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Estimated canceled preprorders? Estimated R1S preorders?

Rivians

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Has there been any narrative on estimated canceled preorders? The Cybertruck is likely to see less cancelation due to the reservation price point, I'm wondering how many preorders have been canceled on the R1T in the last 3 years as I bet after 2020 its more than what we may think.

Also, I'm an R1S preorder. Unsure how many preorders may be for the SUV. Being in Minnesota and 6 hours from Normal, IL I'm hoping to be a 1st or 2nd Q delivery for the R1S (assuming they start delivering in Jan '22 as stated).

I feel like ramp up will be pretty quick.. 50k to 70k vehicles a year should be manageable. I'd also imagine that the Amazon vehicles will be built on a different line and have nothing to do with customer vehicles but I could be wrong here. I'm mostly just speaking out loud while trying to be cautiously optimistic about my situation.

For me.. ideally.. my 2020 Subaru Ascent will be out of warranty I'm estimating by August 2022 when I expect to cross 36k miles.. its been a solid vehicle for me, but I've a long track record of bad luck on cars out of warranty. Really crossing my fingers I see the R1S prior to August of next year but I guess no one will know for sure.
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Has there been any narrative on estimated canceled preorders? The Cybertruck is likely to see less cancelation due to the reservation price point, I'm wondering how many preorders have been canceled on the R1T in the last 3 years as I bet after 2020 its more than what we may think.

Also, I'm an R1S preorder. Unsure how many preorders may be for the SUV. Being in Minnesota and 6 hours from Normal, IL I'm hoping to be a 1st or 2nd Q delivery for the R1S (assuming they start delivering in Jan '22 as stated).

I feel like ramp up will be pretty quick.. 50k to 70k vehicles a year should be manageable. I'd also imagine that the Amazon vehicles will be built on a different line and have nothing to do with customer vehicles but I could be wrong here. I'm mostly just speaking out loud while trying to be cautiously optimistic about my situation.

For me.. ideally.. my 2020 Subaru Ascent will be out of warranty I'm estimating by August 2022 when I expect to cross 36k miles.. its been a solid vehicle for me, but I've a long track record of bad luck on cars out of warranty. Really crossing my fingers I see the R1S prior to August of next year but I guess no one will know for sure.
I disagree that a low price point leads to less cancellations. I committed $1k to Rivian a years ago after a lot of thought. I plunked down the $100 for the F-150 without much thought at all. I'm almost certain I'm still going with Rivian. The F-150 reservation is disposable.
 

kommonplace

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Has there been any narrative on estimated canceled preorders? The Cybertruck is likely to see less cancelation due to the reservation price point, I'm wondering how many preorders have been canceled on the R1T in the last 3 years as I bet after 2020 its more than what we may think.

Also, I'm an R1S preorder. Unsure how many preorders may be for the SUV. Being in Minnesota and 6 hours from Normal, IL I'm hoping to be a 1st or 2nd Q delivery for the R1S (assuming they start delivering in Jan '22 as stated).

I feel like ramp up will be pretty quick.. 50k to 70k vehicles a year should be manageable. I'd also imagine that the Amazon vehicles will be built on a different line and have nothing to do with customer vehicles but I could be wrong here. I'm mostly just speaking out loud while trying to be cautiously optimistic about my situation.

For me.. ideally.. my 2020 Subaru Ascent will be out of warranty I'm estimating by August 2022 when I expect to cross 36k miles.. its been a solid vehicle for me, but I've a long track record of bad luck on cars out of warranty. Really crossing my fingers I see the R1S prior to August of next year but I guess no one will know for sure.
No one has any idea how many preorders there are, nor any idea about cancellations of such.

I think you might have it backwards on the Cybertruck vs RT1/RTSā€”someone who only put $100 down on a Cybertruck is much more likely to cancel than someone who put $1000 down on an R1T/S, in my opinion. $100 is something many people probably thought, "eh, why not?" but $1,000 is, for most people, something you put some thought into. I would think a greater percentage of Rivian preorders are firm orders as compared to the Cybertruck. Just speculation.

50k-70k might be doable, but no one really knows. And these aren't likely to be high volume cars, due to their price point. There may not even be 50-70k preorders. No one knows.

I envy you with your Ascent! 36k miles is really almost like a new car. Maybe you do have bad luck, but seriously, unless you're absolutely abusing the crap out of the thing, it should last way, way, way pats 36k miles. I put that many miles on my car every 14-15 months or so. Mine's approaching 200k miles and I'm just starting to worry a bit, and it's a Ford. I'd feel 100000x more confident in a Subaru that's a year away from hitting 36k. I believe in you (and your car)! You'll make it.
 

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I think you might have it backwards on the Cybertruck vs RT1/RTSā€”someone who only put $100 down on a Cybertruck is much more likely to cancel than someone who put $1000 down on an R1T/S, in my opinion.
I think there are two different cancelation scenerios. Someone who plunked down $100 is less likely to cancel before they have to pony up the purchase price than someone who plunked down $1,000. Someone who put $1,000 is less likely to cancel when they actually have to pony up the money to purchase the vehicle than someone who paid $100 for their reservation.
 
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Rivians

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No one has any idea how many preorders there are, nor any idea about cancellations of such.

I think you might have it backwards on the Cybertruck vs RT1/RTSā€”someone who only put $100 down on a Cybertruck is much more likely to cancel than someone who put $1000 down on an R1T/S, in my opinion. $100 is something many people probably thought, "eh, why not?" but $1,000 is, for most people, something you put some thought into. I would think a greater percentage of Rivian preorders are firm orders as compared to the Cybertruck. Just speculation.

50k-70k might be doable, but no one really knows. And these aren't likely to be high volume cars, due to their price point. There may not even be 50-70k preorders. No one knows.

I envy you with your Ascent! 36k miles is really almost like a new car. Maybe you do have bad luck, but seriously, unless you're absolutely abusing the crap out of the thing, it should last way, way, way pats 36k miles. I put that many miles on my car every 14-15 months or so. Mine's approaching 200k miles and I'm just starting to worry a bit, and it's a Ford. I'd feel 100000x more confident in a Subaru that's a year away from hitting 36k. I believe in you (and your car)! You'll make it.
Ha! Hey.. I hear ya.. the Subaru is solid, but I did have its transmission replaced already and I've had it for just about 2 years now.

Here are some of my blunders:

2019 Tesla Model S - multiple electric issues after 50k miles.. FORTUNATELY Tesla has still covered everything out of generosity.
2017 Explorer - 3.5 engine blown out of warranty
2017 Raptor - cam phasers blown 2nd time out of warranty
2011 Durango - transmission shot out of warranty
2018 Jeep Wrangler JLU - stuttering transmission out of warranty

My wife and I also put a lot of miles on our cars. It's mostly highway, but we do a fair amount of off roading which contributes to my issues.

I'm nervous about the subaru costing me $4k out of warranty before the rivian arrives.. thats some fun rivian accessories out of my pocket book!
 

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kommonplace

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I think there are two different cancelation scenerios. Someone who plunked down $100 is less likely to cancel before they have to pony up the purchase price than someone who plunked down $1,000. Someone who put $1,000 is less likely to cancel when they actually have to pony up the money to purchase the vehicle than someone who paid $100 for their reservation.
Good points, and that makes sense. Now that you put it that way, I can see folks wanting their $1,000 back after a year or two or three of waiting and wanting to cut bait and run. I was only thinking about when it came time to take delivery. Good call!
 

kommonplace

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Ha! Hey.. I hear ya.. the Subaru is solid, but I did have its transmission replaced already and I've had it for just about 2 years now.

Here are some of my blunders:

2019 Tesla Model S - multiple electric issues after 50k miles.. FORTUNATELY Tesla has still covered everything out of generosity.
2017 Explorer - 3.5 engine blown out of warranty
2017 Raptor - cam phasers blown 2nd time out of warranty
2011 Durango - transmission shot out of warranty
2018 Jeep Wrangler JLU - stuttering transmission out of warranty

My wife and I also put a lot of miles on our cars. It's mostly highway, but we do a fair amount of off roading which contributes to my issues.

I'm nervous about the subaru costing me $4k out of warranty before the rivian arrives.. thats some fun rivian accessories out of my pocket book!
Well, I know one person I'm never letting anywhere near my car! haha

I hope your Subaru holds on, then, and I definitely hope your Rivian lasts you for a good long time!
 
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Rivians

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I disagree that a low price point leads to less cancellations. I committed $1k to Rivian a years ago after a lot of thought. I plunked down the $100 for the F-150 without much thought at all. I'm almost certain I'm still going with Rivian. The F-150 reservation is disposable.
It's not about less cancelations. It's that by % there are significantly more people willing to hold on then drop it.
 
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Rivians

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Well, I know one person I'm never letting anywhere near my car! haha

I hope your Subaru holds on, then, and I definitely hope your Rivian lasts you for a good long time!
I am black death.. but I love my tesla. I can't go back to gas, I'm stoked for this R1S.
 

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If this thread is about getting your Rivian sooner, I can see some cancellations, but not much. And I hope you moved up.

Now that there is more financial backing, rumors of going public (not SPAC), evidence of great performance, the MotorTrend articles, etc..., I am sure there is a surge of new reservation holders.

I just found out in the company I work for, that there are five reservations holders that plunk their money recently...so for whatever attrition there was, it has more than recovered that loss.
 

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The belief that cancellation is a function of deposit amount is a false assumption. May be at the point of reservation the amount play a part in examining your commitment but once you are in, anyone at any amount is in because they could afford the deposit. I doubt that if a $1000 makes a significant difference in someoneā€™s life, they would be looking at an $80K vehicle.

I have reservation for CT, Lightning and Rivian. The main reason for cancelling any of them is knowing that I will definitely wonā€™t be buying one not the reservation amount. That is mostly a function of what information becomes available, like if I test drive all three and make up my mind or the availability of one is significantly different from others. Even after I purchase one, I may hold on to other reservations for a while in case I find out I have made a mistake.

I have not run any survey on this but I doubt I am alone in thinking this way.
 

electrictaco

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The belief that cancellation is a function of deposit amount is a false assumption. May be at the point of reservation the amount play a part in examining your commitment but once you are in, anyone at any amount is in because they could afford the deposit. I doubt that if a $1000 makes a significant difference in someoneā€™s life, they would be looking at an $80K vehicle.
I think that the point some are trying to make here about deposit amount is that a $100 reservation will attract more pre-orders that have no ability or intention of actually buying the vehicle. A $1000 pre-order level makes the barrier to entry higher and eliminates the aspirational pre-order holders (I bet a significant portion of Cybertruck pre-orders were made by those who can't afford one or can't even drive yet). From my own experience, this is true because I had to think long and hard as to whether I wanted to pre-order the Rivian, but then tossed down $100 on an F-150 Lightning without even seeing the event. I want the Rivian more, but as @nfrank said I'm almost certainly going with the Rivian and "the F-150 reservation is disposable".
 

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I think Max has it right. I'm following the strategy of multiple reservations (Model S, Lucid Air, Kia EV6, R1T and CT). I haven't owned an EV other than a 1st gen Volt, and you can't test drive the latest and greatest EVs, so I'm keeping my options open. I've got a 2020 Navigator, so I don't have an immediate need for a second truck. If the Model S works out, I'll probably go with the CT. If not, I'll go with the R1T. Either way, I'll be dropping a few reservations.
 
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Ha! Hey.. I hear ya.. the Subaru is solid, but I did have its transmission replaced already and I've had it for just about 2 years now.

Here are some of my blunders:

2019 Tesla Model S - multiple electric issues after 50k miles.. FORTUNATELY Tesla has still covered everything out of generosity.
2017 Explorer - 3.5 engine blown out of warranty
2017 Raptor - cam phasers blown 2nd time out of warranty
2011 Durango - transmission shot out of warranty
2018 Jeep Wrangler JLU - stuttering transmission out of warranty

My wife and I also put a lot of miles on our cars. It's mostly highway, but we do a fair amount of off roading which contributes to my issues.

I'm nervous about the subaru costing me $4k out of warranty before the rivian arrives.. thats some fun rivian accessories out of my pocket book!
Based on your track record, you are going to love being under the Rivian warranty and Rivian is going to hate you!
 

Max

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I think that the point some are trying to make here about deposit amount is that a $100 reservation will attract more pre-orders that have no ability or intention of actually buying the vehicle. A $1000 pre-order level makes the barrier to entry higher and eliminates the aspirational pre-order holders (I bet a significant portion of Cybertruck pre-orders were made by those who can't afford one or can't even drive yet). From my own experience, this is true because I had to think long and hard as to whether I wanted to pre-order the Rivian, but then tossed down $100 on an F-150 Lightning without even seeing the event. I want the Rivian more, but as @nfrank said I'm almost certainly going with the Rivian and "the F-150 reservation is disposable".
Just to present my thinking process as just one person for the record: Like you, I jumped at the Ford reservation with no passion for the brand or the truck. I did that just because I was snoozing with every other option on the back of the line and I wanted to be a front runner on something and as you mentioned barrier to entry was low but I would never do it if I had no interest. The three options for me are completely different with different Pros and Cons.

1 - Rivian appeals to my reptilian brain. In their commercials you donā€™t see the vehicle much. It is all mountains, snow, dogs and lots and lots of smiles with the message give us your money and you will be happy. It works. I am convinced I will be happy with the Rivian even though other parts of my brain tells me it is expensive, it is a new company with no service centers near me, no info about what it will be like to own one and in general risky. But the vehicle, R.J. and the company being likable makes me want to take that risk. It has a SUV option that others donā€™t.

2 - Cybertruck shocked me at the reveal and I didnā€™t take it seriously but it grew on me. Specs/price for dual motor was compelling. I consider most truck designs ugly. If I was going to drive ugly, I many as well be different. Surprisingly, I now like the look of it. The company has been making EVs for a while and it is slightly safer bet even though the completely new design has itā€˜s own inherent risks. The thing is too many things are up in the air with it and even if everything works out, I wonā€™t see one in my driveway for at least 3-4 years (best case scenario).

3 - F150 is a Frankensteined temp solution before Ford can make a real EV but that is not necessarily a bad thing. You can still find and use many existing aftermarket solutions for it. Nice ride without expensive air shocks to maintain. Full size spare. Average body shop or mechanic may not be quite as afraid of it as CT or Rivian for minor work. The base Pro could be the first $40K BEV truck on the road. In a few years when all options listed are outdated with the new tech in the market, a 40K vehicle will be less painful to replace than 70K.

As you see the three are very different vehicles at different price points (40, 50, 70). All of which are real possibility for me and all half as efficient as most EVs on the road (I have not ruled out other options). Most shoppers likely have much narrower focus than me but I wanted to let you know people like me are out there.
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