"day one" of "not a good day" for $RIVN

[moosehead]

^ The Long Way Downunder

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[the long way downunder]

^ The Long Way Downunder

oh my god, I'm obtuse
: )

 

[KurtP]

I have previously conceded my ignorance with investing - hence I stick to my retirement funds. That said, I not opposed to purchasing stock in a company that I believe in (in the early 2000's I did quite well with RHAT - since I used it every day. sold RHAT when it hit ~$100).

I like what Rivian has created as a product and I have preordered the R1S. What RJ has to do now is demonstrate that he can produce - show that Rivian can deliver on its targets and that you are attracting new customers (some will come after positive reviews). As such, while $58 (as of today) is a great price to get into the stock now, my intent is to invest in Rivian only after they have delivered my car 1H2023 and I will probably hold for the long-term.

 

[the long way downunder]

I have previously conceded my ignorance with investing - hence I stick to my retirement funds. That said, I not opposed to purchasing stock in a company that I believe in (in the early 2000's I did quite well with RHAT - since I used it every day. sold RHAT when it hit ~$100).

I like what Rivian has created as a product and I have preordered the R1S. What RJ has to do now is demonstrate that he can produce - show that Rivian can deliver on its targets and that you are attracting new customers (some will come after positive reviews). As such, while $58 (as of today) is a great price to get into the stock now, my intent is to invest in Rivian only after they have delivered my car 1H2023 and I will probably hold for the long-term.

That all makes sense and will keep you out of bankruptcy court. : )
In short, "nobody knows" ... $RIVN could trade for $50 tomorrow or continue to meander around $60 and incrementally step higher if Rivian reports good news and keeps its nose clean.
I hope that by July, $RIVN will be $100 and you'll be confident in buying a long term position.
As with a lot of household name companies, we're seeing discounting back to mid 2020 prices. Some will recover, others like Facebook, previously considered unstoppable, might have encountered immovable obstacles, Netflix, riding the covid wave has apparently washed up and I wouldn't touch any of these "dips" till there's evidence of investor confidence.
The difference being, we know a lot more about Rivian's future than we can ever know about Facebook or Netflix or any of the companies that have inexplicably high valuations. As you put it, if the Rivian team executes with no bad luck, their potential is long-term.

 

[the long way downunder]

This week has been a solid week helping to restore investor confidence in $RIVN.
Inflation "news" provokes tailspin market selling … $RIVN holds $64.

… and the only EV ticker closing green in a sea of red.

 

[nikeykid]

back to $70

 

[Max]

back to $70

Bought at $52. Now the question is how long the ride up will last? Will there be another dip?

 

[mkg3]

Bought at $52. Now the question is how long the ride up will last? Will there be another dip?

Two globally sensitive items can swing without anything to do with Rivian.

1) Ukraine invasion status
2) CPI/PPI data prior to 3/10 Rivian earnings report

If you ride out 1 and 2, then look for options activities, which implies swing up or down in either direction shortly before 3/10.

I bought some at $56 for trade purposes and still have it but ready to sell. Also the 14-day RSI is around 50 so its very neutral and the prices can still run up before its over bought (at RSI 70+). That said, since the initial few days that ran up to $180ish, the Rivian RSI has never cross above 60 before it sold off. But keep in mind that there were days in January, where babies were thrown out with bath water so check your assumptions.

I only care about this stuff for trades and not for long term holds, but many robotrading is programmed to look for thing like this so momentum counts...

 

[moosehead]

Oil at $100 per barrel seems to be helping Rivian a bit, no?

 

[E.S.]

Oil at $100 per barrel seems to be helping Rivian a bit, no?

A little. Honestly, the bigger culprit here has been how technology overall has taken it to the face for the past 2 months (not just RIVN alone). I do believe once the public sees how Rivian's attempt to rev up ramping will have a significant impact as well as them addressing several features with OTA updates.

 

[GaryL]

Someone or entity seems to be accumulating RIVN stock. RIVN strength relative to the comparable stocks has been noticeable. It might be short covering but I don't have access to that data. Any thoughts?

 

[GaryL]

In a Motley Fool article dated Feb 18 it said Dan Loebs Third Point was building a position in Rivian. Thats going to get the attention of Rivian upper management in a hurry. Look for more focus shortly.

 

[the long way downunder]

Here's "week two" of a good week for $RIVN.
Following on from my post last week, I don't want to incautious, but this was a good week for $RIVN.
We had a little "steady … steady" moment as buyers once again rushed over $70, but we're back to clean trading in the $60 handle and that is proving to be a solid grip.
Look at this market today and this week.
Today, only FoMoCo (after some silly selling) is up (and deservedly so, but that's another story.)

Rivian exhibited some excessive swings, but this was a day when the whole the market cap of Rivian was swinging across the indexes.
The high fliers have seen their price arc downwards with a "crash and burn" trajectory … there's only so many buyers of an exercise bike or a video streaming service, video conferencing, online gambling, social media, etc. Who knew? : )
But we know that 90% of car buyers will be buying electric vehicles in the next 5 to 10 years. That's not a guess, that's not an "analysis." One of the car makers selling to those buyers (retail and commercial) is Rivian. Here's what that looked like for Rivian investors this week.

The reference for EV sentiment is Tesla and it held a commendable 2% sell-off. That Rivian was the same or up from Tesla suggests to me that there is stability.

If $RIVN had closed down 1% or 2% today, with $TSLA down 2%, I'd have had much the same opinion, with a degree more caution, but still predominantly confident we've weathered the worst of the speculator trading and we're seeing accumulation.
If Rivian had sold off today and nobody wanted to buy it back, I'd be posting a very different assessment.
If you're waiting for another chance to buy below $55, a lot of money today said you are not going to get that ticket to ride.

Looking at the week that was:

The 10% gain is misleading and just the happenstance of a day closing price Friday to Friday ... look at the consistent price behavior around $65 – to my reading of the tape, that's stability. It answers the question "can I buy $RIVN here for the long term and sleep at night, not worrying it's going to be down 50% next week or the week after?" (and not expecting it to be up 50% or 100% and be disappointed with anything less.)
If Putin and Biden can play "tank wars" with the world economy and $RIVN holds the same price as a month ago, I'm confident we have stability.

If $RIVN were 10% higher and above $70 closing out this week, I'd say I don't understand the buyers and I'd be looking for lower prices to accumulate. If $RIVN were below $60, I'd say I don't understand the sellers thinking that a 10 year plan to build electric vehicles is impacted by foreign affairs, nor does anyone have the inside scoop on Russia and Ukraine (certainly the US politicians have no clue … they've been "chicken little" for weeks.)
Thse political theater wars, these oil cartel death throes of the oil industry, the EV investor is reminded of Patton and Rommel – "Rommel, you magnificent bastard, I read your book!"

 

[Redline]

Someone or entity seems to be accumulating RIVN stock. RIVN strength relative to the comparable stocks has been noticeable. It might be short covering but I don't have access to that data. Any thoughts?

There has been multiple 6 and 7 figure purchases of Rivian Calls the last few weeks. There was nearly a $1m purchase of $64 March Weekly calls purchased again today.

Rivian was green nearly all week in a week that was a blood bath for “growth” stocks.

My best guess is something positive is coming from earnings.

 

[GaryL]

There has been multiple 6 and 7 figure purchases of Rivian Calls the last few weeks. There was nearly a $1m purchase of $64 March Weekly calls purchased again today.

Rivian was green nearly all week in a week that was a blood bath for “growth” stocks.

My best guess is something positive is coming from earnings.

That was the Reddit crews modus operandi large call buying to force option dealers to cover.

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