F-150 Lightning not starting deliveries until September 2022

[ERguy]

There's a very real chance that almost every F150 Lightning delivery in 2022 will be to fleet customers. You're a day 1 reservation, but aren't there literally tens of thousands of others right there with you? The last update before this said 15k Lightnings produced in 2022, with production starting in the spring. Now this is saying production has slipped some, which would also suggest that they'll likely produce fewer trucks in 2022.

You may very well be able to get a Lightning before a Rivian, but I'm not sure it'll be a full year earlier. I will be surprised if more than a few thousand retail customers get their Lightning in 2022, and there will be thousands of day 1 reservations that are pushed well into 2023.

You are quoting a lot of misinformation. That 15k number in 2022 is not from Ford. Ford won't release the true number for next year, but Ford definitely never said only 15k deliveries in 2022.

Also... There is absolutely no reason to think fleet vehicles will be delivered first.

Finally... There are not many first day reservations. I believe the number was under 20k. There is no reason to think they won't be completed in 2022.

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[ERguy]

The lightning is still on track for deliveries approximately 1 year from the unveiling. That's quite an accomplishment if they can pull it off.

Here is the official Ford response regarding the false Lightning delay rumors.

 

[EVTrucking]

You are quoting a lot of misinformation. That 15k number in 2022 is not from Ford. Ford won't release the true number for next year, but Ford definitely never said only 15k deliveries in 2022.

Also... There is absolutely no reason to think fleet vehicles will be delivered first.

Finally... There are not many first day reservations. I believe the number was under 20k. There is no reason to think they won't be completed in 2022.

Actually Ford originally said they would produce 7,500 in 2022 and a few months later they doubled it to 15,000. As far as I know 15k is still Ford’s target for 2022.

How they allocate the 15,000 is anybodies guess. Fleet, Dealers, Customers.

Keep in mind that Ford said they will start shipping Spring of 2022, which could be as late at June 20. 15,000 in 6 months is pretty agressive.

 

[ERguy]

Actually Ford originally said they would produce 7,500 in 2022 and a few months later they doubled it to 15,000. As far as I know 15k is still Ford’s target for 2022.

Ford said nothing at all about production numbers next year.

How they allocate the 15,000 is anybodies guess. Fleet, Dealers, Customers.

Keep in mind that Ford said they will start shipping Spring of 2022, which could be as late at June 20. 15,000 in 6 months is pretty agressive.

No... Ford has never claimed those numbers. If you have a source suggesting Ford did claim those production estimates, you would have shared it by now.

The 15k number dates back to a Reuters article citing an anonymous source. That's not very official or reliable.

Also, Ford can easily deliver 15k in 6 months. They produced more than 15k mach-e vehicles during the first 6 months, so there is no reason to think they can't do it with the Lightning. I was able to get my Mach e within 6 months of r first delivery despite not ordering until the same month deliveries started. Ford was able to ramp up to 5000k vehicles produced per month almost immediately.

That's the difference between the production capabilities of a start up vs legacy auto maker.

 

[EVTrucking]

No... Ford has never claimed those numbers... Source please.

The 15k number dates back to a Reuters article cutting an anonymous source.

https://www.electrive.com/2021/08/24/ford-doubles-f-150-lightning-production-numbers/

Multiple news agency have reported the same numbers. True they are not directly from Ford but Ford feeds the press.

Reality is that Ford is tooling up and is not immune to production ramp. They have 6-9 months of production in 2022 and are subject to the supply chain issues like everyone else.

Being in the 1st 20k of reservations is IMO not a lock on getting a Lightning in 2022. Ford has an undisclosed complex allocation algorithm and yes Fleet sales could be a significant variable in their allocation algorithm.

The inescapable truth is that only time will tell.

 

[ERguy]

https://www.electrive.com/2021/08/24/ford-doubles-f-150-lightning-production-numbers/

Multiple news agency have reported the same numbers. True they are not directly from Ford but Ford feeds the press.

Reality is that Ford is tooling up and is not immune to production ramp. They have 6-9 months of production in 2022 and are subject to the supply chain issues like everyone else.

Being in the 1st 20k of reservations is IMO not a lock on getting a Lightning in 2022. Ford has an undisclosed complex allocation algorithm and yes Fleet sales could be a significant variable in their allocation algorithm.

The inescapable truth is that only time will tell.

I get that only time will tell... But you should realize the article you linked cites Reuters as their source who cited essentially nobody as their source. It's not accurate to say multiple news agencies reported this. They are simply repeating what Reuters said without any independent verification. That's not news. That's spreading rumors.

 

[EVTrucking]

I get that only time will tell... But you should realize the article you linked cites Reuters as their source who cited essentially nobody as their source. It's not accurate to say multiple news agencies reported this. They are simply repeating what Reuters said without any independent verification. That's not news. That's spreading rumors.

Agreed. I could be spreading misinformation. What is your source of information?

The vast majority of the stuff in this forum is rumor, speculation, wishful thinking and making shit up.

I will admit that my uttering is heavily colored with 38 years of high volume semiconductor R&D and manufacturing plus current experience with Ford for my MME.

Time will tell.

 

[Oculophilia]

It makes sense now! Elon's simply such a visionary, that he realized that Cybertruck is how *all* vehicles will look once it finally roles off the line.

Cybertruck looks better from the front imho. The beady-eyed Rivian headlights are unfortunate. Should have kept with the cyclops light bar But cyber is obvously atrocious from every other angle.

 

[Oculophilia]

It's still amazes me that delivery timing can be the deciding factor between two very different vehicles. Seems like I'd wait however long it took to get the vehicle I want, but I guess it's a toss-up for some between them.

Is there any indication that order date will mean much for the Ford? Given they will have such limited supply in the first year, and comments they've made about allocating as they see fit, it seems like a day one order could take up to a year or more to actually get it once they start delivering. Just like the Rivian, start of deliveries doesn't necessarily mean everyone....

That is my reaction since Rivian market will be the Tacoma/4Runnner/Jeep market while the Lightning will take from the light gas truck market like Tundra/Sierra/f-150. However, I think we will see consumers choose their niche when given the supply opportunity. For now, I think the novelty of electric truck will supercede the desire to choose which one.

The backfeeding feature on the F-150 will be HUUUUUUGE for rural purchasers once they learn about it.

Like I said, Rivian consumers will be the casual overlanders. 2 entirely different customer bases.

 

[Oculophilia]

I get that only time will tell... But you should realize the article you linked cites Reuters as their source who cited essentially nobody as their source. It's not accurate to say multiple news agencies reported this. They are simply repeating what Reuters said without any independent verification. That's not news. That's spreading rumors.

This guy fucks msm

 

[Monkey]

Well, Ford just made some updates today. Reservations are officially closed, RETAIL order banks open in January. Production officially starts 1st Quarter, first deliveries in spring. FLEET customers are being contacted starting now-ish for confirmations and information on how to proceed with order submission. Configuration options for Lightning Pro fleet buyers are limited. Basically we get to choose XL or XLT trim, exterior color and a couple specific package options for each trim. Option to add extended range battery for either trim. That's it. All other options are dealer installed. No updates or info on anticipated build quantities or how many fleet orders they have or anything like that.

They are sold out for the foreseeable future, hence why retail reservations are now closed and fleet orders were cut off some time ago. They won't be able to invite all reservations to configure in 2022, may not be able to deliver all orders by end of 2023. Production is entirely limited by battery supply at this time. They are not prioritizing either battery option or any trim level over another. Going to try and keep orders / deliveries as much on reservation time stamp or first come first served as they can. Fleet orders and deliveries begin first "by a few weeks" but do not have any priority over retail orders. They are trying to stick to order date/time where possible. Some fleet orders may be broken into separate production and shipments -- especially where it's for buyers groups or there are different configurations on an order.

Fleet and retail customers will not be able to delay their orders or hold reservations. Use it or lose it / order or get out of the way.

So yeah... Might have company Lightnings here before my personal R1T. Lots of questions still about how this is all going to work. We still don't have any official numbers for estimated range, final cargo or tow capacities.

That is my reaction since Rivian market will be the Tacoma/4Runnner/Jeep market while the Lightning will take from the light gas truck market like Tundra/Sierra/f-150. However, I think we will see consumers choose their niche when given the supply opportunity. For now, I think the novelty of electric truck will supercede the desire to choose which one.

I think for many, the allure of an electric truck is most of the deciding factor. While R1T, Lightning and Cybertruck are all different, they are still a truck. They are aimed at different segments, all of which overlap to some degree. I waited longer than I should have to place my R1T reservation because I was convinced it's too small for me. And it might be at times, but most of the time it won't be. The gear tunnel storage and some of its other features make up for the shorter bed length and less interior space vs. the Lightning. Neither the Lightning or R1T are a 100% match to what would be my ideal vehicle, but I would say both of them are 85% or better to reaching that goal, each missing in different ways. I'll be happy to take whichever one I can get first.

The backfeeding feature on the F-150 will be HUUUUUUGE for rural purchasers once they learn about it.

Suburbanites too. Really anyone who has control over their home electrical setup that plugs in daily can benefit from having a backup solution.

 

[Sgt Beavis]

Where all them folk at saying they gonna get their Lightning before their Rivian?

Can still happen for some. I've got a day one Lightning order but my Rivian was ordered in early Oct 2021. So I think I can be somewhat reasonably over optimistically confident that I would get the Lightning first.

That said, I think a Sept delivery is fairly realistic for the Lightning if Job 1 is in June. Even so, I'll wait for the R1T. Getting a delivery windows this month, from Rivian, will only solidify that.

 

[mkg3]

....The backfeeding feature on the F-150 will be HUUUUUUGE for rural purchasers once they learn about it....

Will Ford provide Manual/Automatic back feeding transfer switch?

Can't just plug in and feed electricity into the house. Need to modify the power in/out to the home so that a cutoff can be installed for safe back feeding.

 

[kylealden]

Suburbanites too. Really anyone who has control over their home electrical setup that plugs in daily can benefit from having a backup solution.

I'll be very interested in what adoption looks like. If I were to guess I'd bet that less half of Tesla owners have an L2 charger installation in their house, and even most of those are probably just the mobile charger plugged into a dryer outlet. Sourcing/scheduling/paying contractors is a pain.

Most people don't have particularly acute power outage problems (it's not like whole-home generators enjoy a lot of penetration, and they have way lower barriers to entry than an expensive electric truck), and I doubt they'll rush en masse to an expensive and fairly invasive install for the occasional backup need. (This would of course vary significantly in certain regions... howdy Texas and CA. But even there, your F150 is not going to power an electrically heated/cooled home for very long, I'm afraid.)

Maybe I'm just pessimistic and/or lazy, but I've had my Teslas on a 120V outlet for three years and have no plans to upgrade short of building a new house.

 

[ERguy]

I'll be very interested in what adoption looks like. If I were to guess I'd bet that less half of Tesla owners have an L2 charger installation in their house, and even most of those are probably just the mobile charger plugged into a dryer outlet. Sourcing/scheduling/paying contractors is a pain.

Most people don't have particularly acute power outage problems (it's not like whole-home generators enjoy a lot of penetration, and they have way lower barriers to entry than an expensive electric truck), and I doubt they'll rush en masse to an expensive and fairly invasive install for the occasional backup need. (This would of course vary significantly in certain regions... howdy Texas and CA. But even there, your F150 is not going to power an electrically heated/cooled home for very long, I'm afraid.)

Maybe I'm just pessimistic and/or lazy, but I've had my Teslas on a 120V outlet for three years and have no plans to upgrade short of building a new house.

I'll do it. Already have a level 2 outlet installed for my current EV. I'm going to use the Ford charger and have the appropriate transfer switch installed for my lightning.

I don't have a ton of power outages, but when I do it's especially problematic because all my appliances are electric. I don't have natural gas in my house.

I can't wait to have a Lightning that can serve as backup power for my home.

I agree only a minority will have the V2H hardware installed, but I do think a lot wl utilize the level 2 charging capabilities at home with either a 30 or 50 amp outlet or a charger hardwired to their electric panel.

The V2H capability will require additional hardware, expense, and an electrician in most cases.

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