"day one" of "not a good day" for $RIVN

[the long way downunder]

Numbers? Just pointing out that compared to defense stocks the Grain complex has made a large move.

Russia "owns" wheat.

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[GaryL]

Russia "owns" wheat.

Russia/Ukraine accounts for nearly 31% of world wheat, barley and sunoil trade. Ukraine is a major corn exporter. On the Input side Russia and Belarus are major exporters of Potash and Nitrogen fertilizer which if in short supply will effect domestic US yields. A large change from the 70's "Great Grain Robbery"

 

[moosehead]

RIVN deserves a golf clap amidst significantly poor general conditions and high anxiety.

 

[SANZC02]

RIVN deserves a golf clap amidst significantly poor general conditions and high anxiety.

 

[Redline]

We've had a month straight of multiple large bullish option flows into RIVN. Strong during weak tape...

I'm guessing a surprise during earnings.

 

[kurtlikevonnegut]

I actually wonder if Lucids very poor production update will be a boon to RIVN tomorrow.

 

[Redline]

I actually wonder if Lucids very poor production update will be a boon to RIVN tomorrow.

That's not how the EV stocks trade. The Lucid weakness is hitting Rivian today.

 

[RivianDeac]

Woot! Time to buy back in. I am crushing this volatility!

 

[the long way downunder]

That's not how the EV stocks trade. The Lucid weakness is hitting Rivian today.

If you've figured out how "EV" stocks trade, please let me know.
I've been doing well with $TSLA long and short, $RIVN is too new to say, but it's reasonably stable here in the $60 range, but other EV stocks are all over the place.
I half expected $LCID to be trading $10 today. I wonder what speculators are thinking.
I think it's strange to see Rivian, on no news, trading through such a wide range … these 5% moves intraday, "every" day … what are traders thinking?
It certainly makes it "easy" to trade the range, but I know one day I'm going to get caught on the upside, not the down, so I'm staying heavily long (and still below my $70 cost basis … so don't take my advice! : )

 

[Max]

I think it's strange to see Rivian, on no news, trading through such a wide range … these 5% moves intraday, "every" day … what are traders thinking?

‘Not that I understand any of this but I am thinking being stable around 60s makes it inviting for day traders to contribute to fluctuations.

As for stability of it over time, I am thinking as the new casual investors see more Rivians on the street or on their neighbor’s driveway, they will take the company more seriously and add to the resiliency of the stock by trying to get in when it feels a bit safer than it did in January.

I have to say the more baffling, the more interesting it is to watch for me. Tesla with 30% margins and it’s expansion ambitions seem bomb proof. If it remains ridiculously high, it’s valuation may justify higher prices for Rivian over time. On the other hand if Kia , VW , Ford and GM can figure out how to be profitable with compelling products at large scale and reasonable price, that could get people to question some of the valuations for newer EV companies. Tesla has successfully evaded that judgment by labeling itself as a tech, energy robotic …. company that is open to venture in new territories. Although I think Rivian has done a great job establishing it’s own image and culture, I doubt it could become it’s own religion like Tesla (which is why I like the Rivian more). I had to quit the Tesla forum because of a few obnoxious Tesla fanatics. Rivian has a much more positive vibe. Hopefully that and more robust deliveries will help it’s growth. Short term, there will be challenges; pandemic and international conflicts may have more monkey wrenches in store for us.

 

[lostpacket]

Good morning RIVN

I only had a tiny position of 35 shares @ ~60 and dumped right at open. I cant see how this is going to play well through earnings.

The street often likes prices increases but Rivian way overdid it, especially if they lose ~50% of their preorders.

 

[ironpig]

Well, so much for $RIVN and $TSLA … collateral damage.
I can't advocate selling, for risk of missing the upswing.
I can't advocate buying this (limitless) dip.

The US Govt hasn't learned much in the last 20+ years of "forever" wars. The military industrial complex valuations soar on news of nuclear saber rattling while wholly US companies … employers … people … lose billions for fear of the US once again the uninvited oaf landing on foreign soil, picking a fight it cannot win.

Another nightmare US administration, just like the previous one and the one before them.

Agreed - And the comment about Military Industrial Complex is so true - it's been decades of constant overspending of taxpayer money no matter what party is in power in the legislative or executive branches.

We should be taking 10% of the Massive Defense budget and build out an EV industrial complex. We already subsidize Oil and Bombs, why not subsidize all EVs more directly?

 

[the long way downunder]

A recurring headline that Rivian marketing and communications people should not be inviting.
An unmistakable reprisal to the MSRP increases. For the record: $RIVN touches new low $53 range.

I think this emotion and sentiment will be absorbed today (retail account trading tends to not continue beyond a day or three, so it could well be Monday trading close before the market discovers the impact of this negative sentiment.) This is an expensive way for Rivian to curve the revenue projections up 20% and "qualify" the pre-order queue. I think they could have chosen a more artful plan of communication to mitigate the blowback. I assume this is the first of their price rises to keep pace with Tesla pricing.

In a "three birds with one stone" Rivian has:
(1) knocked out the "dreaming" pre-order holders
(2) shaken off the "weak hands" $RIVN retail investors
(3) raised revenue projections.

I guess the execs at Rivian decided the net effect of higher margins, higher top line, and "qualifying" at least a year of pre-orders is more valuable on the earnings report than a few days of angry people with a pre-order expecting 2019 prices to apply to 2022 and 2023.

For this average bear, another look at buying at $55 was not what I wanted with my decaf this morning, but at least I get another bite at lowering my cost basis (currently just under $70 +/- as I buy back some calls thanks to this 10% kick-in-the-nuts) and selling some $50 April Puts here for $9-10. I'll wait and see if institutional traders try to take $RIVN out to the woodshed, before I get too aggressive, but the flat price action suggests the news is now in the price.

 

[moosehead]

^You think their short term revenue will increase?

Perhaps in the intermediate or longer term, but feels like depositor cancellations will outpace new unit sales and a 20% price increase. I also agree with the retail shareholder being replaced by institutions in exponents over time - if they can show Rivian can clear the going concern threshold.

Wondering how this fubar price and delivery execution problem impacts goodwill. One could argue that GW and brand value was Rivian’s most valuable asset prior to yesterday afternoon.

As others correctly state, they had an army of evangelical brand promoters now gone, poof.

 

[kurtlikevonnegut]

^You think their short term revenue will increase?

Perhaps in the intermediate or longer term, but feels like depositor cancellations will outpace new unit sales and a 20% price increase. I also agree with the retail shareholder being replaced by institutions by exponents over time.

Like any business owner, wondering how this fubar price and delivery execution problem impacts goodwill. One could argue that GW and brand value was Rivian’s most valuable asset prior to yesterday afternoon.

As others correctly state, they had an army of evangelical brand promoters now gone, poof.

To me it sounds like you are assuming this will impact their immediate bottom line, which is dubious. As long as they can still maximize production in 2022 (retain 25,000 preorders at new pricing) this is guaranteed to have a positive revenue impact in the short term. It's only if their preorders drop below maximum production for 2022 by 10% or so that it negatively impacts their 2022 revenue.

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