How Many R1s Will Be Delivered By The Next Earnings Call?

[sierraskier]

I think you need an option for <500

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[Dark-Fx]

The good news is that covid cases are substantially down, so that can’t be an excuse going forward.

I'm holding you personally responsible for the next variant that turns out to be more deadly and more transmissible than all the previous ones.

 

[Longhorngirl]

I think you need an option for <500

Added.

 

[Max]

The issue is that they can’t force themselves to get the trucks customer ready by sheer desire

Most difficult things are primarily accomplished by sheer desire. The rest is details and priorities. One of those details is the definition of “ready”. Tesla used zip ties and Home Depot parts to get the cars out. Rivian may not be willing to do that but at some point, they will have to decide what is good enough. As a 23 window guy, I am willing to risk 22 window guy’s safety to get R1 out a little earlier

 

[Scoiatael]

If we are counting from Jan 1st to March 10, I think it'll be in the 200 area. 10-20 of those will probably be to people not employees or affiliated with employees.

 

[LoneStar]

I fear the earnings call update could be they simply can't figure out both R1S and R1T production right now so they are going to focus on the R1T and the R1S delivery windows will be pushed way back.

If this comes true, the R1S crowd can expect a round of CS calls asking if they'd take a truck instead of an SUV for an earlier delivery. Those conversations will not go down well.

 

[Sgt Beavis]

I think we’ll be above 1500, but it won’t be nearly enough. Rivian ’should’ be above 15000 by the end of the quarter. They won’t be anywhere near that.

 

[NY_Rob]

On the positive side... not every Rivian employee needs or wants a new $70K vehicle. So, at one point they will be forced to deliver trucks to non-employee customers simply because they ran out of insider customers

 

[mkg3]

Since this earnings report is for Q4 2021, where they produced roughly 1000 vehicles total, any choices north of 1,000 is highly unlikely (meaning that they delivered everything they made in Q4 and any in transit from Q3).

The vehicles need to be transported to regions then delivered to customers so given the holidays, I would guess that they delivered less than 500 (and 500~750 at the most) at the end of Q4.

Q1 2022 will be much better story and they will be pressed to provide some color regarding the current quarter as well as the update to the rest of the year.

 

[paariv]

Since this earnings report is for Q4 2021, where they produced roughly 1000 vehicles total, any choices north of 1,000 is highly unlikely (meaning that they delivered everything they made in Q4 and any in transit from Q3).

The vehicles need to be transported to regions then delivered to customers so given the holidays, I would guess that they delivered less than 500 (and 500~750 at the most) at the end of Q4.

Q1 2022 will be much better story and they will be pressed to provide some color regarding the current quarter as well as the update to the rest of the year.

Last time, they provided production numbers well beyond the quarter for which they were reporting financial results - I think it was production numbers as of the week of the earnings release. So they can and should (note that I didn’t say “will”) report similarly current numbers next month.

 

[mkg3]

Last time, they provided production numbers well beyond the quarter for which they were reporting financial results - I think it was production numbers as of the week of the earnings release. So they can and should (note that I didn’t say “will”) report similarly current numbers next month.

Agree but technically, they are reporting Q4 and FY2021 results at this call.

Anything else is status update and "forward looking" information. The production numbers are reported on a different cycle than the official earnings report (e.g., F, GM does monthly, Tesla does quarterly but on different date than the earnings report).

 

[mgc0216]

I think we’ll be above 1500, but it won’t be nearly enough. Rivian ’should’ be above 15000 by the end of the quarter. They won’t be anywhere near that.

15,000 by EOQ would be 60k per year, which means they'd clear their backlog by Q12023 - which nobody has ever said. Or am I misreading your comment?

 

[SANZC02]

I think we’ll be above 1500, but it won’t be nearly enough. Rivian ’should’ be above 15000 by the end of the quarter. They won’t be anywhere near that.

This is only the second quarter of production For Rivian. Tesla did a total of 2700 vehicles in 2012, that was just over 2 quarters. They were under 6k in each of the next 2 quarters so they had not hit 15k total delivered in their first 4 quarters.

 

[James]

I thought it would be fun to create a poll to get everyone’s thoughts on how many cars they think Rivian will be delivered before the next earnings call. My guess is between 751-1000. I think that omicron had a big impact to production. The good news is that covid cases are substantially down, so that can’t be an excuse going forward.

I’m thinking more on the order of 50.

 

[E.S.]

I fail to see the purpose of this poll. It's all speculative vs being an accurate measure. None of us have any clue what the factual number will be and, tbh, this isn't a topic that should be decided on speculative metrics.

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