the long way downunder
Well-Known Member
- Thread starter
- #1
This is "day one" of "not a good day" for $RIVN. Despite globally good news for Rivian and their production exceeding and excelling, despite a secular rally against the previous session sell-off, $RIVN did not find a bid.
While I remain long term (five to ten year time frame) bullish and confident that Rivian has "the right stuff" in engineering, product design, executive and they have the most important resource, capital, I think the equity market has voiced a vote of lower prices.
Glass half empty, there's a lot of "individual, self-directed retail investors" who have been burned. If $RIVN trades below the first tick of the IPO then literally 100% of buyers are under water.
Glass half full, any price within 10% or 20% of the IPO valuation range (roughly $50 to $80, so call it $40 on the low side to $100 on the high side) is a long term high probability of outperforming the S&P.
On the list of unknowns is the intention of Ford and other institutional investors selling once their restrictions expire. In other words, while nobody serious values Rivian as a $100B car company today, do buyers of $RIVN at $100 intend to hold or to be part of the rush to the exits if Ford and others start selling.
$RIVN started life in a healthy range (it did not skyrocket to unsustainable $200+ altitudes) today is, in my not so humble, "day one" of price discovery.
Here's hoping the market discounts $RIVN to $110 and holds.
While I remain long term (five to ten year time frame) bullish and confident that Rivian has "the right stuff" in engineering, product design, executive and they have the most important resource, capital, I think the equity market has voiced a vote of lower prices.
Glass half empty, there's a lot of "individual, self-directed retail investors" who have been burned. If $RIVN trades below the first tick of the IPO then literally 100% of buyers are under water.
Glass half full, any price within 10% or 20% of the IPO valuation range (roughly $50 to $80, so call it $40 on the low side to $100 on the high side) is a long term high probability of outperforming the S&P.
On the list of unknowns is the intention of Ford and other institutional investors selling once their restrictions expire. In other words, while nobody serious values Rivian as a $100B car company today, do buyers of $RIVN at $100 intend to hold or to be part of the rush to the exits if Ford and others start selling.
$RIVN started life in a healthy range (it did not skyrocket to unsustainable $200+ altitudes) today is, in my not so humble, "day one" of price discovery.
Here's hoping the market discounts $RIVN to $110 and holds.
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