Cybertruck Thoughts

[carsly]

I wouldn't discount the Chevy/GM offerings with their 200+ kWh battery packs. They also have a lot of loyal customers who are going to see that 450 mile range and take the plunge. You would know better than I do what the charging curve looks like but at least the top line charging speeds are impressive.

Long distance towing fans will have a few options - and more options are better:
- Silverado EV in whatever trim level has the 24 Ultium modules - 200-250kwh of battery brutishness
- Rivian R1T *cough* Max *cough* Pack - if this were the 180kwh pack of legends it might be more useful
- Cybertruck with Range Extender - probably ends up ~185kwh
- Ramcharger - when it ships, might be the best option of all

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[s0ysauce]

Money can buy you a lot of things, but it can't buy you taste.

 

[jjswan33]

They need to really push out the Pilot/Flying J stations, since EA doesn't have any pull-through stations to speak of, and Tesla seems to be dragging their feet on 800V stations. You're still talking about 30+ minute stops every 2 hours. We were struggling to even get 1 kWh/mi in our R1S in the winter pulling our 5k lbs travel trailer at 65 mph.

With the Ramcharger, you likely won't need to drive slower and stops off the freeway will be convenient and quick.

I agree the Ramcharger is a great option. Might even be a better option for the way I use my truck, that said I think a DM Max pack and it's 20-25% range boost over my QM Large pack is still what I am eyeing to replace mine.

 

[Dark-Fx]

I agree the Ramcharger is a great option. Might even be a better option for the way I use my truck, that said I think a DM Max pack and it's 20-25% range boost over my QM Large pack is still what I am eyeing to replace mine.

I'm not interested in being reliant on gas at all but am fully willing to accept that I'm probably the extreme minority position here, especially when considering towing. I would likely have traded my R1T in for the dual+max for towing reasons, but the barely larger max pack made it easy to just wait instead.

 

[jjswan33]

I'm not interested in being reliant on gas at all but am fully willing to accept that I'm probably the extreme minority position here, especially when considering towing. I would likely have traded my R1T in for the dual+max for towing reasons, but the barely larger max pack made it easy to just wait instead.

Yeah a larger battery max pack would have been nice but payload would have likely killed it for me, the fact that the DM has more payload and I can skip the tonneau cover for more weight savings is another selling point for me at this point in my also admittedly unique use case.

 

[Rivian Head]

The sales numbers may eventually be accurate, but let's stop pretending those reservation numbers you keep throwing around are real. The "2 million" reservation number was exposed to be crowdsourced. Then Elon ran with it, acting like that was accurate even though he was the one person who would know what the real numbers were.

And it's because of his wild statements since 2019 that everyone was underwhelmed by the reveal.

I agree that traditional truck buyers aren't going electric yet and if they do, they are likely to go with a Lightning if they are used to a full size truck. But the CT is not likely to meet those lofty sales expectations either. It's proving to be even more of a niche product than the R1T.

If CT hits sales figures like 120k first year, then 250k+ thereafter, still a niche product?
Then what do you call a vehicle that struggles to meet 30K yearly sales ? LOL

 

[COdogman]

If CT hits sales figures like 120k first year, then 250k+ thereafter, still a niche product?
Then what do you call a vehicle that struggles to meet 30K yearly sales ? LOL

There you go again throwing around made up numbers. Why don't you just ask me about the possibility of the sun crashing into the earth?

There is no evidence the CT will sell at those numbers. None. And just to clear things up, I agreed the R1T was not a "traditional" truck either. It is a niche vehicle, although it can do more "traditional" things than a CT.

 

[Rivian Head]

There you go again throwing around made up numbers. Why don't you just ask me about the possibility of the sun crashing into the earth?

There is no evidence the CT will sell at those numbers. None. And just to clear things up, I agreed the R1T was not a "traditional" truck either. It is a niche vehicle, although it can do more "traditional" things than a CT.

I think Tesla will sell every CT that they make on the first year, around 120K of them. But In order to sell 250k yearly volume, they must lower its price. Elon knows there is very limited market for $100K+ truck. Only time will tell, but you make money if you predict the future correctly.

 

[jjswan33]

I think Tesla will sell every CT that they make on the first year, around 120K of them. But In order to sell 250k yearly volume, they must lower its price. Elon knows there is very limited market for $100K+ truck. Only time will tell, but you make money if you predict the future correctly.

You need to share some of whatever it is you are smoking because thinking Tesla is going to build and sell 120k CTs this year is illogical. But since you just keep on repeating the same illogical argument I am just going to assume you are trolling.

 

[COdogman]

I think Tesla will sell every CT that they make on the first year, around 120K of them. But In order to sell 250k yearly volume, they must lower its price. Elon knows there is very limited market for $100K+ truck. Only time will tell, but you make money if you predict the future correctly.

In October of last year Musk admitted they would not reach capacity in year 1. Then, in December it was discovered Tesla could only produce enough battery cells for the CT to manufacture about 24k Cybertrucks per year. Obviously that will increase, but that puts 2 huge dents in the numbers you are throwing around.

You can just say you don't know. That is perfectly acceptable. Because truthfully no one knows....

 

[Rividiculous]

Something to consider, without Tesla paving a path Rivian would not exist.

I’m not a Tesla hater (no comment on Elon) and they do a lot of nice work and innovation. The Cybertruck looks silly (and ugly) to me but they did some clever things and innovated and I respect that. That said, Tesla did not invent the electric car. (And Elon did not even start Tesla.) There seems to be this weird belief that if Tesla hadn’t come along, no one would have possibly figured out how to build a good EV.

It’s a bit like saying that without SpaceX, we’d never have made it to the moon. Or a without the Boring Company, no one would ever have invented the subway. Or, I guess, tunnels.

 

[Rivian Head]

You need to share some of whatever it is you are smoking because thinking Tesla is going to build and sell 120k CTs this year is illogical. But since you just keep on repeating the same illogical argument I am just going to assume you are trolling.

Only time will tell. But do some research. Pay money to get their research data if you want to know how they came up with the conclusions. They are not alway right, but their rationales are legit

 

[COdogman]

Only time will tell. But do some research. Pay money to get their research data if you want to know how they came up with the conclusions. They are not alway right, but their rationales are legit

Here is some research you don't have to pay for:

https://www.reuters.com/business/au...-tesla-descends-into-battery-hell-2023-12-21/

Tesla Cybertruck deliveries hostage to battery production hell
Norihiko Shirouzu
December 21, 2023

8:07 AM MSTUpdated 3 months ago

AUSTIN, Texas, Dec 21 (Reuters) - Elon Musk says prototypes are easy, production is hell. And when it comes to the long-awaited Cybertruck, Tesla's hell is its pioneering 4680 battery.

Tesla delivered the first of its futuristic stainless steel-plated electric pickups last month and CEO Musk said in October that it would probably hit an annual production rate of a quarter of a million vehicles at some point during 2025.

But Tesla is still a long way off that kind of production pace, and one of the main bottlenecks is the speed it can make the 4680 batteries used in the Cybertruck with its new dry-coating technology, nine people familiar with the matter said.

 

[Rivian Head]

Here is some research you don't have to pay for:

https://www.reuters.com/business/au...-tesla-descends-into-battery-hell-2023-12-21/

Thanks for letting me know. But that is 4 mo old article. Wall Street projection is all over the place such as Morgan Stanley projects 100k CT production by 2025.

 

[COdogman]

Thanks for letting me know. But that is 4 mo old article. Wall Street projection is all over the place such as Morgan Stanley projects 100k CT production by 2025.

Your article was 6 months old

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