]

I'm wondering if the whole subscription service is also holding things up. There is a lot that needs to be done like linking vehicles, service centers, call centers, guide contact info, connecting the app, the backend billing, possibly free charging, Spotify integration, RAN network connections, etc, etc.

As much as many of us would accept the truck sight unseen maybe they have to prepare for all the items listed above before a single real customer delivery??

I agree there is a lot of support services needed. I am surprised that they are so lacking, given that they had planned large scale manufacture many months ago and if we accept the supply chain issues, mainly chips, impacted that. That should not stop hubs, RAN and service centers opening. To have just one hub and maybe one service center open in the whole US as of now is poor.

 

[SANZC02]

I agree there is a lot of support services needed. I am surprised that they are so lacking, given that they had planned large scale manufacturer mo the ago and if we accept the supply chai. Issues, mainly chips, impacted that. That should not stop hubs, RAN and service centers opening. To have just one hub and maybe one service center open in the whole US as of now is poor.

I think people are underestimating the actual impact Covid is having.

Walk around the stores and look at all of the empty shelf space.

I had solar installed this year, what normally would be a 2 month process took almost 8 months to complete. If I count when the electric company coming out for the final inspection almost 10 months as I had the PTO from the electric company 2 months before they did the final inspection of the panel upgrade (I did have the final city inspection before the PTO).

 

[Guy]

I think people are underestimating the actual impact Covid is having.

Walk around the stores and look at all of the empty shelf space.

I had solar installed this year, what normally would be a 2 month process took almost 8 months to complete. If I count when the electric company coming out for the final inspection almost 10 months as I had the PTO from the electric company 2 months before they did the final inspection of the panel upgrade (I did have the final city inspection before the PTO).

I understand the pandemic has had an impact. I am having a backup generator installed and it will be three months extra. However all companies have this and Lucid (in a new factory) seems to be doing well. As mentioned communication is not impacted by the pandemic. They could have last month said R1T LE holders will be Q1 not say October then November and now next year. The pandemic has caused some delay but new factories (Mazdas in Alabama for example) and new cars are being rolled out. Rivian has already had a six month delay. They have been slow even pre pandemic. An example of the slowness is that three years after showing the vehicles (same interior and exterior design and skateboard structure) they are finally making some in volume.

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