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"day one" of "not a good day" for $RIVN

moosehead

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^I honestly don’t think they’ll have a bottom line for years.

I also don’t think their 2022 production will be as described.

Do you?

Like most here, I had given Rivian the benefit of the doubt on production, deliveries, customer service, maintenance, charging network, charge curve, and a whole lot of other massive hurdles. So did shareholders.
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the long way downunder

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^You think their short term revenue will increase?

Perhaps in the intermediate or longer term, but feels like depositor cancellations will outpace new unit sales and a 20% price increase. I also agree with the retail shareholder being replaced by institutions in exponents over time - if they can show Rivian can clear the going concern threshold.

Wondering how this fubar price and delivery execution problem impacts goodwill. One could argue that GW and brand value was Rivian’s most valuable asset prior to yesterday afternoon.

As others correctly state, they had an army of evangelical brand promoters now gone, poof.
$1000 pre-order placeholders are not revenue.
Rivian will build the same number of cars in the next 12 months, but with prices 20% +/- higher (and presumably going higher every quarter) so, yes, revenue has increased, top line margin has increased.

The price range is the same as it was in May 2018. Rivian's stock price is a speculative estimate of future products, not 2022.

This price increase has disappointed people, some of whom are quitting their $1000 pre-order ... I think that characterizes them as other than "evangelical" … people with a pre-order expecting a vehicle in 2022 or 2023 at May 2018 prices are experiencing inflation and global supplier shortages that have sent prices skyrocketing – from lumber to food, the new car prices, the used car prices – Rivian should have handled this differently. But now, they have realistic price expectations and the queue of pre-orders will be be reduced by the number of people who were never going to buy an R1, clearing the production calendar to give a better expectation for when vehicles will be delivered.
 

moosehead

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^I see your point.

You are way more forgiving than most and therefore have outed me as a Rivian agnostic.
 
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Jmiller929

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A recurring headline that Rivian marketing and communications people should not be inviting.
An unmistakable reprisal to the MSRP increases. For the record: $RIVN touches new low $53 range.

I think this emotion and sentiment will be absorbed today (retail account trading tends to not continue beyond a day or three, so it could well be Monday trading close before the market discovers the impact of this negative sentiment.) This is an expensive way for Rivian to curve the revenue projections up 20% and "qualify" the pre-order queue. I think they could have chosen a more artful plan of communication to mitigate the blowback. I assume this is the first of their price rises to keep pace with Tesla pricing.

In a "three birds with one stone" Rivian has:
(1) knocked out the "dreaming" pre-order holders
(2) shaken off the "weak hands" $RIVN retail investors
(3) raised revenue projections.

I guess the execs at Rivian decided the net effect of higher margins, higher top line, and "qualifying" at least a year of pre-orders is more valuable on the earnings report than a few days of angry people with a pre-order expecting 2019 prices to apply to 2022 and 2023.

For this average bear, another look at buying at $55 was not what I wanted with my decaf this morning, but at least I get another bite at lowering my cost basis (currently just under $70 +/- as I buy back some calls thanks to this 10% kick-in-the-nuts) and selling some $50 April Puts here for $9-10. I'll wait and see if institutional traders try to take $RIVN out to the woodshed, before I get too aggressive, but the flat price action suggests the news is now in the price.
Wait for the $20 range
 
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Wait for the $20 range
So far, I can't convince anyone to give me some at $53. Maybe the last 15 minutes will bring out some weak hands dropping a couple into my hands … lord, please don't let it be a knife I'm catching! : )
 

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$RIVN trading $38-40 ahead of earnings with the call prices indicating expected upside (faint praise at $40, but there it is.)
This is not a "do or die" earnings, nor are any of the foreseeable quarters, but it's a hell of an opportunity for the CEO to take the communications people by the scruffs of their necks and throw out the mongrels. He should be announcing planned price increases for Q2 and Q3; a policy to retain pre-orders with an option to place a fixed price order, then forecast the planned 20%+ increases thru Q3.
All commodities prices are trending higher, wars take time to end, the pandemic isn't ending, supply side economics are trending more expensive … Rivian vehicle prices can't stay in the range they estimated in May 2018.
 

moosehead

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If Rivian's comms group made a massive price decision unilaterally, then we really are in deep doo doo.

That's on the C Suite and perhaps the Board.
 
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This is a really interesting thread. I feel like a time traveler jumping on page 1 then 5 then…. I just wish I could jump on page 20.
 
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This is a really interesting thread. I feel like a time traveler jumping on page 1 then 5 then…. I just wish I could jump on page 20.
I wish I had not been on page 1 …
 

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Just leave the emotion out of it and buy shares each week to build up a nice portfolio of shares and in 6 or 7 years take the massive profits and buy a R1T!
 

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A gruesome day for $RIVN. The numerical disadvantage of a $33 low is too much to lift – in other words, large percentage changes are a matter of pennies when the strike is $33-37 … no help for positions tens of dollars under water and option prices have shrunk accordingly, so the derivative leverage isn't enough to move the rock that started as a $100 boulder.

On an "up" day for the broad market and the prominent EV sector tickers all showing commensurate percentage gains, a new low for $RIVN demonstrates a conspicuous lack of interest from buyers and speculators, and a weakness in sellers willing to loosen their position at all time lows. Gruesome. Contrarian wisdom is to see broad market sentiment as reliably wrong and this marks the dismal bottom.

The Fed babbles tomorrow, the market will accept a 25 point rise or maybe 50 points (?) but will brutally punish anything else. Here's hoping $RIVN holds $36-37 but that reality of a $70 IPO shows the damage done.
 

dpc166

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A gruesome day for $RIVN. The numerical disadvantage of a $33 low is too much to lift – in other words, large percentage changes are a matter of pennies when the strike is $33-37 … no help for positions tens of dollars under water and option prices have shrunk accordingly, so the derivative leverage isn't enough to move the rock that started as a $100 boulder.

On an "up" day for the broad market and the prominent EV sector tickers all showing commensurate percentage gains, a new low for $RIVN demonstrates a conspicuous lack of interest from buyers and speculators, and a weakness in sellers willing to loosen their position at all time lows. Gruesome. Contrarian wisdom is to see broad market sentiment as reliably wrong and this marks the dismal bottom.

The Fed babbles tomorrow, the market will accept a 25 point rise or maybe 50 points (?) but will brutally punish anything else. Here's hoping $RIVN holds $36-37 but that reality of a $70 IPO shows the damage done.
Doing better now and back up to about $45. Glad I got in some low shares.
 

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I'm almost back to break even.. No news from Rivian appears to be good news for the stock.
 

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