How Many R1s Will Be Delivered By The Next Earnings Call?

[Longhorngirl]

I thought it would be fun to create a poll to get everyone’s thoughts on how many cars they think Rivian will be delivered before the next earnings call. My guess is between 751-1000. I think that omicron had a big impact to production. The good news is that covid cases are substantially down, so that can’t be an excuse going forward.

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[SeaGeo]

Less than 500 R1S.

Or are you asking to R1 (T or S)?

 

[lostpacket]

What is the window we're considering, like total deliveries including employees 2021? or deliveries in 2022 so far?

 

[Craigins]

As Seageo states, the question is unclear. Are you asking R1S, or R1T+R1S? Are you asking Sept 2021-next call, or from the previously announced delivery numbers to the next earning call?

 

[Ladiver]

Considering they claim almost 1000 deliveries in 2021, the first choice can be removed. I think the number will be less than 1500 total (including 2021).

 

[SeaGeo]

Considering they claim almost 1000 deliveries in 2021, the first choice can be removed. I think the number will be less than 1500 total (including 2021).

If it's total R1 models, and not R1S. But in that case, what was the delivered number on 12/31? Basicaly 1,000 wasn't it?

 

[Ladiver]

If it's total R1 models, and not R1S. But in that case, what was the delivered number on 12/31? Basicaly 1,000 wasn't it?

Yeah, mid 900 something.

 

[SANZC02]

I put 500 to 750, I assumed with the lower numbers on the chart that we were excluding the 1020 delivered 4th qtr and wanted to know the 2022 updated number.

They shut down for a bit in January so maybe 7 weeks of production by 3/10.

Fingers crossed Q2 will be smoother.

 

[paariv]

I’m in a pessimistic mood today. They won’t tell us the number of real non-affiliated customer deliveries because it’s so low. But I would bet that number, which is most relevant to us, will be leas than 500, maybe less than 100 by earnings. And the bulk of those “real” deliveries will take place in the week before the earnings call.

Perhaps a more interesting question will be: will a single longtime forum member get a truck before the earnings call? Or: will any March/April deliveries even have firm delivery dates by then? That -not vague numbers of total deliveries - is what will be most revealing.

 

[Longhorngirl]

As Seageo states, the question is unclear. Are you asking R1S, or R1T+R1S? Are you asking Sept 2021-next call, or from the previously announced delivery numbers to the next earning call?

Agree. It is unclear. My fault. The number of total R1T+R1S delivered after the roughly 1,000 number last year, so the 2022 numbers.

 

[Max]

Even though the numbers in this quarter may not be pretty, Rivian has to meet it’s annual delivery goals. Both Ford and GM are aggressively bumping up their numbers. Gloves are coming off in 23 and 24. Rivian will deliver not for our sake but for it’s own.

 

[ironpig]

Total R1Ts and R1Ss from January 1 to the earnings call will be around 1260.

 

[Ladiver]

I selected 500-750, but realistically, I think the number from Jan 1 to earnings call will be lower than that. Maybe closer to 400.

 

[paariv]

Even though the numbers in this quarter may not be pretty, Rivian has to meet it’s annual delivery goals. Both Ford and GM are aggressively bumping up their numbers. Gloves are coming off in 23 and 24. Rivian will deliver not for our sake but for it’s own.

I think all of us agree they are desperate to start real deliveries. The issue is that they can’t force themselves to get the trucks customer ready by sheer desire. If they can’t scale on time they can’t scale on time and that’s that.

 

[IlliniRivian]

I voted 500-750 and expect 100% of whatever they deliver are R1Ts.

I fear the earnings call update could be they simply can't figure out both R1S and R1T production right now so they are going to focus on the R1T and the R1S delivery windows will be pushed way back.

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