Cybertruck Thoughts

[momo3605]

One could assume that. One could also assume they didn't find 20k people willing to buy the overpriced thing.
And further, one could assume they were sick of all the bad press from the early buyers breaking, shooting, and failing to reproduce Musk's antics, not to mention the flippers (that then cost legal fees to go after) with their Clustertrucks.
I do agree, the vast majority of the reservation holders (in unknown number) never wanted to pay $120k and are not going there. It's a mediocre implementation of "innovations" that Tesla has no right to claim. It remains to be seen if those reservation holders are still waiting around if/when the $70k version even makes it to production...

Agreed. My spot was around 50,000 for cybertruck, and I just got the email to configure last week. There’s no way they got 50,000 buyers already, I’m guessing a lot of people are passing. Waiting for cheaper version, or cancelling.

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[Friscorays]

The Smoking Tire on the Cybertruck:
"It is crazy that they just sell the thing with shit it doesn't have."
"The panel fitment is so atrocious.... on the nose particularly.... that is a razor blade."
"The doors don't sit flush. The fit and finish of it is so hideous I can't believe they let it out the door like that."
"The rear view mirror is a fucking joke."
"They had a stop sale on the wheel covers because they were cutting the sidewalls."
"The camera that pops up when you signal is really weird."
"To me the whole thing feels like a solution in search of a problem. It solves a problem nobody had for a fashion statement. Nobody who wants a truck for truck things is going to go this is a better truck."
"A fashion statement and might already own a Tesla sedan are going to get this as a fashion statement and they are now in a heavier, more dangerous less efficient vehicle than what they were already in. It actually backs the efficiency and the green argument the other way."
"The brakes are not good."
"I can understand the appeal of steer by wire. You look at the panel fitment of this truck and you go the company that fucking put that together and let it out the door with that kind of imprecision and garbage quality, we are trusting them to remove the mechanical connection of steering. Get the fuck out of here. They demonstrate on this product how little they give a fuck about the details and so that is concerning when it comes to a potential failure point of my steering."


And on Rivian:
"The Rivian is so nice to drive. They are fucking great man."
"It is a really well made thing. For a company's first product, it is shockingly well made."
"How sick is that R3. I just saw photos and goddam is that good. I want one so bad."

 

[COdogman]

The Smoking Tire on the Cybertruck:
"It is crazy that they just sell the thing with shit it doesn't have."
"The panel fitment is so atrocious.... on the nose particularly.... that is a razor blade."
"The doors don't sit flush. The fit and finish of it is so hideous I can't believe they let it out the door like that."
"The rear view mirror is a fucking joke."
"They had a stop sale on the wheel covers because they were cutting the sidewalls."
"The camera that pops up when you signal is really weird."
"To me the whole thing feels like a solution in search of a problem. It solves a problem nobody had for a fashion statement. Nobody who wants a truck for truck things is going to go this is a better truck."
"A fashion statement and might already own a Tesla sedan are going to get this as a fashion statement and they are now in a heavier, more dangerous less efficient vehicle than what they were already in. It actually backs the efficiency and the green argument the other way."
"The brakes are not good."
"I can understand the appeal of steer by wire. You look at the panel fitment of this truck and you go the company that fucking put that together and let it out the door with that kind of imprecision and garbage quality, we are trusting them to remove the mechanical connection of steering. Get the fuck out of here. They demonstrate on this product how little they give a fuck about the details and so that is concerning when it comes to a potential failure point of my steering."


And on Rivian:
"The Rivian is so nice to drive. They are fucking great man."
"It is a really well made thing. For a company's first product, it is shockingly well made."
"How sick is that R3. I just saw photos and goddam is that good. I want one so bad."

"Game changer"

 

[KootenayEV]

I'm not interested in being reliant on gas at all but am fully willing to accept that I'm probably the extreme minority position here, especially when considering towing. I would likely have traded my R1T in for the dual+max for towing reasons, but the barely larger max pack made it easy to just wait instead.

Me too. I came from a mid-sized truck (Ridgeline) to the R1T, and I'm fine with the towing range at the end of the day when considering the rest of the time I'm not towing and the truck is AWESOME otherwise.

 

[KootenayEV]

I think Tesla will sell every CT that they make on the first year, around 120K of them. But In order to sell 250k yearly volume, they must lower its price. Elon knows there is very limited market for $100K+ truck. Only time will tell, but you make money if you predict the future correctly.

I think they will not. They've barely sold that many Model X over the last several years, which is at a similar price point and also has neutered functionality compared to its peers. The X was also a Musk vanity project.

 

[jjswan33]

We shall know Q1 numbers and production guidance in mid April. BTW CT business is a very small part of Tesla which will eclipse 2 million units sold this year. CT will contribute only 5-6 % of total sales figure. But I am most interested in neural network based (AI based) FSD guidance, especially rumored V 13.0. Saw a clip of Microsoft‘s version of autonomous driving. OMG, my jaw dropped. Robotaxi Is not too far away…

 

[Rivian Head]

I think they will not. They've barely sold that many Model X over the last several years, which is at a similar price point and also has neutered functionality compared to its peers. The X was also a Musk vanity project.

Just look at the reservation number, then calculate what percentage will be purchasing CT. Elon said on record that there are over 1 million reservations in the US alone. What percentage will materialize as buyers? 10 % alone will sell out projected production in the first year.

 

[KootenayEV]

Just look at the reservation number, then calculate what percentage will be purchasing CT. Elon said on record that there are over 1 million reservations in the US alone. What percentage will materialize as buyers? 10 % alone will sell out projected production in the first year.

What people reserved is not at all what Tesla are delivering. Not to mention it was $100... I even threw in a reservation initially hoping they would come to their senses and put a different body on top of the underlying chassis. Conversion likely to be far less.

 

[Rivian Head]

What people reserved is not at all what Tesla are delivering. Not to mention it was $100... I even threw in a reservation initially hoping they would come to their senses and put a different body on top of the underlying chassis. Conversion likely to be far less.

So what percentage do you think will become buyers?

 

[KootenayEV]

So what percentage do you think will become buyers?

I think they may sell as many as 50k this year and it may hold for a few years if they manage to get the manufacturing costs down and lower the asking price significantly. Since there are no believable reservation numbers out there, can't give you a %

 

[Rivian Head]

I think they may sell as many as 50k this year and it may hold for a few years if they manage to get the manufacturing costs down and lower the asking price significantly. Since there are no believable reservation numbers out there, can't give you a %

50K sales number will put CT as the second best selling truck in the US, and more than 2x as R1T. It’s also less than 5% of what Elon said on record. BTW SEC is watching Elon, so he had to use “ more than a million “, but elected not to give the exact number.
I think it will be around 30%, based on my unscientific polls among my buddies and my neighbors. We shall see.

 

[KootenayEV]

50K sales number will put CT as the second best selling truck in the US, and more than 2x as R1T. It’s also less than 5% of what Elon said on record. BTW SEC is watching Elon, so he had to use “ more than a million “, but elected not to give the exact number.
I think it will be around 30%, based on my unscientific polls among my buddies and my neighbors. We shall see.

Wut? https://www.goodcarbadcar.net/ford-f-series-sales-figures/

I also think Rivian is unlikely to sell that many R1T at that price point. They need a cheaper model (cut out air suspension/hydraulic roll control, etc etc) to sell many.

You are right though, we are all pontificating here and data will be known as time marches on.

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